GIM-TEC adaptive ionospheric weather assessment and forecast system

The Ionospheric Weather Assessment and Forecast (IWAF) system is a computer software package designed to assess and predict the world-wide representation of 3-D electron density profiles from the Global Ionospheric Maps of Total Electron Content (GIM-TEC). The unique system products include daily-ho...

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Vydané v:	Journal of atmospheric and solar-terrestrial physics Ročník 102; s. 329 - 340
Hlavní autori:	Gulyaeva, T.L., Arikan, F., Hernandez-Pajares, M., Stanislawska, I.
Médium:	Journal Article Publikácia
Jazyk:	English
Vydavateľské údaje:	Elsevier Ltd 01.09.2013
Predmet:	65 Numerical analysis 65D Numerical approximation and computational geometry 65K Mathematical programming, optimization and variational techniques Anàlisi numèrica Astronomia i astrofísica Classificació AMS Computational geometry Crirical frequency Física Geometria computacional Global ionospheric map Investigació operativa Ionospheric weather IRI-Plas Matemàtiques i estadística Numerical analysis Peak height Programació matemàtica Total electron content Àrees temàtiques de la UPC Ionospheric weather Total electron content Crirical frequency Peak height IRI-Plas Global ionospheric map
ISSN:	1364-6826, 1879-1824
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Abstract	The Ionospheric Weather Assessment and Forecast (IWAF) system is a computer software package designed to assess and predict the world-wide representation of 3-D electron density profiles from the Global Ionospheric Maps of Total Electron Content (GIM-TEC). The unique system products include daily-hourly numerical global maps of the F2 layer critical frequency (foF2) and the peak height (hmF2) generated with the International Reference Ionosphere extended to the plasmasphere, IRI-Plas, upgraded by importing the daily-hourly GIM-TEC as a new model driving parameter. Since GIM-TEC maps are provided with 1- or 2-days latency, the global maps forecast for 1 day and 2 days ahead are derived using an harmonic analysis applied to the temporal changes of TEC, foF2 and hmF2 at 5112 grid points of a map encapsulated in IONEX format (−87.5°:2.5°:87.5°N in latitude, −180°:5°:180°E in longitude). The system provides online the ionospheric disturbance warnings in the global W-index map establishing categories of the ionospheric weather from the quiet state (W=±1) to intense storm (W=±4) according to the thresholds set for instant TEC perturbations regarding quiet reference median for the preceding 7 days. The accuracy of IWAF system predictions of TEC, foF2 and hmF2 maps is superior to the standard persistence model with prediction equal to the most recent ‘true’ map. The paper presents outcomes of the new service expressed by the global ionospheric foF2, hmF2 and W-index maps demonstrating the process of origin and propagation of positive and negative ionosphere disturbances in space and time and their forecast under different scenarios. •The Ionospheric Weather Assessment and Forecast, IWAF, system is developed.•IRI-Plas model is used to convert GIM-TEC into foF2 and hmF2 global IONEX maps.•GIM-TEC based W-index map specifies the ionosphere from quiet state to intense storm.•Fourier transform is applied for forecasting global maps 1 day and 2 days in advance.•Validation of IWAF system products is made with Topex/Jason and ionosonde data.
AbstractList	The Ionospheric Weather Assessment and Forecast (IWAF) system is a computer software package designed to assess and predict the world-wide representation of 3-D electron density profiles from the Global Ionospheric Maps of Total Electron Content (GIM-TEC). The unique system products include daily-hourly numerical global maps of the F2 layer critical frequency (foF2) and the peak height (hmF2) generated with the International Reference Ionosphere extended to the plasmasphere, IRI-Plas, upgraded by importing the daily-hourly GIM-TEC as a new model driving parameter. Since GIM-TEC maps are provided with 1- or 2-days latency, the global maps forecast for 1 day and 2 days ahead are derived using an harmonic analysis applied to the temporal changes of TEC, foF2 and hmF2 at 5112 grid points of a map encapsulated in IONEX format (-87.5°:2.5°:87.5°N in latitude, -180°:5°:180°E in longitude). The system provides online the ionospheric disturbance warnings in the global W-index map establishing categories of the ionospheric weather from the quiet state (W=±1) to intense storm (W=±4) according to the thresholds set for instant TEC perturbations regarding quiet reference median for the preceding 7 days. The accuracy of IWAF system predictions of TEC, foF2 and hmF2 maps is superior to the standard persistence model with prediction equal to the most recent ‘true’ map. The paper presents outcomes of the new