Regional flood risk assessment via coupled fuzzy c-means clustering methods: an empirical analysis from China’s Huaihe River Basin

This study contributed to the comprehensive assessment of flood risk in the Huaihongnanpian flood control protected area (simplified as the HHNP) of the Huaihe River Basin in China. Flood risk analyses were performed by incorporating flood hazard and vulnerability. Flood hazard was simulated by a 1D...

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Published in:	Natural hazards (Dordrecht) Vol. 93; no. 2; pp. 803 - 822
Main Authors:	Wang, Zongzhi, Wu, Jingjing, Cheng, Liang, Liu, Kelin, Wei, Yi-Ming
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	Dordrecht Springer Netherlands 01.09.2018 Springer Nature B.V
Subjects:	Agricultural management Civil Engineering Clustering Computer simulation Duration Earth and Environmental Science Earth Sciences Empirical analysis Environmental Management Environmental risk Factor analysis Flood control Flood hazards Flood insurance Flood management Flood risk Floods Flow velocity Geophysics/Geodesy Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences Hydrodynamic models Hydrodynamics Hydrogeology Indicators Land cover Land use Natural Hazards Original Paper Population density Regional analysis Residential areas Residential density Risk assessment River basins River networks Rivers Shelters Socioeconomic factors Socioeconomics Spatial distribution Two dimensional flow Two dimensional models Vulnerability China Huaihe River means clustering Flood hazard Factor analysis Flood risk assessment Clustering validity function Huaihe River Basin Vulnerability Fuzzy
ISSN:	0921-030X, 1573-0840
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Abstract	This study contributed to the comprehensive assessment of flood risk in the Huaihongnanpian flood control protected area (simplified as the HHNP) of the Huaihe River Basin in China. Flood risk analyses were performed by incorporating flood hazard and vulnerability. Flood hazard was simulated by a 1D–2D coupled hydrodynamic model. Flow velocity, inundation duration, and inundation depth were taken as hazard indicators, while agricultural population proportions, female population proportions, GDP per unit area, GDP per person, population density, residential density, shelter density, the land-use sensitivity index, road network density, and river network density were used as vulnerability indicators. Based on these indicators, a regional flood risk assessment model was put forward, which coupled fuzzy c -means clustering, factor analysis, and a clustering validity function. As an example, a proposed model was applied to evaluate the degree of flood risk for 15 townships in the HHNP. The research results showed that (1) flood risk in the HHNP was closely related to three main factors: socioeconomic factor, land cover factor, and flood factor; (2) the degree of risk was objectively divided into six zones: especially high, high, relatively high, medium, relatively low and low; and (3) in the 15 townships, Xiaobengbu (XB), Chengguan (CG), and Wuxiaojie (WX) fell into the especially high, high, and relatively high zones, respectively. Xinji (XJ), Toupu (TP), Daxin (DX), Caoguzhang (CGZ), Meiqiao (MQ), Caolaoji (CL), and Mohekou (MH) fell into the medium-risk zone. Linbeihuizu (LB) was categorized into the relatively low-risk zone, and Xinmaqiao (XM), Wangzhuang (WZ), Kuainan (KN), and Weizhuang (WZ) fell into the low-risk zone. The research results revealed the main driving factors and the spatial distribution of flood risk in the HHNP; therefore, it is highly significant for us to understand the main flood risk sources to provide guidance for flood control and management in the HHNP.
