Uncertainty in Projection of Climate Extremes: A Comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6

Climate projections by global climate models (GCMs) are subject to considerable and multi-source uncertainties. This study aims to compare the uncertainty in projection of precipitation and temperature extremes between Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 5 (CMIP5) and phase 6 (CMIP6),...

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Published in:	Journal of Meteorological Research Vol. 35; no. 4; pp. 646 - 662
Main Authors:	Zhang, Shaobo, Chen, Jie
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	Beijing The Chinese Meteorological Society 01.08.2021 State Key Laboratory of Water Resources&Hydropower Engineering Science,Wuhan University,299 Bayi Road,Wuchang District,Wuhan 430072 Hubei Provincial Key Lab of Water System Science for Sponge City Construction,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072
Subjects:	Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution Atmospheric Sciences Earth and Environmental Science Earth Sciences Geophysics and Environmental Physics Meteorology Original Paper Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 5 (CMIP5) and phase 6 (CMIP6) uncertainty contribution climate projection uncertainty extreme precipitation and temperature
ISSN:	2095-6037, 2198-0934
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Abstract	Climate projections by global climate models (GCMs) are subject to considerable and multi-source uncertainties. This study aims to compare the uncertainty in projection of precipitation and temperature extremes between Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 5 (CMIP5) and phase 6 (CMIP6), using 24 GCMs forced by 3 emission scenarios in each phase of CMIP. In this study, the total uncertainty ( T ) of climate projections is decomposed into the greenhouse gas emission scenario uncertainty ( S , mean inter-scenario variance of the signals over all the models), GCM uncertainty ( M , mean inter-model variance of signals over all emission scenarios), and internal climate variability uncertainty ( V , variance in noises over all models, emission scenarios, and projection lead times); namely, T = S + M + V . The results of analysis demonstrate that the magnitudes of S, M , and T present similarly increasing trends over the 21st century. The magnitudes of S, M, V , and T in CMIP6 are 0.94–0.96, 1.38–2.07, 1.04–1.69, and 1.20–1.93 times as high as those in CMIP5. Both CMIP5 and CMIP6 exhibit similar spatial variation patterns of uncertainties and similar ranks of contributions from different sources of uncertainties. The uncertainty for precipitation is lower in midlatitudes and parts of the equatorial region, but higher in low latitudes and the polar region. The uncertainty for temperature is higher over land areas than oceans, and higher in the Northern Hemisphere than the Southern Hemisphere. For precipitation, T is mainly determined by M and V in the early 21st century, by M and S at the end of the 21st century; and the turning point will appear in the 2070s. For temperature, T is dominated by M in the early 21st century, and by S at the end of the 21st century, with the turning point occuring in the 2060s. The relative contributions of S to T in CMIP6 (12.5%–14.3% for precipitation and 31.6%–36.2% for temperature) are lower than those in CMIP5 (15.1%–17.5% for precipitation and 38.6%–43.8% for temperature). By contrast, the relative contributions of M in CMIP6 (50.6%–59.8% for precipitation and 59.4%–60.3% for temperature) are higher than those in CMIP5 (47.5%–57.9% for precipitation and 51.7%–53.6% for temperature). The higher magnitude and relative contributions of M in CMIP6 indicate larger difference among projections of various GCMs. Therefore, more GCMs are needed to ensure the robustness of climate projections.
AbstractList	Climate projections by global climate models (GCMs) are subject to considerable and multi-source uncertainties. This study aims to compare the uncertainty in projection of precipitation and temperature extremes between Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 5 (CMIP5) and phase 6 (CMIP6), using 24 GCMs forced by 3 emis-sion scenarios in each phase of CMIP. In this study, the total uncertainty (T) of climate projections is decomposed in-to the greenhouse gas emission scenario uncertainty (S, mean inter-scenario variance of the signals over all the mod-els), GCM uncertainty (M, mean inter-model variance of signals over all emission scenarios), and internal climate variability uncertainty (V, variance in noises over all models, emission scenarios, and projection lead times); namely, T = S + M + V. The results of analysis demonstrate that the magnitudes of S, M, and T present similarly increasing trends over the 21st century. The magnitudes of S, M, V, and T in CMIP6 are 0.94–0.96, 1.38–2.07, 1.04–1.69, and 1.20–1.93 times as high as those in CMIP5. Both CMIP5 and CMIP6 exhibit similar spatial variation patterns of un-certainties and similar ranks of contributions from different sources of uncertainties. The uncertainty for precipitation is lower in midlatitudes and parts of the equatorial region, but higher in low latitudes and the polar region. The uncer-tainty for temperature is higher over land areas than oceans, and higher in the Northern Hemisphere than the South-ern Hemisphere. For precipitation, T is mainly determined by M and V in the early 