Effects of weather variation on a declining population of Slavonian Grebes Podiceps auritus

There is an urgent need to develop a detailed understanding of the impacts of climate change on potentially sensitive species of conservation concern. The small population of Slavonian (or Horned) Grebes Podiceps auritus in Scotland has declined markedly in the last two decades in line with predicti...

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Vydané v:	Journal of ornithology Ročník 154; číslo 4; s. 995 - 1006
Hlavní autori:	Ewing, Steven R, Benn, Stuart, Cowie, Neil, Wilson, Lorraine, Wilson, Jeremy D
Médium:	Journal Article
Jazyk:	English
Vydavateľské údaje:	Berlin/Heidelberg Springer-Verlag 01.10.2013 Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Predmet:	Biomedical and Life Sciences breeding breeding season chicks climate climate change data collection Ecology Fish & Wildlife Biology & Management Life Sciences Original Article Podiceps population growth prediction rain Scotland temperature Zoology Scotland Rainfall Climate change Population dynamics Horned Grebe Breeding success
ISSN:	2193-7192, 2193-7206
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Abstract	There is an urgent need to develop a detailed understanding of the impacts of climate change on potentially sensitive species of conservation concern. The small population of Slavonian (or Horned) Grebes Podiceps auritus in Scotland has declined markedly in the last two decades in line with predictions of retrospective bioclimatic models. Here, we exploit a long-term, population-wide dataset to investigate the effects of climate variation on key population parameters in this species, and to assess whether climate change has contributed to its decline. Breeding success of Slavonian Grebes in Scotland is low, but a change in breeding success does not appear to account for the population decline. Grebe population parameters were strongly associated with weather conditions during the breeding season, with a positive effect of temperature during the chick period on breeding success and a negative effect of breeding season rainfall on population growth rates. There was, however, no clear evidence linking climate change to the Slavonian Grebe’s decline, with neither of these key weather variables demonstrating long-term directional trends. Despite this, we nevertheless conclude that the potential effects of climate change on Slavonian Grebes cannot be discounted, as climate impacts may be mediated via mechanisms not considered here. Marked recent changes in Slavonian Grebe populations have also been documented in other northern European countries, and we suggest that a priority of future research should be to try to understand the decline of Slavonian Grebes in Scotland in light of these regional scale population dynamics, which might themselves by climate driven.
AbstractList	There is an urgent need to develop a detailed understanding of the impacts of climate change on potentially sensitive species of conservation concern. The small population of Slavonian (or Horned) Grebes Podiceps auritus in Scotland has declined markedly in the last two decades in line with predictions of retrospective bioclimatic models. Here, we exploit a long-term, population-wide dataset to investigate the effects of climate variation on key population parameters in this species, and to assess whether climate change has contributed to its decline. Breeding success of Slavonian Grebes in Scotland is low, but a change in breeding success does not appear to account for the population decline. Grebe population parameters were strongly associated with weather conditions during the breeding season, with a positive effect of temperature during the chick period on breeding success and a negative effect of breeding season rainfall on population growth rates. There was, however, no clear evidence linking climate change to the Slavonian Grebe’s decline, with neither of these key weather variables demonstrating long-term directional trends. Despite this, we nevertheless conclude that the potential effects of climate change on Slavonian Grebes cannot be discounted, as climate impacts may be mediated via mechanisms not considered here. Marked recent changes in Slavonian Grebe populations have also been documented in other northern European countries, and we suggest that a priority of future research should be to try to understand the decline of Slavonian Grebes in Scotland in light of these regional scale population dynamics, which might themselves by climate driven. There is an urgent need to develop a detailed understanding of the impacts of climate change on potentially sensitive species of conservation concern. The small population of Slavonian (or Horned) Grebes Podiceps auritus in Scotland has declined markedly in the last two decades in line with predictions of retrospective bioclimatic models. Here, we exploit a long-term, population-wide dataset to investigate the effects of climate variation on key population parameters in this species, and to assess whether climate change has contributed to its decline. Breeding success of Slavonian Grebes in Scotland is low, but a change in breeding success does not appear to account for the population decline. Grebe population parameters were strongly associated with weather conditions during the breeding season, with a positive effect of temperature during the chick period on breeding success and a negative effect of breeding season rainfall on population growth rates. There was, however, no clear evidence linking climate change to the Slavonian Grebe’s decline, with neither of these key weather variables demonstrating long-term directional trends. Despite this, we nevertheless conclude that the potential effects of climate change on Slavonian Grebes cannot be discounted, as climate impacts may be mediated via mechanisms not considered here. Marked recent changes in Slavonian Grebe populations have also been documented in other northern European countries, and we suggest that a priority of future research should be to try to understand the decline of Slavonian Grebes in Scotland in light of these regional scale population dynamics, which might themselves by climate driven.
Author	Benn, Stuart Wilson, Jeremy D Cowie, Neil Ewing, Steven R Wilson, Lorraine
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Cites_doi	10.1111/j.1365-2656.2006.01121.x 10.2307/5939 10.1080/00063657.2011.585630 10.1038/nature02121 10.1098/rstb.2010.0055 10.1111/j.1365-2656.2008.01422.x 10.1007/s10750-009-0078-1 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2006.00465.x 10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.37.091305.110100 10.1111/j.1654-1103.2004.tb02310.x 10.1080/00063650509461396 10.1139/z82-186 10.1675/063.032.0206 10.3354/cr00920 10.2193/2006-180 10.2307/3676290 10.1046/j.1365-2656.2002.00598.x 10.2307/1939926 10.1126/science.1071281 10.1111/j.1474-919X.1985.tb05051.x 10.1007/s00442-008-1242-4 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01340.x 10.1111/j.1469-185X.2011.00206.x 10.1890/0012-9615(2006)76[323:EDDPNA]2.0.CO;2 10.1111/j.2041-210X.2009.00001.x 10.1098/rspb.2006.3667 10.1029/134GM01 10.1098/rsbl.2008.0052 10.1007/s10933-012-9587-4 10.1080/00063650509461386 10.1111/j.2007.0906-7590.05171.x
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Snippet	There is an urgent need to develop a detailed understanding of the impacts of climate change on potentially sensitive species of conservation concern. The...
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SubjectTerms	Biomedical and Life Sciences breeding breeding season chicks climate climate change data collection Ecology Fish & Wildlife Biology & Management Life Sciences Original Article Podiceps population growth prediction rain Scotland temperature Zoology
Title	Effects of weather variation on a declining population of Slavonian Grebes Podiceps auritus
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