A stochastic dynamic programming approach to analyze adaptation to climate change – Application to groundwater irrigation in India
•Uncertainty and risk significantly influence farmers’ decisions.•Farmer decisions are modeled by a stochastic dynamic programming approach.•Farmer decisions concern investment in irrigation, crop choice, irrigation strategy.•Water management policies under climate change scenarios are investigated....
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| Veröffentlicht in: | European journal of operational research Jg. 265; H. 3; S. 1033 - 1045 |
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| Format: | Journal Article |
| Sprache: | Englisch |
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Elsevier B.V
16.03.2018
Elsevier |
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| ISSN: | 0377-2217, 1872-6860 |
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| Abstract | •Uncertainty and risk significantly influence farmers’ decisions.•Farmer decisions are modeled by a stochastic dynamic programming approach.•Farmer decisions concern investment in irrigation, crop choice, irrigation strategy.•Water management policies under climate change scenarios are investigated.
Agricultural sustainability under climate change is a major challenge in semi-arid countries, mainly because of over-exploited water resources. This article explores short- and long-term consequences of farmers’ adaptation decisions on groundwater resource use, under several climate change scenarios. We model farmer decisions on crop choice, investment in irrigation and water application rates, using a stochastic dynamic programming model with embedded year and season decision stages. Several sources of risk are considered that may impact farmer decisions, with poor rainfall affecting crop yield and market prices, while driving crop and borewell failure probabilities. We further investigate the performance of water management policies for groundwater resource conservation. This is achieved through policy simulations from a calibrated version of the stochastic dynamic model, using data from a field survey in the Berambadi watershed, Karnataka state, southern India. The most relevant and novel aspect of our model is the joint consideration of (i) investment decisions about irrigation over a long-term horizon and with the probability of borewell failure, (ii) several water management policies, and (iii) detailed farmers’ water practices and the representation of crop choice for each agricultural season with crop failure. |
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| AbstractList | Agricultural sustainability under climate change is a major challenge in semi-arid countries, mainly because of over-exploited water resources. This article explores short- and long-term consequences of farmers’ adaptation decisions on groundwater resource use, under several climate change scenarios. We model farmer decisions on crop choice, investment in irrigation and water application rates, using a stochastic dynamic programming model with embedded year and season decision stages. Several sources of risk are considered that may impact farmer decisions, with poor rainfall affecting crop yield and market prices, while driving crop and borewell failure probabilities. We further investigate the performance of water management policies for groundwater resource conservation. This is achieved through policy simulations from a calibrated version of the stochastic dynamic model, using data from a field survey in the Berambadi watershed, Karnataka state, southern India. The most relevant and novel aspect of our model is the joint consideration of i) investment decisions about irrigation over a long-term horizon and with the probability of borewell failure, ii) several water management policies, iii) detailed farmers’ water practices and the representation of crop choice for each agricultural season with crop failure. •Uncertainty and risk significantly influence farmers’ decisions.•Farmer decisions are modeled by a stochastic dynamic programming approach.•Farmer decisions concern investment in irrigation, crop choice, irrigation strategy.•Water management policies under climate change scenarios are investigated. Agricultural sustainability under climate change is a major challenge in semi-arid countries, mainly because of over-exploited water resources. This article explores short- and long-term consequences of farmers’ adaptation decisions on groundwater resource use, under several climate change scenarios. We model farmer decisions on crop choice, investment in irrigation and water application rates, using a stochastic dynamic programming model with embedded year and season decision stages. Several sources of risk are considered that may impact farmer decisions, with poor rainfall affecting crop yield and market prices, while driving crop and borewell failure probabilities. We further investigate the performance of water management policies for groundwater resource conservation. This is achieved through policy simulations from a calibrated version of the stochastic dynamic model, using data from a field survey in the Berambadi watershed, Karnataka state, southern India. The most relevant and novel aspect of our model is the joint consideration of (i) investment decisions about irrigation over a long-term horizon and with the probability of borewell failure, (ii) several water management policies, and (iii) detailed farmers’ water practices and the representation of crop choice for each agricultural season with crop failure. |
| Author | Bergez, Jacques-Eric Robert, Marion Thomas, Alban |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Marion surname: Robert fullname: Robert, Marion email: m.robert.marion@gmail.com organization: AGIR, Université Fédérale de Toulouse, INRA, INPT, F-31326 Castanet-Tolosan, France – sequence: 2 givenname: Jacques-Eric surname: Bergez fullname: Bergez, Jacques-Eric organization: AGIR, Université Fédérale de Toulouse, INRA, INPT, F-31326 Castanet-Tolosan, France – sequence: 3 givenname: Alban orcidid: 0000-0002-8730-2487 surname: Thomas fullname: Thomas, Alban organization: Toulouse School of Economics, INRA, University of Toulouse, F-31000 Toulouse, France |
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| Cites_doi | 10.2307/1243989 10.2307/1242967 10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.03.004 10.1016/j.ejor.2015.12.025 10.1093/ajae/aaq052 10.1016/j.agwat.2015.03.014 10.1007/s13593-016-0402-x 10.1111/j.1467-8489.2009.00460.x 10.1002/2014WR015620 10.1007/s11269-016-1227-8 10.1016/j.ejor.2014.10.018 10.3168/jds.2012-6086 10.1016/j.jenvman.2013.04.037 10.1007/s10040-011-0745-y 10.1002/hyp.7696 10.1016/j.econlet.2013.04.006 10.1007/s11123-012-0268-0 10.1029/1998WR900116 10.1093/ajae/aau055 10.1029/2003WR002877 10.1080/01436597.2013.786291 10.1287/opre.50.3.399.7749 10.1016/0095-0696(88)90030-7 |
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| Snippet | •Uncertainty and risk significantly influence farmers’ decisions.•Farmer decisions are modeled by a stochastic dynamic programming approach.•Farmer decisions... Agricultural sustainability under climate change is a major challenge in semi-arid countries, mainly because of over-exploited water resources. This article... |
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| Title | A stochastic dynamic programming approach to analyze adaptation to climate change – Application to groundwater irrigation in India |
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