service expressed by the global ionospheric foF2, hmF2 and W-index maps demonstrating the process of origin and propagation of positive and negative ionosphere disturbances in space and time and their forecast under different scenarios. Peer Reviewed The Ionospheric Weather Assessment and Forecast (IWAF) system is a computer software package designed to assess and predict the world-wide representation of 3-D electron density profiles from the Global Ionospheric Maps of Total Electron Content (GIM-TEC). The unique system products include daily-hourly numerical global maps of the F2 layer critical frequency (foF2) and the peak height (hmF2) generated with the International Reference Ionosphere extended to the plasmasphere, IRI-Plas, upgraded by importing the daily-hourly GIM-TEC as a new model driving parameter. Since GIM-TEC maps are provided with 1- or 2-days latency, the global maps forecast for 1 day and 2 days ahead are derived using an harmonic analysis applied to the temporal changes of TEC, foF2 and hmF2 at 5112 grid points of a map encapsulated in IONEX format (−87.5°:2.5°:87.5°N in latitude, −180°:5°:180°E in longitude). The system provides online the ionospheric disturbance warnings in the global W-index map establishing categories of the ionospheric weather from the quiet state (W=±1) to intense storm (W=±4) according to the thresholds set for instant TEC perturbations regarding quiet reference median for the preceding 7 days. The accuracy of IWAF system predictions of TEC, foF2 and hmF2 maps is superior to the standard persistence model with prediction equal to the most recent ‘true’ map. The paper presents outcomes of the new service expressed by the global ionospheric foF2, hmF2 and W-index maps demonstrating the process of origin and propagation of positive and negative ionosphere disturbances in space and time and their forecast under different scenarios. •The Ionospheric Weather Assessment and Forecast, IWAF, system is developed.•IRI-Plas model is used to convert GIM-TEC into foF2 and hmF2 global IONEX maps.•GIM-TEC based W-index map specifies the ionosphere from quiet state to intense storm.•Fourier transform is applied for forecasting global maps 1 day and 2 days in advance.•Validation of IWAF system products is made with Topex/Jason and ionosonde data.
Author	Arikan, F. Stanislawska, I. Gulyaeva, T.L. Hernandez-Pajares, M.
Author_xml	– sequence: 1 givenname: T.L. surname: Gulyaeva fullname: Gulyaeva, T.L. email: gulyaeva@izmiran.ru, g_tamara@rambler.ru organization: IZMIRAN, Kaluzskoe Sh. 4, Troitsk, Moscow 142190, Russia – sequence: 2 givenname: F. surname: Arikan fullname: Arikan, F. email: arikan@hacettepe.edu.tr organization: Department of EEE, Hacettepe University, Beytepe, Ankara 06800, Turkey – sequence: 3 givenname: M. surname: Hernandez-Pajares fullname: Hernandez-Pajares, M. email: manuel@ma4.upc.edu organization: Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya (UPC), Barcelona, Spain – sequence: 4 givenname: I. surname: Stanislawska fullname: Stanislawska, I. email: stanis@cbk.waw.pl organization: Space Research Center, PAS, Warsaw, Poland
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Cites_doi	10.1016/S1364-6826(02)00034-2 10.1029/2012JA018017 10.1016/j.asr.2003.05.063 10.1029/2011JA017158 10.1016/j.jastp.2005.07.017 10.1134/S0016793211060168 10.1016/j.jastp.2008.02.001 10.1029/92RS01780 10.1016/j.jastp.2009.10.012 10.1029/2007RS003769 10.1029/2000RS002432 10.1029/2006RG000212 10.1016/j.asr.2008.09.028 10.1007/s00190-005-0448-z 10.1007/s00190-008-0266-1 10.1007/s00190-008-0300-3 10.5047/eps.2011.04.007 10.1029/2009JA014890 10.5194/angeo-26-2645-2008 10.1029/2005RG000193 10.1109/URSIGASS.2011.6051029 10.5194/angeo-26-315-2008 10.1029/97RS02707 10.1016/S1364-6826(02)00224-9 10.1186/BF03352960
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Keywords	Ionospheric weather Total electron content Crirical frequency Peak height IRI-Plas Global ionospheric map
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Snippet	The Ionospheric Weather Assessment and Forecast (IWAF) system is a computer software package designed to assess and predict the world-wide representation of...
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SubjectTerms	65 Numerical analysis 65D Numerical approximation and computational geometry 65K Mathematical programming, optimization and variational techniques Anàlisi numèrica Astronomia i astrofísica Classificació AMS Computational geometry Crirical frequency Física Geometria computacional Global ionospheric map Investigació operativa Ionospheric weather IRI-Plas Matemàtiques i estadística Numerical analysis Peak height Programació matemàtica Total electron content Àrees temàtiques de la UPC
Title	GIM-TEC adaptive ionospheric weather assessment and forecast system
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