Climate change resilience of vulnerable marine species in northwest Europe

Climate change is impacting marine organisms directly through its influence on suitable habitats. We use an ensemble of five ecological niche models to determine how climate change could affect the distribution of species of conservation importance across the northwest European shelf. The models pro...

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Veröffentlicht in:Marine biology Jg. 172; H. 7; S. 116
Hauptverfasser: Couce, Elena, Pinnegar, John K., Townhill, Bryony L.
Format: Journal Article
Sprache:Englisch
Veröffentlicht: Berlin/Heidelberg Springer Berlin Heidelberg 01.07.2025
Springer Nature B.V
Schlagworte:
Biomedical and Life Sciences
Climate adaptation
Climate change
Climate change adaptation
Climate models
Deep-sea fans
Ecological distribution
Ecological niches
Emissions
Fish
Food chains
Food webs
Freshwater & Marine Ecology
Geographical distribution
Habitat changes
Habitats
Human impact
Life Sciences
Marine & Freshwater Sciences
Marine fishes
Marine molluscs
Marine organisms
Microbiology
Niches
Oceanography
Original Paper
Shellfish
Species
Threatened species
Velasco, Francisco
Vulnerable species
Zoology
North Sea
Warming
Habitat suitability
Marine
Threatened
Bioclimate
Ecological niche modelling
ISSN:0025-3162, 1432-1793
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Zusammenfassung:Climate change is impacting marine organisms directly through its influence on suitable habitats. We use an ensemble of five ecological niche models to determine how climate change could affect the distribution of species of conservation importance across the northwest European shelf. The models project suitable habitat to the end of the century for 19 sensitive and vulnerable fish and invertebrate species under two climate change scenarios. We found an overall increase in suitable habitat for the species, but with localised decreases and increases at certain localities. Spurdog, thornback and undulate rays and native oyster showed the largest increases in suitable habitat this century, whereas decreases were seen in the slender sea pen, ocean quahog, sea fan and fan mussel. The increases were concentrated in the central and northern North Sea and the decreases to the south and west of the UK, as well as in the southern North Sea. Projected changes in habitat for reef-forming species, means that there could be knock-on impacts to ecosystems and food-webs as species’ distributions shift at different rates. The overall results suggest that most of the mobile species could be relatively robust to climate change in the absence of other human disturbance. However, the results should be considered in the context of human disturbance more broadly. Which future carbon emissions pathway society follows (e.g. RCP4.5 or RCP8.5), will also be a significant determinant as to how much change there will be. The model results described in this study are especially useful in determining which species or areas may benefit from active interventions, to remove barriers to dispersal or provide protection, or from enhanced monitoring and surveillance to inform management.
Bibliographie:ObjectType-Article-1
SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
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ISSN:0025-3162
1432-1793
DOI:10.1007/s00227-025-04672-x