Understanding incremental densification – Determinants of residential infill on vacant lots
•Approach allows to link landowners’ and developers’ interests to infill processes.•Spatial and regulatory prerequisites determine multi-family housing infill.•Multi-family housing infill is further depending on market rationalities.•Low-density housing infill is driven by individual landowners’ int...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Landscape and urban planning Jg. 260; S. 105375 |
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| Format: | Journal Article |
| Sprache: | Englisch |
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01.08.2025
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| ISSN: | 0169-2046 |
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| Abstract | •Approach allows to link landowners’ and developers’ interests to infill processes.•Spatial and regulatory prerequisites determine multi-family housing infill.•Multi-family housing infill is further depending on market rationalities.•Low-density housing infill is driven by individual landowners’ interests.•Most vacant lots remain undeveloped, despite the existence of building rights.
Urban densification faces challenges due to the declining availability of land in urban areas worldwide and the need to balance various demands regarding the use of the remaining land, which can provide high ecological and social value. At the same time, in many residential areas, small-scale vacant lots with existing building rights can be found. The decision as to whether or not densification on these lots takes place depends on individual landowners’ decisions and takes place largely without the purview of strategic planning. Although small-scale densification potentials and processes can add up to substantial amounts, they remain poorly studied. With this study, we aim to contribute to a better understanding of which determinants drive or limit small-scale incremental densification processes on vacant lots. We employ logistic regression analysis using detailed infill data from 2011 to 2021 for the three main processes found: Vacant lots staying vacant, infill with low-density housing, and infill with multi-family housing. Applied to a German study area, we obtain good model results for infill with multi-family housing (AUC: 0.82) which showed to be highly dependent on parcel characteristics, limited by planning regulations, and driven by market interests. In contrast, the model results for low-density housing infill were rather poor, indicating the importance of individual landowner interests as well as the minor impact of market rationalities, spatial preconditions, and planning regulations. However, the predominant process observed in the study area was that vacant lots remained undeveloped, highlighting the enduring presence of urban vacant land despite the existence of building rights. The study contributes to understanding the complex dynamics of decentralised densification processes and highlights the need for nuanced approaches to incremental densification, considering landowner interests and regulatory frameworks. |
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| AbstractList | •Approach allows to link landowners’ and developers’ interests to infill processes.•Spatial and regulatory prerequisites determine multi-family housing infill.•Multi-family housing infill is further depending on market rationalities.•Low-density housing infill is driven by individual landowners’ interests.•Most vacant lots remain undeveloped, despite the existence of building rights.
Urban densification faces challenges due to the declining availability of land in urban areas worldwide and the need to balance various demands regarding the use of the remaining land, which can provide high ecological and social value. At the same time, in many residential areas, small-scale vacant lots with existing building rights can be found. The decision as to whether or not densification on these lots takes place depends on individual landowners’ decisions and takes place largely without the purview of strategic planning. Although small-scale densification potentials and processes can add up to substantial amounts, they remain poorly studied. With this study, we aim to contribute to a better understanding of which determinants drive or limit small-scale incremental densification processes on vacant lots. We employ logistic regression analysis using detailed infill data from 2011 to 2021 for the three main processes found: Vacant lots staying vacant, infill with low-density housing, and infill with multi-family housing. Applied to a German study area, we obtain good model results for infill with multi-family housing (AUC: 0.82) which showed to be highly dependent on parcel characteristics, limited by planning regulations, and driven by market interests. In contrast, the model results for low-density housing infill were rather poor, indicating the importance of individual landowner interests as well as the minor impact of market rationalities, spatial preconditions, and planning regulations. However, the predominant