Increase in the number of explosive low‒level cyclones around King George Island in the last three decades
This paper documents an increase in the number of observed explosive cyclones (EC) at King George Island, South Shetland Islands, Antarctica, over the 1989‒2020 period. In ECs at 60o latitudes the surface atmospheric pressure drops ≥24 hPA in 24 hours. The annual EC frequency time series shows a sig...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências Jg. 94; H. suppl 1; S. e20210633 |
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| Abstract | This paper documents an increase in the number of observed explosive cyclones (EC) at King George Island, South Shetland Islands, Antarctica, over the 1989‒2020 period. In ECs at 60o latitudes the surface atmospheric pressure drops ≥24 hPA in 24 hours. The annual EC frequency time series shows a significant positive trend of ~2.7 cyclones/decade, with a break in 2003 and average numbers of 7.3 and 11.8 events before and after that break, respectively. The increase follows closely earlier documented global sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly trends for the 1981‒2018 period, partially attributed to global warming and to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Connections between EC frequency and SST might occur through variations in SST in the southeastern Pacific and southwestern Atlantic, with anomalous cold conditions favoring an increase in ECs. We also found close relations between the number of ECs with simultaneous occurrences of PDO and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation in opposite phases, so that after 2003 they were in the cold and warm phases, respectively, and vice-versa before 2003. Both low-frequency modes seem to modulate the number of ECs. As per the authors knowledge these results have not been discussed before and may help climate modeling studies and weather forecasts. |
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| AbstractList | Abstract This paper documents an increase in the number of observed explosive cyclones (EC) at King George Island, South Shetland Islands, Antarctica, over the 1989‒2020 period. In ECs at 60o latitudes the surface atmospheric pressure drops ≥24 hPA in 24 hours. The annual EC frequency time series shows a significant positive trend of ~2.7 cyclones/decade, with a break in 2003 and average numbers of 7.3 and 11.8 events before and after that break, respectively. The increase follows closely earlier documented global sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly trends for the 1981‒2018 period, partially attributed to global warming and to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Connections between EC frequency and SST might occur through variations in SST in the southeastern Pacific and southwestern Atlantic, with anomalous cold conditions favoring an increase in ECs. We also found close relations between the number of ECs with simultaneous occurrences of PDO and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation in opposite phases, so that after 2003 they were in the cold and warm phases, respectively, and vice-versa before 2003. Both low-frequency modes seem to modulate the number of ECs. As per the authors knowledge these results have not been discussed before and may help climate modeling studies and weather forecasts. This paper documents an increase in the number of observed explosive cyclones (EC) at King George Island, South Shetland Islands, Antarctica, over the 1989‒2020 period. In ECs at 60o latitudes the surface atmospheric pressure drops ≥24 hPA in 24 hours. The annual EC frequency time series shows a significant positive trend of ~2.7 cyclones/decade, with a break in 2003 and average numbers of 7.3 and 11.8 events before and after that break, respectively. The increase follows closely earlier documented global sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly trends for the 1981‒2018 period, partially attributed to global warming and to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Connections between EC frequency and SST might occur through variations in SST in the southeastern Pacific and southwestern Atlantic, with anomalous cold conditions favoring an increase in ECs. We also found close relations between the number of ECs with simultaneous occurrences of PDO and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation in opposite phases, so that after 2003 they were in the cold and warm phases, respectively, and vice-versa before 2003. Both low-frequency modes seem to modulate the number of ECs. As per the authors knowledge these results have not been discussed before and may help climate modeling studies and weather forecasts. This paper documents an increase in the number of observed explosive cyclones (EC) at King George Island, South Shetland Islands, Antarctica, over the 1989‒2020 period. In ECs at 60o latitudes the surface atmospheric pressure drops ≥24 hPA in 24 hours. The annual EC frequency time series shows a significant positive trend of ~2.7 cyclones/decade, with a break in 2003 and average numbers of 7.3 and 11.8 events before and after that break, respectively. The increase follows closely earlier documented global sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly