Development and validation of a phenological model for the univoltine European corn borer
Biological control of a univoltine race of European corn borer, Ostrinia nubilalis Hübner (Lepidoptera: Crambidae), by Trichogramma in Switzerland is currently timed according to repeated, semi‐field observations of the post‐diapause development of the pest at one site. We developed a phenology mode...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Journal of applied entomology (1986) Jg. 141; H. 6; S. 421 - 430 |
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| ISSN: | 0931-2048, 1439-0418 |
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| Abstract | Biological control of a univoltine race of European corn borer, Ostrinia nubilalis Hübner (Lepidoptera: Crambidae), by Trichogramma in Switzerland is currently timed according to repeated, semi‐field observations of the post‐diapause development of the pest at one site. We developed a phenology model with the aims of replacing this costly labour practice and by considering the Swiss landscape. Observations collected over 29 years were used for model calibration and validation. We parameterized a time‐varying distributed delay model based on published laboratory observations of development durations at constant temperatures. The model was driven with hourly temperature recordings beginning on January 1. The calibration of the mean development rates and their variations was based on semi‐field data of larval and pupal development. The model, with its calibrated parameters and their variations, allowed the simulation of mean predictions and prediction intervals. We validated the model predictions of emergence with flight data (obtained via light traps) from several sites in western and northern Switzerland. The simulated mean emergence was 6.9 degree‐days earlier than the observed flight at the calibration sites and only 0.5 degree‐days earlier than the observed flight at other sites. Our simulation of pupation explained half of the variation in emergence time, whereas semi‐field observations of pupation explained three‐quarters of this variation. Our model simulations are not subjected to the local potential biases. Simulation errors from a year with an extremely dry spring were explained by the lack of consideration of humidity by the model. Our simulations provide a valid and less labour‐intensive alternative to observations for timing biological control in the maize‐growing areas of Switzerland and likely other areas of Europe. |
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| AbstractList | Biological control of a univoltine race of European corn borer, Ostrinia nubilalis Hubner (Lepidoptera: Crambidae), by Trichogramma in Switzerland is currently timed according to repeated, semi-field observations of the post-diapause development of the pest at one site. We developed a phenology model with the aims of replacing this costly labour practice and by considering the Swiss landscape. Observations collected over 29 years were used for model calibration and validation. We parameterized a time-varying distributed delay model based on published laboratory observations of development durations at constant temperatures. The model was driven with hourly temperature recordings beginning on January 1. The calibration of the mean development rates and their variations was based on semi-field data of larval and pupal development. The model, with its calibrated parameters and their variations, allowed the simulation of mean predictions and prediction intervals. We validated the model predictions of emergence with flight data (obtained via light traps) from several sites in western and northern Switzerland. The simulated mean emergence was 6.9 degree-days earlier than the observed flight at the calibration sites and only 0.5 degree-days earlier than the observed flight at other sites. Our simulation of pupation explained half of the variation in emergence time, whereas semi-field observations of pupation explained three-quarters of this variation. Our model simulations are not subjected to the local potential biases. Simulation errors from a year with an extremely dry spring were explained by the lack of consideration of humidity by the model. Our simulations provide a valid and less labour-intensive alternative to observations for timing biological control in the maize-growing areas of Switzerland and likely other areas of Europe. Biological control of a univoltine race of European corn borer, Ostrinia nubilalis Hübner (Lepidoptera: Crambidae), by Trichogramma in Switzerland is currently timed according to repeated, semi‐field observations of the post‐diapause development of the pest at one site. We developed a phenology model with the aims of replacing this costly labour practice and by considering the Swiss landscape. Observations collected over 29 years were used for model calibration and validation. We parameterized a time‐varying distributed delay model based on published laboratory observations of development durations at constant temperatures. The model was driven with hourly temperature recordings beginning on January 1. The calibration of the mean development rates and their variations was based on semi‐field data of larval and pupal development. The model, with its calibrated parameters and their variations, allowed the simulation of mean predictions and prediction intervals. We validated the model predictions of emergence with flight data (obtained via light traps) from several sites in western and northern Switzerland. The simulated mean emergence was 6.9 degree‐days earlier than the observed flight at the calibration sites and only 0.5 degree‐days earlier than the observed flight at other sites. Our