Optimizing the design of stand-alone hybrid renewable energy systems with storage using genetic algorithms: Analysis of the impact of temporal complementarity of wind and solar sources
•The impact of solar-wind complementarity on NPC becomes more significant as the allowable LPSP decreases.•A strong relationship between temporal complementarity, demand profile, and system reliability (LPSP) is identified.•Off-grid HRES emerges as an effective alternative for decentralized energy g...
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| Published in: | Energy conversion and management Vol. 341; p. 120016 |
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| Main Authors: | , , , |
| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | English |
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01.10.2025
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| ISSN: | 0196-8904 |
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| Abstract | •The impact of solar-wind complementarity on NPC becomes more significant as the allowable LPSP decreases.•A strong relationship between temporal complementarity, demand profile, and system reliability (LPSP) is identified.•Off-grid HRES emerges as an effective alternative for decentralized energy generation.
This study analyzes the impact of temporal complementarity between wind and solar sources on the optimal design of stand-alone hybrid renewable energy systems with storage (HRES). A model was developed in GNU Octave that uses a fixed-seed genetic algorithm to ensure reproducibility and compare scenarios. The objective is to minimize the Net Present Cost (NPC) while complying with a reliability constraint defined by the LPSP (Loss of Power Supply Probability). Constant and variable load profiles are evaluated under different levels of complementarity, showing that their influence depends on the type of demand. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis is performed on the LPSP, battery cost, and discount rate, demonstrating how these parameters affect the optimal configuration. The results indicate that high complementarity can significantly reduce the NPC, especially in contexts with strict reliability requirements. In environmental terms, an HRES supplying 1470 kWh per day would avoid between 108 and 375 tons of CO2 per year, compared to a fossil source. These findings are key to energy planning in countries moving toward decarbonization, supporting investment decisions in distributed generation and mitigating the effects of curtailment on centralized systems. |
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| AbstractList | •The impact of solar-wind complementarity on NPC becomes more significant as the allowable LPSP decreases.•A strong relationship between temporal complementarity, demand profile, and system reliability (LPSP) is identified.•Off-grid HRES emerges as an effective alternative for decentralized energy generation.
This study analyzes the impact of temporal complementarity between wind and solar sources on the optimal design of stand-alone hybrid renewable energy systems with storage (HRES). A model was developed in GNU Octave that uses a fixed-seed genetic algorithm to ensure reproducibility and compare scenarios. The objective is to minimize the Net Present Cost (NPC) while complying with a reliability constraint defined by the LPSP (Loss of Power Supply Probability). Constant and variable load profiles are evaluated under different levels of complementarity, showing that their influence depends on the type of demand. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis is performed on the LPSP, battery cost, and discount rate, demonstrating how these parameters affect the optimal configuration. The results indicate that high complementarity can significantly reduce the NPC, especially in contexts with strict reliability requirements. In environmental terms, an HRES supplying 1470 kWh per day would avoid between 108 and 375 tons of CO2 per year, compared to a fossil source. These findings are key to energy planning in countries moving toward decarbonization, supporting investment decisions in distributed generation and mitigating the effects of curtailment on centralized systems. This study analyzes the impact of temporal complementarity between wind and solar sources on the optimal design of stand-alone hybrid renewable energy systems with storage (HRES). A model was developed in GNU Octave that uses a fixed-seed genetic algorithm to ensure reproducibility and compare scenarios. The objective is to minimize the Net Present Cost (NPC) while complying with a reliability constraint defined by the LPSP (Loss of Power Supply Probability). Constant and variable load profiles are evaluated under different levels of complementarity, showing that their influence depends on the type of demand. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis is performed on the LPSP, battery cost, and discount rate, demonstrating how these parameters affect the optimal configuration. The results indicate that high complementarity can significantly reduce the NPC, especially in contexts with strict reliability requirements. In environmental terms, an HRES supplying 1470 kWh per day would avoid between 108 and 375 tons of CO₂ per year, compared to a fossil source. These findings are key to energy planning in countries moving toward decarbonization, supporting investment decisions in distributed generation and mitigating the effects of curtailment on centralized systems. |
| ArticleNumber | 120016 |
| Author | Lüer-Villagra, Armin Sanhueza, Felipe Salazar, Lautaro Munoz-Pincheira, Jose Luis |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Jose Luis orcidid: 0009-0009-7200-3546 surname: Munoz-Pincheira fullname: Munoz-Pincheira, Jose Luis email: jose.munoz@unab.cl organization: Programa Doctorado en Energía, Universidad de Concepción, Víctor Lamas 1290, Concepción, Chile – sequence: 2 givenname: Lautaro surname: Salazar fullname: Salazar, Lautaro organization: Departamento Ingeniería Eléctrica, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile – sequence: 3 givenname: Felipe surname: Sanhueza fullname: Sanhueza, Felipe organization: Departamento Ingeniería de Materiales, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile – sequence: 4 givenname: Armin orcidid: 0000-0002-8191-4407 surname: Lüer-Villagra fullname: Lüer-Villagra, Armin organization: Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad Andres Bello, Autopista Concepción-Talcahuano 7100, Talcahuano, Chile |
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| SubjectTerms | administrative management algorithms batteries carbon dioxide discount rate Distributed Generation energy conversion fossils Genetic Algorithms HRES Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) probability renewable energy sources Temporal Complementarity wind |
| Title | Optimizing the design of stand-alone hybrid renewable energy systems with storage using genetic algorithms: Analysis of the impact of temporal complementarity of wind and solar sources |
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