trends for the 1981‒2018 period, partially attributed to global warming and to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Connections between EC frequency and SST might occur through variations in SST in the southeastern Pacific and southwestern Atlantic, with anomalous cold conditions favoring an increase in ECs. We also found close relations between the number of ECs with simultaneous occurrences of PDO and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation in opposite phases, so that after 2003 they were in the cold and warm phases, respectively, and vice-versa before 2003. Both low-frequency modes seem to modulate the number of ECs. As per the authors knowledge these results have not been discussed before and may help climate modeling studies and weather forecasts.This paper documents an increase in the number of observed explosive cyclones (EC) at King George Island, South Shetland Islands, Antarctica, over the 1989‒2020 period. In ECs at 60o latitudes the surface atmospheric pressure drops ≥24 hPA in 24 hours. The annual EC frequency time series shows a significant positive trend of ~2.7 cyclones/decade, with a break in 2003 and average numbers of 7.3 and 11.8 events before and after that break, respectively. The increase follows closely earlier documented global sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly trends for the 1981‒2018 period, partially attributed to global warming and to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Connections between EC frequency and SST might occur through variations in SST in the southeastern Pacific and southwestern Atlantic, with anomalous cold conditions favoring an increase in ECs. We also found close relations between the number of ECs with simultaneous occurrences of PDO and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation in opposite phases, so that after 2003 they were in the cold and warm phases, respectively, and vice-versa before 2003. Both low-frequency modes seem to modulate the number of ECs. As per the authors knowledge these results have not been discussed before and may help climate modeling studies and weather forecasts. |
| Author | OLIVEIRA, MARCELO R. CERÓN, WILMAR L. KAYANO, MARY T. ROSA, MARCELO B. SETZER, ALBERTO W. |
| AuthorAffiliation | Universidad del Valle Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais WEC- World Environmental Conservancy |
| AuthorAffiliation_xml | – name: Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais – name: Universidad del Valle – name: WEC- World Environmental Conservancy |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: ALBERTO W. orcidid: 0000-0002-2466-7366 surname: SETZER fullname: SETZER, ALBERTO W. organization: Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais/ INPE, Brazil – sequence: 2 givenname: MARY T. orcidid: 0000-0002-2516-295X surname: KAYANO fullname: KAYANO, MARY T. organization: Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais/ INPE, Brazil – sequence: 3 givenname: MARCELO R. orcidid: 0000-0001-6332-035X surname: OLIVEIRA fullname: OLIVEIRA, MARCELO R. organization: Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais/ INPE, Brazil; WEC- World Environmental Conservancy, USA – sequence: 4 givenname: WILMAR L. orcidid: 0000-0003-1901-9572 surname: CERÓN fullname: CERÓN, WILMAR L. organization: Universidad del Valle, Colombia – sequence: 5 givenname: MARCELO B. orcidid: 0000-0002-0627-4876 surname: ROSA fullname: ROSA, MARCELO B. organization: Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais/ INPE, Brazil |
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| Cites_doi | 10.1002/asl.694 10.1002/joc.6326 10.1175/1520-0493(1980)108<1589:SDCOT>2.0.CO;2 10.1029/2000GL012745 10.1080/01621459.1968.10480934 10.1175/1520-0434(1997)012<0595:OIOCAT>2.0.CO;2 10.1016/S0277-3791(05)80003-4 10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<1069:APICOW>2.0.CO;2 10.2307/1907187 10.1016/S0079-6611(00)00033-1 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0553.1 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0564.1 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0836.1 10.1002/joc.608 10.1007/s00382-015-2705-z 10.1002/2016GL069067 10.22499/2.5801.004 10.1175/1520-0493(2002)130<2188:ECDITS>2.0.CO;2 10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<0873:MSHECB>2.0.CO;2 10.1175/1520-0493(1995)123<1601:ACOCFT>2.0.CO;2 10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<2679:ICITEM>2.0.CO;2 10.1126/science.288.5473.1984 10.1002/grl.50114 10.2307/2346729 |
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| Keywords | climate variability low-frequency variability explosive cyclones trends sea surface temperature |
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| Snippet | This paper documents an increase in the number of observed explosive cyclones (EC) at King George Island, South Shetland Islands, Antarctica, over the... Abstract This paper documents an increase in the number of observed explosive cyclones (EC) at King George Island, South Shetland Islands, Antarctica, over the... |
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| Title | Increase in the number of explosive low‒level cyclones around King George Island in the last three decades |
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