A Multiobjective Stochastic Programming Model for Hydropower Hedging Operations under Inexact Information

This study develops a multiobjective stochastic programming model for informing hedging decisions for hydropower operations under an electricity market environment considering the benefit from selling energy production and the cost of penalizing energy shortfall. Aiming to determine the optimal stra...

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Published in:	Water resources management Vol. 31; no. 14; pp. 4649 - 4667
Main Authors:	Xu, Bin, Zhong, Ping-an, Wu, Yenan, Fu, Fangming, Chen, Yuting, Zhao, Yunfa
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	Dordrecht Springer Netherlands 01.11.2017 Springer Nature B.V
Subjects:	Atmospheric Sciences Canyons Civil Engineering Decisions Drawdown Earth and Environmental Science Earth Sciences electricity Energy Energy storage Environment Frameworks Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences Hedging Hydroelectric power Hydrogeology Hydrology/Water Resources income markets Maximization Multiple objective analysis Optimization prices Reservoir storage Revenue risk Stochastic models Stochastic programming Stream discharge Stream flow Studies water power China Hydropower operation Shadow price Inexact information Hedging policy Stochastic programming
ISSN:	0920-4741, 1573-1650
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Abstract	This study develops a multiobjective stochastic programming model for informing hedging decisions for hydropower operations under an electricity market environment considering the benefit from selling energy production and the cost of penalizing energy shortfall. Aiming to determine the optimal strategy that hedges the risk of energy shortfall while keeping a high level of direct revenue from energy production under uncertain streamflows and inexact penalizing price conditions, competing objectives of minimizing energy shortfall percentage and maximizing direct revenue from energy production are analyzed. The conflict is resolved by determining the optimal level of energy shortfall percentage such that the net benefit of the hydropower system is maximized. The first-order optimality condition of maximized system net revenue is derived, which states that the marginal benefit of hedging equals the marginal cost of hedging at optimality. The tradeoff ratio between the competing objectives serves as the marginal cost of hedging and the penalizing price of energy shortfall represents the marginal benefit of hedging. Using the optimality condition, sensitivity tests are conducted for investigating the influence of different ranges of penalizing prices and reservoir initial storages on hedging decisions. The proposed method is evaluated on the operations of the Three Gorges cascade hydropower system during the drawdown season. Results show that: (1) minimizing the energy shortfall percentage adversely affects the maximization in system direct revenue from energy production, and the conflicting results are related to the depletion strategies of reservoir storage; (2) to reduce the energy shortfall percentage to the lowest level could result in significant reduction in total energy production and the direct revenue, especially when reservoir initial storages are low; and (3) the optimal level of energy shortfall percentage would decrease as penalizing price increases, when the influence of penalizing cost from energy shortfall gradually dominates the influence of energy production on the net revenue. The model framework and the implications could be applied to rationalize hedging decisions for hydropower operations under inexact information upon streamflow and penalizing prices.
AbstractList	This study develops a multiobjective stochastic programming model for informing hedging decisions for hydropower operations under an electricity market environment considering the benefit from selling energy production and the cost of penalizing energy shortfall. Aiming to determine the optimal strategy that hedges the risk of energy shortfall while keeping a high level of direct revenue from energy production under uncertain streamflows and inexact penalizing price conditions, competing objectives of minimizing energy shortfall percentage and maximizing direct revenue from energy production are analyzed. The conflict is resolved by determining the optimal level of energy shortfall percentage such that the net benefit of the hydropower system is maximized. The first-order optimality condition of maximized system net revenue is derived, which states that the marginal benefit of hedging equals the marginal cost of hedging at optimality. The tradeoff ratio between the competing objectives serves as the marginal cost of hedging and the penalizing price of energy shortfall represents the marginal benefit of hedging. Using the optimality condition, sensitivity tests are conducted for investigating the influence of different ranges of penalizing prices and reservoir initial storages on hedging decisions. The proposed method is evaluated on the operations of the Three Gorges cascade hydropower system during the drawdown season. Results show that: (1) minimizing the energy shortfall percentage adversely affects the maximization in system direct revenue from energy production, and the conflicting results are related to the depletion strategies of reservoir storage; (2) to reduce the energy shortfall percentage to the lowest level could result in significant reduction in total energy production and the direct revenue, especially when reservoir initial storages are low; and (3) the optimal level of energy shortfall percentage would decrease as penalizing price increases, when the influence of penalizing cost from energy shortfall gradually dominates the influence of energy production on the net revenue. The model framework and the implications could be applied to rationalize hedging decisions for hydropower operations under inexact information upon streamflow and penalizing prices.
