What Would It Take to Change an Inference? Using Rubin's Causal Model to Interpret the Robustness of Causal Inferences

We contribute to debate about causal inferences in educational research in two ways. First, we quantify how much bias there must be in an estimate to invalidate an inference. Second, we utilize Rubins causal model to interpret the bias necessary to invalidate an inference in terms of sample replacem...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Educational evaluation and policy analysis Vol. 35; no. 4; pp. 437 - 460
Main Authors: Frank, Kenneth A., Maroulis, Spiro J., Duong, Minh Q., Kelcey, Benjamin M.
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: Los Angeles, CA SAGE Publications 01.12.2013
American Educational Research Association
Subjects:
Academic achievement
Academic Persistence
Bias
Causal Models
Causality
Comparative Analysis
Contrafactuals
Courts
Curricula
Discourse analysis
Educational evaluation
Educational Research
Equations (Mathematics)
Estimation bias
Inference
Inferences
Judgment
Kindergarten
Kindergarten education
Observational studies
Policy analysis
Reading Achievement
Reading Programs
Research Methodology
Robustness
Robustness (Statistics)
Sampling bias
Statistical Analysis
Test Bias
Rubin’s causal model
causal inference
observational studies
sensitivity analysis
ISSN:0162-3737, 1935-1062
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:We contribute to debate about causal inferences in educational research in two ways. First, we quantify how much bias there must be in an estimate to invalidate an inference. Second, we utilize Rubins causal model to interpret the bias necessary to invalidate an inference in terms of sample replacement. We apply our analysis to an inference of a positive effect of Open Court Curriculum on reading achievement from a randomized experiment, and an inference of a negative effect of kindergarten retention on reading achievement from an observational study. We consider details of our framework, and then discuss how our approach informs judgment of inference relative to study design. We conclude with implications for scientific discourse.
Bibliography:SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
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ISSN:0162-3737
1935-1062
DOI:10.3102/0162373713493129