Motor Vehicles Forecasting in Kolhapur City Using Combined Grey Model

Kolhapur city has witnessed consistent growth in motor vehicles (MV), and an accurate forecast is essential. To this end, a combined grey model was developed by combining the grey model (GM(1,1)) and the simple linear regression (SLR) model. The new model, named the grey simple linear regression mod...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering Vol. 27; no. 6; pp. 2385 - 2391
Main Authors: Shinde, Sagar Maruti, Karjinni, Vilas Vijay
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: Seoul Korean Society of Civil Engineers 01.06.2023
Springer Nature B.V
대한토목학회
Subjects:
Accuracy
Civil Engineering
Engineering
Engines
Environmental Engineering
Forecasting
Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences
Industrial Pollution Prevention
Motor vehicles
Regression analysis
Regression models
Vehicles
토목공학
Combined model
Simple linear regression model
Forecast accuracy
Motor vehicles
Grey model
ISSN:1226-7988, 1976-3808
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:Kolhapur city has witnessed consistent growth in motor vehicles (MV), and an accurate forecast is essential. To this end, a combined grey model was developed by combining the grey model (GM(1,1)) and the simple linear regression (SLR) model. The new model, named the grey simple linear regression model (abbreviated as GSLRM), is newly utilised for MV prediction. A total of five years (2008–2012) of MV data were employed. The accuracy of the proposed GSLRM was compared with the GM(1,1) and SLR models in terms of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The results revealed that all models meet high accuracy (MAPE < 10%). However, the GSLRM was slightly more accurate (MAPE = 3.85%) than the competing models. Moreover, with a reasonable development coefficient value ( a ≤ 0.3), the GSLRM could be used for mid-long-term forecasts. Subsequently, the GSLRM was used to forecast MV for the next seven years (2013–2019). The forecast results showed that the total MV would increase continuously. In summary, the GSLRM proved its reliability and validity in forecasting the total MV in Kolhapur city, and it can assist the government in drafting relevant policies. Moreover, this study also attempted to investigate the relationship between the population and RMV growth and found that population could be one of the responsible factors.
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ISSN:1226-7988
1976-3808
DOI:10.1007/s12205-023-1879-x