Author	Xu, Bin Zhao, Yunfa Wu, Yenan Zhong, Ping-an Fu, Fangming Chen, Yuting
Author_xml	– sequence: 1 givenname: Bin surname: Xu fullname: Xu, Bin email: xubin_hhu@hhu.edu.cn organization: College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute – sequence: 2 givenname: Ping-an surname: Zhong fullname: Zhong, Ping-an organization: College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, National Engineering Research Center of Water Resources Efficient Utilization and Engineering Safety, Hohai University – sequence: 3 givenname: Yenan surname: Wu fullname: Wu, Yenan organization: College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University – sequence: 4 givenname: Fangming surname: Fu fullname: Fu, Fangming organization: College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University – sequence: 5 givenname: Yuting surname: Chen fullname: Chen, Yuting organization: College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University – sequence: 6 givenname: Yunfa surname: Zhao fullname: Zhao, Yunfa organization: China Yangtze power Co., Ltd
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CitedBy_id	crossref_primary_10_1007_s10666_018_9628_0 crossref_primary_10_1007_s11356_022_22943_8 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_engappai_2019_01_013 crossref_primary_10_1007_s00477_023_02588_w crossref_primary_10_1016_j_scs_2020_102562 crossref_primary_10_1109_ACCESS_2019_2892651 crossref_primary_10_1061__ASCE_WR_1943_5452_0001046 crossref_primary_10_1155_2019_1534598 crossref_primary_10_3390_w10040383 crossref_primary_10_1088_1755_1315_1108_1_012074 crossref_primary_10_2166_hydro_2018_116 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_jhydrol_2020_125477 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_jhydrol_2021_127227 crossref_primary_10_1007_s11269_018_2075_5
Cites_doi	10.1016/j.rser.2007.01.011 10.1002/2014WR016828 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000432 10.1002/2014WR015964 10.1016/j.epsr.2012.06.016 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.05.021 10.1016/j.ejor.2011.03.033 10.1023/A:1019206915174 10.3390/w8120576 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2004)130:1(83) 10.1007/s11269-008-9365-2 10.1007/s11269-011-9799-9 10.1007/s11269-008-9394-x 10.1016/j.enpol.2007.12.005 10.5194/hess-19-1457-2015 10.1016/j.enconman.2015.09.032 10.1016/j.advwatres.2012.01.005 10.1002/2015WR017250 10.1016/j.enpo1.2007.12.005 10.1016/j.rser.2007.01.018 10.1002/fut.3990140208 10.1029/2006WR005481 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001329 10.1007/s11269-016-1472-x 10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.11.006 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000427
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Keywords	Hydropower operation Shadow price Inexact information Hedging policy Stochastic programming
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SubjectTerms	Atmospheric Sciences Canyons Civil Engineering Decisions Drawdown Earth and Environmental Science Earth Sciences electricity Energy Energy storage Environment Frameworks Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences Hedging Hydroelectric power Hydrogeology Hydrology/Water Resources income markets Maximization Multiple objective analysis Optimization prices Reservoir storage Revenue risk Stochastic models Stochastic programming Stream discharge Stream flow Studies water power
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Title	A Multiobjective Stochastic Programming Model for Hydropower Hedging Operations under Inexact Information
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