simulation of pupation explained half of the variation in emergence time, whereas semi‐field observations of pupation explained three‐quarters of this variation. Our model simulations are not subjected to the local potential biases. Simulation errors from a year with an extremely dry spring were explained by the lack of consideration of humidity by the model. Our simulations provide a valid and less labour‐intensive alternative to observations for timing biological control in the maize‐growing areas of Switzerland and likely other areas of Europe. Biological control of a univoltine race of European corn borer, Ostrinia nubilalis Hübner (Lepidoptera: Crambidae), by Trichogramma in Switzerland is currently timed according to repeated, semi‐field observations of the post‐diapause development of the pest at one site. We developed a phenology model with the aims of replacing this costly labour practice and by considering the Swiss landscape. Observations collected over 29 years were used for model calibration and validation. We parameterized a time‐varying distributed delay model based on published laboratory observations of development durations at constant temperatures. The model was driven with hourly temperature recordings beginning on January 1. The calibration of the mean development rates and their variations was based on semi‐field data of larval and pupal development. The model, with its calibrated parameters and their variations, allowed the simulation of mean predictions and prediction intervals. We validated the model predictions of emergence with flight data (obtained via light traps) from several sites in western and northern Switzerland. The simulated mean emergence was 6.9 degree‐days earlier than the observed flight at the calibration sites and only 0.5 degree‐days earlier than the observed flight at other sites. Our simulation of pupation explained half of the variation in emergence time, whereas semi‐field observations of pupation explained three‐quarters of this variation. Our model simulations are not subjected to the local potential biases. Simulation errors from a year with an extremely dry spring were explained by the lack of consideration of humidity by the model. Our simulations provide a valid and less labour‐intensive alternative to observations for timing biological control in the maize‐growing areas of Switzerland and likely other areas of Europe. Biological control of a univoltine race of European corn borer, Ostrinia nubilalis Hübner (Lepidoptera: Crambidae), by Trichogramma in Switzerland is currently timed according to repeated, semi‐field observations of the post‐diapause development of the pest at one site. We developed a phenology model with the aims of replacing this costly labour practice and by considering the Swiss landscape. Observations collected over 29 years were used for model calibration and validation. We parameterized a time‐varying distributed delay model based on published laboratory observations of development durations at constant temperatures. The model was driven with hourly temperature recordings beginning on January 1. The calibration of the mean development rates and their variations was based on semi‐field data of larval and pupal development. The model, with its calibrated parameters and their variations, allowed the simulation of mean predictions and prediction intervals. We validated the model predictions of emergence with flight data (obtained via light traps) from several sites in western and northern Switzerland. The simulated mean emergence was 6.9 degree‐days earlier than the observed flight at the calibration sites and only 0.5 degree‐days earlier than the observed flight at other sites. Our simulation of pupation explained half of the variation in emergence time, whereas semi‐field observations of pupation explained three‐quarters of this variation. Our model simulations are not subjected to the local potential biases. Simulation errors from a year with an extremely dry spring were explained by the lack of consideration of humidity by the model. Our simulations provide a valid and less labour‐intensive alternative to observations for timing biological control in the maize‐growing areas of Switzerland and likely other areas of Europe. |
| Author | Schaub, L. Graf, B. Breitenmoser, S. Derron, J. |
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| Cites_doi | 10.1007/s004840050033 10.1111/j.1570-7458.1996.tb00794.x 10.1016/j.bulm.2004.04.003 10.1007/s00484-011-0464-z 10.1111/j.1365-2338.2007.01121.x 10.1111/j.1570-7458.2005.00339.x 10.1093/jee/58.2.300 10.1093/jee/58.2.344 10.1046/j.1365-2583.1999.820213.x 10.1109/TSMC.1976.4309549 10.1007/s11538-009-9494-7 10.4039/Ent1081403-12 10.1093/jee/45.5.877 10.4039/Ent1221247-11 10.4039/Ent113433-5 10.1007/BF01020358 10.1093/ee/24.2.436 10.1111/j.1365-3032.1997.tb01161.x 10.1007/s10343-008-0180-8 10.1007/BF00276960 10.1093/ee/25.2.310 10.1016/0022-1910(67)90123-0 10.1146/annurev.en.41.010196.002111 10.1093/ee/24.1.10 10.1093/ee/7.5.717 10.1093/ee/11.6.1307 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2007.04.014 |
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| SubjectTerms | Biological control Calibration Computer simulation Corn Delay Diapause Drying Emergence flight heat sums Humidity labor landscapes larvae Light traps Mathematical models Ostrinia nubilalis pests Phenology prediction pupal development Pupation Simulation simulation models spring Spring (season) Switzerland temperature Temperature effects Time measurement Trichogramma univoltine univoltine habit Zea mays |
| Title | Development and validation of a phenological model for the univoltine European corn borer |
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