Recent trends in wind speed across Saudi Arabia, 1978–2013: a break in the stilling

ABSTRACT We analyse recent trends and variability of observed near‐surface wind speed from 19 stations across Saudi Arabia (SA) for 1978–2013. The raw wind speed data set was subject to a robust homogenization protocol, and the stations were then classified under three categories: (1) coast, (2) inl...

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Vydáno v:International journal of climatology Ročník 38; číslo S1; s. e966 - e984
Hlavní autoři: Azorin‐Molina, Cesar, Rehman, Shafiqur, Guijarro, Jose A., McVicar, Tim R., Minola, Lorenzo, Chen, Deliang, Vicente‐Serrano, Sergio M.
Médium: Journal Article
Jazyk:angličtina
Vydáno: Chichester, UK John Wiley & Sons, Ltd 01.04.2018
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Témata:
Atmospheric circulation
Atmospheric forcing
Autumn
china
Climate Science
Coastal environments
field significance
global
homogenization
iberian peninsula
impact
Klimatvetenskap
North Atlantic Oscillation
Ocean-atmosphere system
oscillation
resource assessment
Saudi Arabia
Southern Oscillation
spain
Spring
Spring (season)
Stations
Statistical analysis
Statistical significance
stilling break
Summer
Surface wind
teleconnection indices
Trends
Variability
Wind speed
Winds
Winter
Saudi Arabia
ISSN:0899-8418, 1097-0088
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Shrnutí:ABSTRACT We analyse recent trends and variability of observed near‐surface wind speed from 19 stations across Saudi Arabia (SA) for 1978–2013. The raw wind speed data set was subject to a robust homogenization protocol, and the stations were then classified under three categories: (1) coast, (2) inland and (3) mountain stations. The results reveal a statistically significant (p < 0.05) reduction of wind speed of −0.058 m s−1 dec−1 at annual scale across SA, with decreases in winter (−0.100 m s−1 dec−1) and spring (−0.066 m s−1 dec−1) also detected, being non‐significant in summer and autumn. The coast, inland and mountain series showed similar magnitude and significance of the declining trends across all SA series, except for summer when a decoupled variability and opposite trends of wind speed between the coast and inland series (significant declines: −0.101 m s−1 dec−1 and −0.065 m s−1 dec−1, respectively) and the high‐elevation mountain series (significant increase: +0.041 m s−1 dec−1) were observed. Even though wind speed declines dominated across much of the country throughout the year, only a small number of stations showed statistically significant negative trends in summer and autumn. Most interestingly, a break in the stilling was observed in the last 12‐year (2002–2013) period (+0.057 m s−1 dec−1; not significant) compared to the significant slowdown detected in the previous 24‐year (1978–2001) period (−0.089 m s−1 dec−1). This break in the slowdown of winds, even followed by a non‐significant recovery trend, occurred in all seasons (and months) except for some winter months. Atmospheric circulation plays a key role in explaining the variability of winds, with the North Atlantic Oscillation positively affecting the annual wind speed, the Southern Oscillation displaying a significant negative relationship with winds in winter, spring and autumn, and the Eastern Atlantic negatively modulating winds in summer. Wind speed declined significantly across Saudi Arabia for 1978–2013. A recent break in the stilling has been detected for 2002–2013. Atmospheric circulation modes partly explain the variability of surface winds.
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ISSN:0899-8418
1097-0088
DOI:10.1002/joc.5423