Projecting South Asian Summer Precipitation in CMIP3 Models： A Comparison of the Simulations with and without Black Carbon

Considering the importance of black carbon （BC）, this study began by comparing the 20th century simulation of South Asian summer climate in IPCC CMIP3, based on the scenario of models with and without BC. Generally, the multi-model mean of the models that include BC reproduced the observed climate r...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of Meteorological Research Vol. 31; no. 1; pp. 196 - 203
Main Authors: Li, Shuanglin, Mahmood, Rashed
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: Beijing The Chinese Meteorological Society 01.02.2017
Subjects:
Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution
Atmospheric Sciences
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Geophysics and Environmental Physics
Meteorology
South Asian summer monsoon
black carbon
CMIP3 projection simulations
ISSN:2095-6037, 2198-0934
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:Considering the importance of black carbon （BC）, this study began by comparing the 20th century simulation of South Asian summer climate in IPCC CMIP3, based on the scenario of models with and without BC. Generally, the multi-model mean of the models that include BC reproduced the observed climate relatively better than those that did not. Then, the 21st century South Asian summer precipitation was projected based on the IPCC CMIP3 projection simulations. The projected precipitation in the present approach exhibited a considerable difference from the multi- model ensemble mean （MME） of IPCC AR4 projection simulations, and also from the MME of the models that ig- nore the effect of BC. In particular, the present projection exhibited a dry anomaly over the central Indian Peninsula, sandwiched between wet conditions on the southern and northern sides of Pakistan and India, rather than homogen- eous wet conditions as seen in the MME of IPCC AR4. Thus, the spatial pattern of South Asian summer rainfall in the future may be more complicated than previously thought.
Bibliography:11-2277/P
South Asian summer monsoon, black carbon, CMIP3 projection simulations
Considering the importance of black carbon （BC）, this study began by comparing the 20th century simulation of South Asian summer climate in IPCC CMIP3, based on the scenario of models with and without BC. Generally, the multi-model mean of the models that include BC reproduced the observed climate relatively better than those that did not. Then, the 21st century South Asian summer precipitation was projected based on the IPCC CMIP3 projection simulations. The projected precipitation in the present approach exhibited a considerable difference from the multi- model ensemble mean （MME） of IPCC AR4 projection simulations, and also from the MME of the models that ig- nore the effect of BC. In particular, the present projection exhibited a dry anomaly over the central Indian Peninsula, sandwiched between wet conditions on the southern and northern sides of Pakistan and India, rather than homogen- eous wet conditions as seen in the MME of IPCC AR4. Thus, the spatial pattern of South Asian summer rainfall in the future may be more complicated than previously thought.
ISSN:2095-6037
2198-0934
DOI:10.1007/s13351-017-6101-y