21st century, by M and S at the end of the 21st century; and the turning point will appear in the 2070s. For temperature, T is dominated by M in the early 21st century, and by S at the end of the 21st century, with the turning point occuring in the 2060s. The relative contributions of S to T in CMIP6 (12.5％–14.3％ for precipitation and 31.6％–36.2％ for temperature) are lower than those in CMIP5 (15.1％–17.5％ for precipitation and 38.6％–43.8％ for temperature). By contrast, the relative contri-butions of M in CMIP6 (50.6％–59.8％ for precipitation and 59.4％–60.3％ for temperature) are higher than those in CMIP5 (47.5％–57.9％ for precipitation and 51.7％–53.6％ for temperature). The higher magnitude and relative con-tributions of M in CMIP6 indicate larger difference among projections of various GCMs. Therefore, more GCMs are needed to ensure the robustness of climate projections. Climate projections by global climate models (GCMs) are subject to considerable and multi-source uncertainties. This study aims to compare the uncertainty in projection of precipitation and temperature extremes between Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 5 (CMIP5) and phase 6 (CMIP6), using 24 GCMs forced by 3 emission scenarios in each phase of CMIP. In this study, the total uncertainty ( T ) of climate projections is decomposed into the greenhouse gas emission scenario uncertainty ( S , mean inter-scenario variance of the signals over all the models), GCM uncertainty ( M , mean inter-model variance of signals over all emission scenarios), and internal climate variability uncertainty ( V , variance in noises over all models, emission scenarios, and projection lead times); namely, T = S + M + V . The results of analysis demonstrate that the magnitudes of S, M , and T present similarly increasing trends over the 21st century. The magnitudes of S, M, V , and T in CMIP6 are 0.94–0.96, 1.38–2.07, 1.04–1.69, and 1.20–1.93 times as high as those in CMIP5. Both CMIP5 and CMIP6 exhibit similar spatial variation patterns of uncertainties and similar ranks of contributions from different sources of uncertainties. The uncertainty for precipitation is lower in midlatitudes and parts of the equatorial region, but higher in low latitudes and the polar region. The uncertainty for temperature is higher over land areas than oceans, and higher in the Northern Hemisphere than the Southern Hemisphere. For precipitation, T is mainly determined by M and V in the early 21st century, by M and S at the end of the 21st century; and the turning point will appear in the 2070s. For temperature, T is dominated by M in the early 21st century, and by S at the end of the 21st century, with the turning point occuring in the 2060s. The relative contributions of S to T in CMIP6 (12.5%–14.3% for precipitation and 31.6%–36.2% for temperature) are lower than those in CMIP5 (15.1%–17.5% for precipitation and 38.6%–43.8% for temperature). By contrast, the relative contributions of M in CMIP6 (50.6%–59.8% for precipitation and 59.4%–60.3% for temperature) are higher than those in CMIP5 (47.5%–57.9% for precipitation and 51.7%–53.6% for temperature). The higher magnitude and relative contributions of M in CMIP6 indicate larger difference among projections of various GCMs. Therefore, more GCMs are needed to ensure the robustness of climate projections.
Author	Chen, Jie Zhang, Shaobo
AuthorAffiliation	State Key Laboratory of Water Resources&Hydropower Engineering Science,Wuhan University,299 Bayi Road,Wuchang District,Wuhan 430072;Hubei Provincial Key Lab of Water System Science for Sponge City Construction,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072
AuthorAffiliation_xml	– name: State Key Laboratory of Water Resources&Hydropower Engineering Science,Wuhan University,299 Bayi Road,Wuchang District,Wuhan 430072;Hubei Provincial Key Lab of Water System Science for Sponge City Construction,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072
Author_xml	– sequence: 1 givenname: Shaobo surname: Zhang fullname: Zhang, Shaobo organization: State Key Laboratory of Water Resources & Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Hubei Provincial Key Lab of Water System Science for Sponge City Construction, Wuhan University – sequence: 2 givenname: Jie surname: Chen fullname: Chen, Jie email: jiechen@whu.edu.cn organization: State Key Laboratory of Water Resources & Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Hubei Provincial Key Lab of Water System Science for Sponge City Construction, Wuhan University
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Keywords	Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 5 (CMIP5) and phase 6 (CMIP6) uncertainty contribution climate projection uncertainty extreme precipitation and temperature
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Snippet	Climate projections by global climate models (GCMs) are subject to considerable and multi-source uncertainties. This study aims to compare the uncertainty in...
SourceID	wanfang crossref springer
SourceType	Aggregation Database Enrichment Source Index Database Publisher
StartPage	646
SubjectTerms	Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution Atmospheric Sciences Earth and Environmental Science Earth Sciences Geophysics and Environmental Physics Meteorology Original Paper
Title	Uncertainty in Projection of Climate Extremes: A Comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6
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