A Causal Inference Framework for Climate Change Attribution in Ecology

ABSTRACT As climate change increasingly affects biodiversity and ecosystem services, a key challenge in ecology is accurate attribution of these impacts. Though experimental studies have greatly advanced our understanding of climate change effects, experimental results are difficult to generalise to...

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Vydáno v:Ecology letters Ročník 28; číslo 8; s. e70192 - n/a
Hlavní autoři: Dudney, Joan, Dee, Laura E., Heilmayr, Robert, Byrnes, Jarrett, Siegel, Katherine
Médium: Journal Article
Jazyk:angličtina
Vydáno: England Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01.08.2025
Témata:
adaptation and acclimation
Biodiversity
Climate Change
climate change detection
confounding variables
counterfactual analysis
directed acyclic graph (DAG)
Ecological effects
ecological forecasting
Ecology
Ecology - methods
Ecosystem
Ecosystem services
extreme events
Inference
Models, Biological
omitted variable bias
panel regression
Pinus - physiology
quasi‐experimental design
Research design
adaptation and acclimation
quasi‐experimental design
omitted variable bias
directed acyclic graph (DAG)
confounding variables
extreme events
ecological forecasting
climate change detection
counterfactual analysis
panel regression
ISSN:1461-023X, 1461-0248, 1461-0248
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Abstract ABSTRACT As climate change increasingly affects biodiversity and ecosystem services, a key challenge in ecology is accurate attribution of these impacts. Though experimental studies have greatly advanced our understanding of climate change effects, experimental results are difficult to generalise to real‐world scenarios. To better capture realised impacts, ecologists can use observational data. Disentangling cause and effect using observational data, however, requires careful research design. Here we describe advances in causal inference that can improve climate change attribution in observational settings. Our framework includes five steps: (1) describe the theoretical foundation, (2) choose appropriate observational datasets, (3) estimate the causal relationships of interest, (4) simulate a counterfactual scenario and (5) evaluate results and assumptions using robustness checks. We demonstrate this framework using a pinyon pine case study in North America, and we conclude with a discussion of frontiers in climate change attribution. Our aim is to provide an accessible foundation for applying observational causal inference to estimate climate change effects on ecological systems. Accurately attributing ecological shifts to climate change remains a significant challenge. Here, we present an accessible causal inference framework designed for climate change attribution in observational settings. Using a case study and a discussion of key frontiers, we provide ecologists with robust tools to better quantify and manage ecosystem responses in a rapidly warming world.
AbstractList ABSTRACT As climate change increasingly affects biodiversity and ecosystem services, a key challenge in ecology is accurate attribution of these impacts. Though experimental studies have greatly advanced our understanding of climate change effects, experimental results are difficult to generalise to real‐world scenarios. To better capture realised impacts, ecologists can use observational data. Disentangling cause and effect using observational data, however, requires careful research design. Here we describe advances in causal inference that can improve climate change attribution in observational settings. Our framework includes five steps: (1) describe the theoretical foundation, (2) choose appropriate observational datasets, (3) estimate the causal relationships of interest, (4) simulate a counterfactual scenario and (5) evaluate results and assumptions using robustness checks. We demonstrate this framework using a pinyon pine case study in North America, and we conclude with a discussion of frontiers in climate change attribution. Our aim is to provide an accessible foundation for applying observational causal inference to estimate climate change effects on ecological systems. Accurately attributing ecological shifts to climate change remains a significant challenge. Here, we present an accessible causal inference framework designed for climate change attribution in observational settings. Using a case study and a discussion of key frontiers, we provide ecologists with robust tools to better quantify and manage ecosystem responses in a rapidly warming world.
As climate change increasingly affects biodiversity and ecosystem services, a key challenge in ecology is accurate attribution of these impacts. Though experimental studies have greatly advanced our understanding of climate change effects, experimental results are difficult to generalise to real-world scenarios. To better capture realised impacts, ecologists can use observational data. Disentangling cause and effect using observational data, however, requires careful research design. Here we describe advances in causal inference that can improve climate change attribution in observational settings. Our framework includes five steps: (1) describe the theoretical foundation, (2) choose appropriate observational datasets, (3) estimate the causal relationships of interest, (4) simulate a counterfactual scenario and (5) evaluate results and assumptions using robustness checks. We demonstrate this framework using a pinyon pine case study in North America, and we conclude with a discussion of frontiers in climate change attribution. Our aim is to provide an accessible foundation for applying observational causal inference to estimate climate change effects on ecological systems.
