Prediction for Coastal Wind Speed Based on Improved Variational Mode Decomposition and Recurrent Neural Network

Accurate and comprehensive wind speed forecasting is crucial for improving efficiency in offshore wind power operation systems in coastal regions. However, raw wind speed data often suffer from noise and missing values, which can undermine the prediction performance. This study proposes a systematic...

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Veröffentlicht in:	Energies (Basel) Jg. 18; H. 3; S. 542
Hauptverfasser:	Du, Muyuan, Zhang, Zhimeng, Ji, Chunning
Format:	Journal Article
Sprache:	Englisch
Veröffentlicht:	Basel MDPI AG 01.02.2025
Schlagworte:	Accuracy Algorithms Analysis Buildings Case studies Cost analysis data cleaning data imputation Data integrity Datasets Decision trees Deep learning Efficiency Forecasting Green technology Information management Machine learning Mathematical optimization Neural networks Noise control Optimization algorithms Performance evaluation Remodeling, restoration, etc Seq2Seq with attention Time series variational mode decomposition Water levels Wind power wind prediction United States United Kingdom Yellow Sea
ISSN:	1996-1073, 1996-1073
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Abstract	Accurate and comprehensive wind speed forecasting is crucial for improving efficiency in offshore wind power operation systems in coastal regions. However, raw wind speed data often suffer from noise and missing values, which can undermine the prediction performance. This study proposes a systematic framework, termed VMD-RUN-Seq2Seq-Attention, for noise reduction, outlier detection, and wind speed prediction by integrating Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD), the Runge–Kutta optimization algorithm (RUN), and a Sequence-to-Sequence model with an Attention mechanism (Seq2Seq-Attention). Using wind speed data from the Shidao, Xiaomaidao, and Lianyungang stations as case studies, a fitness function based on the Pearson correlation coefficient was developed to optimize the VMD mode count and penalty factor. A comparative analysis of different Intrinsic Mode Function (IMF) selection ratios revealed that selecting a 50% IMF ratio effectively retains the intrinsic information of the raw data while minimizing noise. For outlier detection, statistical methods were employed, followed by a comparative evaluation of three models—LSTM, LSTM-KAN, and Seq2Seq-Attention—for multi-step wind speed forecasting over horizons ranging from 1 to 12 h. The results consistently showed that the Seq2Seq-Attention model achieved superior predictive accuracy across all forecast horizons, with the correlation coefficient of its prediction results greater than 0.9 in all cases. The proposed VMD-RUN-Seq2Seq-Attention framework outperformed other methods in the denoising, data cleansing, and reconstruction of the original wind speed dataset, with a maximum improvement of 21% in accuracy, producing highly accurate and reliable results. This approach offers a robust methodology for improving data quality and enhancing wind speed forecasting accuracy in coastal environments.
AbstractList	Accurate and comprehensive wind speed forecasting is crucial for improving efficiency in offshore wind power operation systems in coastal regions. However, raw wind speed data often suffer from noise and missing values, which can undermine the prediction performance. This study proposes a systematic framework, termed VMD-RUN-Seq2Seq-Attention, for noise reduction, outlier detection, and wind speed prediction by integrating Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD), the Runge–Kutta optimization algorithm (RUN), and a Sequence-to-Sequence model with an Attention mechanism (Seq2Seq-Attention). Using wind speed data from the Shidao, Xiaomaidao, and Lianyungang stations as case studies, a fitness function based on the Pearson correlation coefficient was developed to optimize the VMD mode count and penalty factor. A comparative analysis of different Intrinsic Mode Function (IMF) selection ratios revealed that selecting a 50% IMF ratio effectively retains the intrinsic information of the raw data while minimizing noise. For outlier detection, statistical methods were employed, followed by a comparative evaluation of three models—LSTM, LSTM-KAN, and Seq2Seq-Attention—for multi-step wind speed forecasting over horizons ranging from 1 to 12 h. The results consistently showed that the Seq2Seq-Attention model achieved superior predictive accuracy across all forecast horizons, with the correlation coefficient of its prediction results greater than 0.9 in all cases. The proposed VMD-RUN-Seq2Seq-Attention framework outperformed other methods in the denoising, data cleansing, and reconstruction of the original wind speed dataset, with a maximum improvement of 21% in accuracy, producing highly accurate and reliable results. This approach offers a robust methodology for improving data quality and enhancing wind speed forecasting accuracy in coastal environments.
Audience	Academic
Author	Du, Muyuan Zhang, Zhimeng Ji, Chunning
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SubjectTerms	Accuracy Algorithms Analysis Buildings Case studies Cost analysis data cleaning data imputation Data integrity Datasets Decision trees Deep learning Efficiency Forecasting Green technology Information management Machine learning Mathematical optimization Neural networks Noise control Optimization algorithms Performance evaluation Remodeling, restoration, etc Seq2Seq with attention Time series variational mode decomposition Water levels Wind power wind prediction
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Title	Prediction for Coastal Wind Speed Based on Improved Variational Mode Decomposition and Recurrent Neural Network
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