process observed in the study area was that vacant lots remained undeveloped, highlighting the enduring presence of urban vacant land despite the existence of building rights. The study contributes to understanding the complex dynamics of decentralised densification processes and highlights the need for nuanced approaches to incremental densification, considering landowner interests and regulatory frameworks. Urban densification faces challenges due to the declining availability of land in urban areas worldwide and the need to balance various demands regarding the use of the remaining land, which can provide high ecological and social value. At the same time, in many residential areas, small-scale vacant lots with existing building rights can be found. The decision as to whether or not densification on these lots takes place depends on individual landowners’ decisions and takes place largely without the purview of strategic planning. Although small-scale densification potentials and processes can add up to substantial amounts, they remain poorly studied. With this study, we aim to contribute to a better understanding of which determinants drive or limit small-scale incremental densification processes on vacant lots. We employ logistic regression analysis using detailed infill data from 2011 to 2021 for the three main processes found: Vacant lots staying vacant, infill with low-density housing, and infill with multi-family housing. Applied to a German study area, we obtain good model results for infill with multi-family housing (AUC: 0.82) which showed to be highly dependent on parcel characteristics, limited by planning regulations, and driven by market interests. In contrast, the model results for low-density housing infill were rather poor, indicating the importance of individual landowner interests as well as the minor impact of market rationalities, spatial preconditions, and planning regulations. However, the predominant process observed in the study area was that vacant lots remained undeveloped, highlighting the enduring presence of urban vacant land despite the existence of building rights. The study contributes to understanding the complex dynamics of decentralised densification processes and highlights the need for nuanced approaches to incremental densification, considering landowner interests and regulatory frameworks. |
| ArticleNumber | 105375 |
| Author | Behnisch, Martin Jehling, Mathias Ehrhardt, Denise Michaeli, Mark |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Denise orcidid: 0000-0001-7949-4557 surname: Ehrhardt fullname: Ehrhardt, Denise email: d.ehrhardt@ioer.de organization: Leibniz Institute of Ecological Urban and Regional Development, Weberplatz 1, 01217 Dresden, Germany and Technical University of Munich, School of Engineering and Design, Department of Architecture – sequence: 2 givenname: Martin orcidid: 0000-0003-4590-6757 surname: Behnisch fullname: Behnisch, Martin email: m.behnisch@ioer.de organization: Leibniz Institute of Ecological Urban and Regional Development, Germany – sequence: 3 givenname: Mark orcidid: 0000-0003-0107-7088 surname: Michaeli fullname: Michaeli, Mark email: michaeli@tum.de organization: Technical University of Munich, School of Engineering and Design, Department of Architecture, Germany – sequence: 4 givenname: Mathias surname: Jehling fullname: Jehling, Mathias email: m.jehling@ioer.de organization: Leibniz Institute of Ecological Urban and Regional Development, Germany |
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| Cites_doi | 10.1111/1467-940X.00039 10.1016/j.landusepol.2023.106813 10.1007/978-94-015-7799-1 10.5334/bc.125 10.5334/bc.69 10.3828/tpr.2020.12 10.1016/j.cities.2013.04.007 10.1016/j.cities.2017.10.005 10.5334/bc.295 10.1177/0042098012465908 10.1007/s13147-017-0511-2 10.1068/b307 10.1016/j.landusepol.2024.107198 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2020.103857 10.1177/0042098019864019 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2013.05.003 10.1080/02673037.2011.581909 10.1080/12265934.2013.818388 10.1080/02723638.2019.1663058 10.3828/tpr.73.4.2 10.5334/bc.123 10.3218/3700-5 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2021.104350 10.1177/0049124116638107 10.3828/tpr.2020.17 10.1080/09654313.2022.2148456 10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2006.11.001 10.1177/0042098017749176 10.1016/j.cities.2021.103221 10.3828/tpr.2020.13 10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.110142 10.14512/rur.1655 10.1177/0042098020936967 10.1371/journal.pone.0240738 10.1186/s12859-018-2264-5 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2016.08.013 10.1016/j.landusepol.2022.106405 10.1007/s11146-008-9123-5 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2023.104895 10.1016/j.landusepol.2021.105653 10.1080/09654313.2012.716245 10.1016/j.landusepol.2014.10.004 10.1080/23729333.2015.1055644 10.1080/02673037.2021.1950647 10.3828/tpr.2015.18 |
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| Keywords | Logistic regression Infill development Incremental densification Vacant lots |
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