Parameter estimation for Gipps’ car following model in a Bayesian framework

Car following model is an important part in traffic modelling and has attracted a lot of attentions in the literature. As the proposed car following models become more complex with more components, reliably estimating their parameters becomes crucial to enhance model predictive performance. While mo...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Physica A Vol. 639; p. 129671
Main Authors: Ting, Samson, Lymburn, Thomas, Stemler, Thomas, Sun, Yuchao, Small, Michael
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier B.V 01.04.2024
Subjects:
Adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo
Bayesian inference
Model calibration and validation
Uncertainty quantification
Adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo
Uncertainty quantification
Bayesian inference
Model calibration and validation
ISSN:0378-4371, 1873-2119
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:Car following model is an important part in traffic modelling and has attracted a lot of attentions in the literature. As the proposed car following models become more complex with more components, reliably estimating their parameters becomes crucial to enhance model predictive performance. While most studies adopt an optimisation-based approach for parameters estimation, we present a statistically rigorous method that quantifies uncertainty of the estimates. We present a Bayesian approach to estimate parameters using the popular Gipps’ car following model as demonstration, which allows proper uncertainty quantification and propagation. Since the parameters of the car following model enter the statistical model through the solution of a delay-differential equation, the posterior is analytically intractable so we implemented an adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to sample from it. Our results show that predictive uncertainty using a point estimator versus a full Bayesian approach are similar with sufficient data. In the absence of adequate data, the former can make over-confident predictions while such uncertainty is more appropriately incorporated in a Bayesian framework. Furthermore, we found that the congested flow parameters in the Gipps’ car following model are strongly correlated in the posterior, which not only causes issues for sampling efficiency but more so suggests the potential ineffectiveness of a point estimator in an optimisation-based approach. Lastly, an application of the Bayesian approach to a car following episode in the NGISM dataset is presented. •Inference for Gipps’ car following model is performed using Bayesian methods.•An adaptive Metropolis-within-Gibbs sampler is implemented.•Strong correlation between congested flow behavioural parameters was found.•Parameter uncertainty in Bayesian approach is beneficial if data is not abundant.
ISSN:0378-4371
1873-2119
DOI:10.1016/j.physa.2024.129671