A landscape model of variable social-ecological fire regimes

•Our new fire model emphasizes climate change and human actions, including variable ignitions sources, fire suppression, and prescribed fires.•Our design utilizes remotely sensed data, capturing landscape-scale determinants of fire behavior across large areas and long durations.•Our design also impr...

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Vydáno v:Ecological modelling Ročník 401; s. 85 - 93
Hlavní autoři: Scheller, Robert, Kretchun, Alec, Hawbaker, Todd J., Henne, Paul D.
Médium: Journal Article
Jazyk:angličtina
Vydáno: Elsevier B.V 01.06.2019
Témata:
basins
California
climate change
fire behavior
Fire regime
Fire suppression
fire weather
fuels
Ignition
invasive species
lakes
LANDIS-II
landscapes
lightning
Mortality
Nevada
prescribed burning
Spread
tree mortality
vegetation
wildfires
California
Nevada
Fire regime
LANDIS-II
Spread
Mortality
Ignition
Fire suppression
ISSN:0304-3800, 1872-7026
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Popis
Shrnutí:•Our new fire model emphasizes climate change and human actions, including variable ignitions sources, fire suppression, and prescribed fires.•Our design utilizes remotely sensed data, capturing landscape-scale determinants of fire behavior across large areas and long durations.•Our design also improved the capacity to utilize expert opinion, allowing for rapid development of simulation scenarios.•The model was parameterized for the Lake Tahoe Basin in California and Nevada, USA although its behavior is general.•We simulated four scenarios that emphasize the social dimensions of fire regimes. Fire regimes are now recognized as the product of social processes whereby fire on any landscape is the product of human-generated drivers: climate change, historical patterns of vegetation manipulation, invasive species, active fire suppression, ongoing fuel management efforts, prescribed burning, and accidental ignitions. We developed a new fire model (Social-Climate Related Pyrogenic Processes and their Landscape Effects: SCRPPLE) that emphasizes the social dimensions of fire and enables simulation of fuel-treatment effects, fire suppression, and prescribed fires. Fire behavior was parameterized with daily fire weather, ignition, and fire-boundary data. SCRPPLE was initially parameterized and developed for the Lake Tahoe Basin (LTB) in California and Nevada, USA although its behavior is general and could be applied worldwide. We demonstrate the behavior and utility of our model via four simple scenarios that emphasize the social dimensions of fire regimes: a) Recent Historical: simulated recent historical patterns of lightning and accidental fires and current patterns of fire suppression, b) Natural-Fire-Regime: simulated wildfire without suppression, accidental fires, or prescribed fires, holding all other factors the same as Recent Historical, c) Enhanced Suppression: simulated a doubling of the effectiveness of suppression, holding all other factors the same as Recent Historical, and d) Reduced Accidental Ignitions: within which the number of accidental fires was reduced by half, holding all other factors the same as Recent Historical. Results indicate that SCRPPLE can recreate past fire regimes, including size, intensity, and locations. Furthermore, our results indicate that the ‘Enhanced Suppression’ and ‘Reduced Accidental Ignitions’ scenarios had similar capacity to reduce fire and related tree mortality over time, suggesting that within the broad outlines of the scenarios, reducing accidental fires can be as effective as substantially increasing resources for suppression.
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ISSN:0304-3800
1872-7026
DOI:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2019.03.022