The Political Geography of the January 6 Insurrectionists

What are the local political, economic, and social conditions of the communities that sent insurrectionists to the US Capitol in support of Donald Trump? Using a new dataset of the home counties of individuals charged for the Capitol insurrection, we tested two prominent theories of electoral populi...

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Published in:PS, political science & politics Vol. 57; no. 3; pp. 329 - 339
Main Authors: Pape, Robert A., Larson, Kyle D., Ruby, Keven G.
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: New York, USA Cambridge University Press 01.07.2024
Subjects:
Anxiety
Community
Counties
Demographic change
Economic conditions
Economic Factors
Election results
Elections
Ethnic Groups
Fear
Fear & phobias
Hispanic Americans
Human Geography
Manufacturing
Minority & ethnic groups
Minority & ethnic violence
Minority Groups
Political geography
Political power
Political violence
Politics
Population decline
Populism
Presidential elections
Racial Identification
Rebellions
Rhetoric
Social conditions & trends
Structural Analysis (Linguistics)
Structural Analysis (Science)
Trump, Donald J
Violence
White people
Whites
United States > US
ISSN:1049-0965, 1537-5935
Online Access:Get full text
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Abstract What are the local political, economic, and social conditions of the communities that sent insurrectionists to the US Capitol in support of Donald Trump? Using a new dataset of the home counties of individuals charged for the Capitol insurrection, we tested two prominent theories of electoral populism and support for populist leaders like Donald Trump—demographic change and manufacturing decline—and whether they also explain violent populism. We also examined the effects of local political conditions. We find that white population decline is a stronger predictor of violent populism and that counties that voted for Trump were less likely to fight for Trump. The effect of white population decline is even greater in counties whose US House Representative rejected the 2020 election results. These findings suggest scholars should resist assuming violent populism is merely an extension of electoral populism, and solutions to one will not necessarily remedy the other.
AbstractList What are the local political, economic, and social conditions of the communities that sent insurrectionists to the US Capitol in support of Donald Trump? Using a new dataset of the home counties of individuals charged for the Capitol insurrection, we tested two prominent theories of electoral populism and support for populist leaders like Donald Trump—demographic change and manufacturing decline—and whether they also explain violent populism. We also examined the effects of local political conditions. We find that white population decline is a stronger predictor of violent populism and that counties that voted for Trump were less likely to fight for Trump. The effect of white population decline is even greater in counties whose US House Representative rejected the 2020 election results. These findings suggest scholars should resist assuming violent populism is merely an extension of electoral populism, and solutions to one will not necessarily remedy the other.
Author Larson, Kyle D.
Ruby, Keven G.
Pape, Robert A.
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  givenname: Robert A.
  orcidid: 0000-0001-6622-1103
  surname: Pape
  fullname: Pape, Robert A.
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  givenname: Kyle D.
  orcidid: 0000-0003-0772-0687
  surname: Larson
  fullname: Larson, Kyle D.
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  organization: Chicago Project on Security and Threats, University of Chicago, USA
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  givenname: Keven G.
  orcidid: 0000-0002-3274-5440
  surname: Ruby
  fullname: Ruby, Keven G.
  email: kruby@uchicago.edu
  organization: Chicago Project on Security and Threats, University of Chicago, USA
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Copyright The Author(s), 2024. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of American Political Science Association
The Author(s), 2024. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of American Political Science Association. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution License This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited. (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.
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RelatedPersons Trump, Donald J
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Snippet What are the local political, economic, and social conditions of the communities that sent insurrectionists to the US Capitol in support of Donald Trump? Using...
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SubjectTerms Anxiety
Community
Counties
Demographic change
Economic conditions
Economic Factors
Election results
Elections
Ethnic Groups
Fear
Fear & phobias
Hispanic Americans
Human Geography
Manufacturing
Minority & ethnic groups
Minority & ethnic violence
Minority Groups
Political geography
Political power
Political violence
Politics
Population decline
Populism
Presidential elections
Racial Identification
Rebellions
Rhetoric
Social conditions & trends
Structural Analysis (Linguistics)
Structural Analysis (Science)
Trump, Donald J
Violence
White people
Whites
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Title The Political Geography of the January 6 Insurrectionists
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