How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence

We survey New Zealand firms and document novel facts about their macroeconomic beliefs. There is widespread dispersion in beliefs about past and future macroeconomic conditions, especially inflation. This dispersion in beliefs is consistent with firms’ incentives to collect and process information....

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Vydané v:The American economic review Ročník 108; číslo 9; s. 2671 - 2713
Hlavní autori: Coibion, Olivier, Gorodnichenko, Yuriy, Kumar, Saten
Médium: Journal Article
Jazyk:English
Vydavateľské údaje: Nashville American Economic Association 01.09.2018
Predmet:
Bayesian analysis
Beliefs
Companies
Decision making
Economic conditions
Incentives
Inflation
Information
Macroeconomics
Polls & surveys
New Zealand
ISSN:0002-8282, 1944-7981
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Shrnutí:We survey New Zealand firms and document novel facts about their macroeconomic beliefs. There is widespread dispersion in beliefs about past and future macroeconomic conditions, especially inflation. This dispersion in beliefs is consistent with firms’ incentives to collect and process information. Using experimental methods, we find that firms update their beliefs in a Bayesian manner when presented with new information about the economy and that changes in their beliefs affect their decisions. Inflation is not generally perceived as being important to business decisions so firms devote few resources to collecting and processing information about inflation.
Bibliografia:ObjectType-Article-1
SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
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content type line 14
ISSN:0002-8282
1944-7981
DOI:10.1257/aer.20151299