AbstractList	This study contributed to the comprehensive assessment of flood risk in the Huaihongnanpian flood control protected area (simplified as the HHNP) of the Huaihe River Basin in China. Flood risk analyses were performed by incorporating flood hazard and vulnerability. Flood hazard was simulated by a 1D–2D coupled hydrodynamic model. Flow velocity, inundation duration, and inundation depth were taken as hazard indicators, while agricultural population proportions, female population proportions, GDP per unit area, GDP per person, population density, residential density, shelter density, the land-use sensitivity index, road network density, and river network density were used as vulnerability indicators. Based on these indicators, a regional flood risk assessment model was put forward, which coupled fuzzy c -means clustering, factor analysis, and a clustering validity function. As an example, a proposed model was applied to evaluate the degree of flood risk for 15 townships in the HHNP. The research results showed that (1) flood risk in the HHNP was closely related to three main factors: socioeconomic factor, land cover factor, and flood factor; (2) the degree of risk was objectively divided into six zones: especially high, high, relatively high, medium, relatively low and low; and (3) in the 15 townships, Xiaobengbu (XB), Chengguan (CG), and Wuxiaojie (WX) fell into the especially high, high, and relatively high zones, respectively. Xinji (XJ), Toupu (TP), Daxin (DX), Caoguzhang (CGZ), Meiqiao (MQ), Caolaoji (CL), and Mohekou (MH) fell into the medium-risk zone. Linbeihuizu (LB) was categorized into the relatively low-risk zone, and Xinmaqiao (XM), Wangzhuang (WZ), Kuainan (KN), and Weizhuang (WZ) fell into the low-risk zone. The research results revealed the main driving factors and the spatial distribution of flood risk in the HHNP; therefore, it is highly significant for us to understand the main flood risk sources to provide guidance for flood control and management in the HHNP. This study contributed to the comprehensive assessment of flood risk in the Huaihongnanpian flood control protected area (simplified as the HHNP) of the Huaihe River Basin in China. Flood risk analyses were performed by incorporating flood hazard and vulnerability. Flood hazard was simulated by a 1D–2D coupled hydrodynamic model. Flow velocity, inundation duration, and inundation depth were taken as hazard indicators, while agricultural population proportions, female population proportions, GDP per unit area, GDP per person, population density, residential density, shelter density, the land-use sensitivity index, road network density, and river network density were used as vulnerability indicators. Based on these indicators, a regional flood risk assessment model was put forward, which coupled fuzzy c-means clustering, factor analysis, and a clustering validity function. As an example, a proposed model was applied to evaluate the degree of flood risk for 15 townships in the HHNP. The research results showed that (1) flood risk in the HHNP was closely related to three main factors: socioeconomic factor, land cover factor, and flood factor; (2) the degree of risk was objectively divided into six zones: especially high, high, relatively high, medium, relatively low and low; and (3) in the 15 townships, Xiaobengbu (XB), Chengguan (CG), and Wuxiaojie (WX) fell into the especially high, high, and relatively high zones, respectively. Xinji (XJ), Toupu (TP), Daxin (DX), Caoguzhang (CGZ), Meiqiao (MQ), Caolaoji (CL), and Mohekou (MH) fell into the medium-risk zone. Linbeihuizu (LB) was categorized into the relatively low-risk zone, and Xinmaqiao (XM), Wangzhuang (WZ), Kuainan (KN), and Weizhuang (WZ) fell into the low-risk zone. The research results revealed the main driving factors and the spatial distribution of flood risk in the HHNP; therefore, it is highly significant for us to understand the main flood risk sources to provide guidance for flood control and management in the HHNP.
Author	Wu, Jingjing Wei, Yi-Ming Wang, Zongzhi Liu, Kelin Cheng, Liang
Author_xml	– sequence: 1 givenname: Zongzhi surname: Wang fullname: Wang, Zongzhi email: zzwang@nhri.cn organization: State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute – sequence: 2 givenname: Jingjing surname: Wu fullname: Wu, Jingjing organization: State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University – sequence: 3 givenname: Liang surname: Cheng fullname: Cheng, Liang organization: State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute – sequence: 4 givenname: Kelin surname: Liu fullname: Liu, Kelin organization: State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute – sequence: 5 givenname: Yi-Ming surname: Wei fullname: Wei, Yi-Ming email: wei@bit.edu.cn organization: Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology, School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing Key Lab of Energy Economics and Environmental Management
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Copyright	Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature 2018 Natural Hazards is a copyright of Springer, (2018). All Rights Reserved.
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Snippet	This study contributed to the comprehensive assessment of flood risk in the Huaihongnanpian flood control protected area (simplified as the HHNP) of the Huaihe...
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SubjectTerms	Agricultural management Civil Engineering Clustering Computer simulation Duration Earth and Environmental Science Earth Sciences Empirical analysis Environmental Management Environmental risk Factor analysis Flood control Flood hazards Flood insurance Flood management Flood risk Floods Flow velocity Geophysics/Geodesy Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences Hydrodynamic models Hydrodynamics Hydrogeology Indicators Land cover Land use Natural Hazards Original Paper Population density Regional analysis Residential areas Residential density Risk assessment River basins River networks Rivers Shelters Socioeconomic factors Socioeconomics Spatial distribution Two dimensional flow Two dimensional models Vulnerability
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Title	Regional flood risk assessment via coupled fuzzy c-means clustering methods: an empirical analysis from China’s Huaihe River Basin
URI	https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-018-3325-9 https://www.proquest.com/docview/2037260176
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