As climate change increasingly affects biodiversity and ecosystem services, a key challenge in ecology is accurate attribution of these impacts. Though experimental studies have greatly advanced our understanding of climate change effects, experimental results are difficult to generalise to real-world scenarios. To better capture realised impacts, ecologists can use observational data. Disentangling cause and effect using observational data, however, requires careful research design. Here we describe advances in causal inference that can improve climate change attribution in observational settings. Our framework includes five steps: (1) describe the theoretical foundation, (2) choose appropriate observational datasets, (3) estimate the causal relationships of interest, (4) simulate a counterfactual scenario and (5) evaluate results and assumptions using robustness checks. We demonstrate this framework using a pinyon pine case study in North America, and we conclude with a discussion of frontiers in climate change attribution. Our aim is to provide an accessible foundation for applying observational causal inference to estimate climate change effects on ecological systems.As climate change increasingly affects biodiversity and ecosystem services, a key challenge in ecology is accurate attribution of these impacts. Though experimental studies have greatly advanced our understanding of climate change effects, experimental results are difficult to generalise to real-world scenarios. To better capture realised impacts, ecologists can use observational data. Disentangling cause and effect using observational data, however, requires careful research design. Here we describe advances in causal inference that can improve climate change attribution in observational settings. Our framework includes five steps: (1) describe the theoretical foundation, (2) choose appropriate observational datasets, (3) estimate the causal relationships of interest, (4) simulate a counterfactual scenario and (5) evaluate results and assumptions using robustness checks. We demonstrate this framework using a pinyon pine case study in North America, and we conclude with a discussion of frontiers in climate change attribution. Our aim is to provide an accessible foundation for applying observational causal inference to estimate climate change effects on ecological systems.
Author Heilmayr, Robert
Dee, Laura E.
Byrnes, Jarrett
Dudney, Joan
Siegel, Katherine
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  surname: Dudney
  fullname: Dudney, Joan
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  organization: UC Santa Barbara
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  givenname: Laura E.
  orcidid: 0000-0003-0471-1371
  surname: Dee
  fullname: Dee, Laura E.
  organization: University of Colorado Boulder
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  givenname: Robert
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  fullname: Heilmayr, Robert
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  givenname: Jarrett
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  surname: Byrnes
  fullname: Byrnes, Jarrett
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  givenname: Katherine
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  surname: Siegel
  fullname: Siegel, Katherine
  organization: University of Colorado‐Boulder
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Issue 8
Keywords adaptation and acclimation
quasi‐experimental design
omitted variable bias
directed acyclic graph (DAG)
confounding variables
extreme events
ecological forecasting
climate change detection
counterfactual analysis
panel regression
Language English
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Notes Funding
This work was supported by Greater Atlantic Regional Fisheries Office. Directorate for Biological Sciences, 2340606.
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Mendelsohn R. (e_1_2_11_83_1) 1994; 84
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Wooldridge J. M. (e_1_2_11_134_1) 2010
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Snippet ABSTRACT As climate change increasingly affects biodiversity and ecosystem services, a key challenge in ecology is accurate attribution of these impacts....
As climate change increasingly affects biodiversity and ecosystem services, a key challenge in ecology is accurate attribution of these impacts. Though...
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StartPage e70192
SubjectTerms adaptation and acclimation
Biodiversity
Climate Change
climate change detection
confounding variables
counterfactual analysis
directed acyclic graph (DAG)
Ecological effects
ecological forecasting
Ecology
Ecology - methods
Ecosystem
Ecosystem services
extreme events
Inference
Models, Biological
omitted variable bias
panel regression
Pinus - physiology
quasi‐experimental design
Research design
Title A Causal Inference Framework for Climate Change Attribution in Ecology
URI https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111%2Fele.70192
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/40808550
https://www.proquest.com/docview/3244167868
https://www.proquest.com/docview/3239403500
Volume 28
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