HOW UNCERTAINTY STIMULATES OVER-HARVESTING IN A RESOURCE DILEMMA: THREE PROCESS EXPLANATIONS

We report on a series of computer simulation experiments regarding the management of a common resource. We were particularly interested in the effects of uncertainty and satisfaction on the harvesting behaviour of simulated agents. The experimental study of long-term dynamics of threatened resources...

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Veröffentlicht in:Journal of environmental psychology Jg. 22; H. 3; S. 247 - 263
Hauptverfasser: JAGER, WANDER, JANSSEN, MARCO A., VLEK, CHARLES A.J.
Format: Journal Article
Sprache:Englisch
Veröffentlicht: Amsterdam Elsevier India Pvt Ltd 01.09.2002
Elsevier
Schlagworte:
Advertising. Marketing. Consume behavior
Applied psychology
Biological and medical sciences
Communities
Ecological systems approach
Environmental psychology
Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology
Psychology. Psychoanalysis. Psychiatry
Psychology. Psychophysiology
Resource allocation
Uncertainty
Human
Consumer behavior
Uncertainty
Computer simulation
Overexploitation
Satisfaction
Resource
Environment
Cognition
Management
ISSN:0272-4944, 1522-9610
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Zusammenfassung:We report on a series of computer simulation experiments regarding the management of a common resource. We were particularly interested in the effects of uncertainty and satisfaction on the harvesting behaviour of simulated agents. The experimental study of long-term dynamics of threatened resources can hardly be carried out using human subjects. We therefore experimented with simulated consumers, the so-called consumats, whose properties are derived from a comprehensive, multitheoretical model of consumer behaviour. A consumat is equipped with needs and abilities, and may engage in different cognitive processes, such as deliberation, social comparison, imitation, and repetition of previous behaviour. In a first simulation experiment we show as to how uncertainty may stimulate an imitation effect that promotes over-harvesting. In two subsequent series of experiments, we show that increased uncertainty results in an increased ‘optimism’ of consumats regarding future outcomes, an increased likelihood of imitative behaviour, and a lesser adaptation of harvesting behaviour during resource depletion. These ‘process-effects’ promote higher levels of harvesting from a collective resource. The main experimental conclusions and the issue of validating simulation results are discussed.
Bibliographie:ObjectType-Article-1
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ISSN:0272-4944
1522-9610
DOI:10.1006/jevp.2002.0257