Risk assessment of construction projects using Monte Carlo simulation
PurposeThis paper aims to develop a process for prioritizing project risks that integrates the decision-maker's risk attitude, uncertainty about risks both in terms of the associated probability and impact ratings, and correlations across risk assessments.Design/methodology/approachThis paper a...
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| Published in: | International journal of managing projects in business Vol. 14; no. 5; pp. 1202 - 1218 |
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| Main Authors: | , |
| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | English |
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Bingley
Emerald Publishing Limited
06.07.2021
Emerald Group Publishing Limited |
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| ISSN: | 1753-8378, 1753-8386 |
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| Abstract | PurposeThis paper aims to develop a process for prioritizing project risks that integrates the decision-maker's risk attitude, uncertainty about risks both in terms of the associated probability and impact ratings, and correlations across risk assessments.Design/methodology/approachThis paper adopts a Monte Carlo Simulation-based approach to capture the uncertainty associated with project risks. Risks are prioritized based on their relative expected utility values. The proposed process is operationalized through a real application in the construction industry.FindingsThe proposed process helped in identifying low-probability, high-impact risks that were overlooked in the conventional risk matrix-based prioritization scheme. While considering the expected risk exposure of individual risks, none of the risks were located in the high-risk exposure zone; however, the proposed Monte Carlo Simulation-based approach revealed risks with a high probability of occurrence in the high-risk exposure zone. Using the expected utility-based approach alone in prioritizing risks may lead to ignoring few critical risks, which can only be captured through a rigorous simulation-based approach.Originality/valueMonte Carlo Simulation has been used to aggregate the risk matrix-based data and disaggregate and map the resulting risk profiles with underlying distributions. The proposed process supported risk prioritization based on the decision-maker's risk attitude and identified low-probability, high-impact risks and high-probability, high-impact risks. |
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| AbstractList | PurposeThis paper aims to develop a process for prioritizing project risks that integrates the decision-maker's risk attitude, uncertainty about risks both in terms of the associated probability and impact ratings, and correlations across risk assessments.Design/methodology/approachThis paper adopts a Monte Carlo Simulation-based approach to capture the uncertainty associated with project risks. Risks are prioritized based on their relative expected utility values. The proposed process is operationalized through a real application in the construction industry.FindingsThe proposed process helped in identifying low-probability, high-impact risks that were overlooked in the conventional risk matrix-based prioritization scheme. While considering the expected risk exposure of individual risks, none of the risks were located in the high-risk exposure zone; however, the proposed Monte Carlo Simulation-based approach revealed risks with a high probability of occurrence in the high-risk exposure zone. Using the expected utility-based approach alone in prioritizing risks may lead to ignoring few critical risks, which can only be captured through a rigorous simulation-based approach.Originality/valueMonte Carlo Simulation has been used to aggregate the risk matrix-based data and disaggregate and map the resulting risk profiles with underlying distributions. The proposed process supported risk prioritization based on the decision-maker's risk attitude and identified low-probability, high-impact risks and high-probability, high-impact risks. |
| Author | Qazi, Abroon Simsekler, Mecit Can Emre |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Abroon surname: Qazi fullname: Qazi, Abroon email: aeroactuary@gmail.com – sequence: 2 givenname: Mecit Can Emre orcidid: 0000-0002-1555-5012 surname: Simsekler fullname: Simsekler, Mecit Can Emre email: emre.simsekler@ku.ac.ae |
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| CitedBy_id | crossref_primary_10_3390_buildings14082563 crossref_primary_10_1057_s41599_024_03180_5 crossref_primary_10_1108_CI_10_2022_0254 crossref_primary_10_1080_15623599_2023_2267852 crossref_primary_10_1080_13467581_2025_2513064 crossref_primary_10_3233_JCM_247479 crossref_primary_10_3390_pr12010067 crossref_primary_10_1061_JCEMD4_COENG_14685 crossref_primary_10_1108_IJMPB_02_2022_0050 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_cie_2022_108370 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_cie_2025_110921 crossref_primary_10_3390_chemengineering9040075 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_jobe_2022_105317 |
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| Keywords | Risk matrix Risk attitude Risk assessment Monte Carlo simulation Project risks |
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| Title | Risk assessment of construction projects using Monte Carlo simulation |
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