Forced and Internal Components of Winter Air Temperature Trends over North America during the past 50 Years Mechanisms and Implications
This study elucidates the physical mechanisms underlying internal and forced components of winter surface air temperature (SAT) trends over North America during the past 50 years (1963–2012) using a combined observational and modeling framework. The modeling framework consists of 30 simulations with...
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| Vydáno v: | Journal of climate Ročník 29; číslo 6; s. 2237 - 2258 |
|---|---|
| Hlavní autoři: | , , |
| Médium: | Journal Article |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
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Boston
American Meteorological Society
15.03.2016
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| Témata: | |
| ISSN: | 0894-8755, 1520-0442 |
| On-line přístup: | Získat plný text |
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| Abstract | This study elucidates the physical mechanisms underlying internal and forced components of winter surface air temperature (SAT) trends over North America during the past 50 years (1963–2012) using a combined observational and modeling framework. The modeling framework consists of 30 simulations with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) at 1° latitude–longitude resolution, each of which is subject to an identical scenario of historical radiative forcing but starts from a slightly different atmospheric state. Hence, any spread within the ensemble results from unpredictable internal variability superimposed upon the forced climate change signal. Constructed atmospheric circulation analogs are used to estimate the dynamical contribution to forced and internal components of SAT trends: thermodynamic contributions are obtained as a residual. Internal circulation trends are estimated to account for approximately one-third of the observed wintertime warming trend over North America and more than half locally over parts of Canada and the United States. Removing the effects of internal atmospheric circulation variability narrows the spread of SAT trends within the CESM ensemble and brings the observed trends closer to the model’s radiatively forced response. In addition, removing internal dynamics approximately doubles the signal-to-noise ratio of the simulated SAT trends and substantially advances the “time of emergence” of the forced component of SAT anomalies. The methodological framework proposed here provides a general template for improving physical understanding and interpretation of observed and simulated climate trends worldwide and may help to reconcile the diversity of SAT trends across the models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). |
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| AbstractList | This study elucidates the physical mechanisms underlying internal and forced components of winter surface air temperature (SAT) trends over North America during the past 50 years (1963–2012) using a combined observational and modeling framework. The modeling framework consists of 30 simulations with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) at 1° latitude–longitude resolution, each of which is subject to an identical scenario of historical radiative forcing but starts from a slightly different atmospheric state. Hence, any spread within the ensemble results from unpredictable internal variability superimposed upon the forced climate change signal. Constructed atmospheric circulation analogs are used to estimate the dynamical contribution to forced and internal components of SAT trends: thermodynamic contributions are obtained as a residual. Internal circulation trends are estimated to account for approximately one-third of the observed wintertime warming trend over North America and more than half locally over parts of Canada and the United States. Removing the effects of internal atmospheric circulation variability narrows the spread of SAT trends within the CESM ensemble and brings the observed trends closer to the model’s radiatively forced response. In addition, removing internal dynamics approximately doubles the signal-to-noise ratio of the simulated SAT trends and substantially advances the “time of emergence” of the forced component of SAT anomalies. The methodological framework proposed here provides a general template for improving physical understanding and interpretation of observed and simulated climate trends worldwide and may help to reconcile the diversity of SAT trends across the models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This study elucidates the physical mechanisms underlying internal and forced componentsof winter surface air temperature (SAT) trends over North America during the past 50 years (1963-2012) using a combined observational and modeling framework. The modeling framework consists of 30 simulations with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) at 18 latitude-longitude resolution, each of which is subject to an identical scenario of historical radiative forcing but starts from a slightly different atmospheric state. Hence, any spread within the ensemble results from unpredictable internal variability superimposed upon the forced climate change signal. Constructed atmospheric circulation analogs are used to estimate the dynamical contribution to forced and internal components of SAT trends: thermodynamic contributions are obtained as a residual. Internal circulation trends are estimated to account for approximately one-third of the observed wintertime warming trend over North America and more than half locally over parts of Canada and the United States. Removing the effects of internal atmospheric circulation variability narrows the spread of SAT trends within the CESM ensemble and brings the observed trends closer to the model's radiatively forced response. In addition, removing internal dynamicsapproximately doubles the signal-to-noise ratioof thesimulated SATtrends and substantiallyadvances the "time of emergence" of the forced component of SAT anomalies. The methodological framework proposed here provides a general template for improving physical understanding and interpretation of observed and simulated climate trends worldwide and may helpto reconcilethe diversity ofSAT trends acrossthe models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). |
| Author | Terray, Laurent Deser, Clara Phillips, Adam S. |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Clara surname: Deser fullname: Deser, Clara organization: Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado – sequence: 2 givenname: Laurent surname: Terray fullname: Terray, Laurent organization: Sciences de L’Univers au CERFACS, URA-1875, CERFACS/CNRS, Toulouse, France – sequence: 3 givenname: Adam S. surname: Phillips fullname: Phillips, Adam S. organization: Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado |
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| SubjectTerms | Air temperature Atmospheric circulation Climate change Greenhouse effect Meteorology Simulation Surface temperature Temperature Trends |
| Subtitle | Mechanisms and Implications |
| Title | Forced and Internal Components of Winter Air Temperature Trends over North America during the past 50 Years |
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