Projecting South Asian Summer Precipitation in CMIP3 Models： A Comparison of the Simulations with and without Black Carbon
Considering the importance of black carbon （BC）, this study began by comparing the 20th century simulation of South Asian summer climate in IPCC CMIP3, based on the scenario of models with and without BC. Generally, the multi-model mean of the models that include BC reproduced the observed climate r...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Journal of Meteorological Research Jg. 31; H. 1; S. 196 - 203 |
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The Chinese Meteorological Society
01.02.2017
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| Abstract | Considering the importance of black carbon （BC）, this study began by comparing the 20th century simulation of South Asian summer climate in IPCC CMIP3, based on the scenario of models with and without BC. Generally, the multi-model mean of the models that include BC reproduced the observed climate relatively better than those that did not. Then, the 21st century South Asian summer precipitation was projected based on the IPCC CMIP3 projection simulations. The projected precipitation in the present approach exhibited a considerable difference from the multi- model ensemble mean （MME） of IPCC AR4 projection simulations, and also from the MME of the models that ig- nore the effect of BC. In particular, the present projection exhibited a dry anomaly over the central Indian Peninsula, sandwiched between wet conditions on the southern and northern sides of Pakistan and India, rather than homogen- eous wet conditions as seen in the MME of IPCC AR4. Thus, the spatial pattern of South Asian summer rainfall in the future may be more complicated than previously thought. |
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| AbstractList | Considering the importance of black carbon (BC), this study began by comparing the 20th century simulation of South Asian summer climate in IPCC CMIP3, based on the scenario of models with and without BC. Generally, the multi-model mean of the models that include BC reproduced the observed climate relatively better than those that did not. Then, the 21st century South Asian summer precipitation was projected based on the IPCC CMIP3 projection simulations. The projected precipitation in the present approach exhibited a considerable difference from the multimodel ensemble mean (MME) of IPCC AR4 projection simulations, and also from the MME of the models that ignore the effect of BC. In particular, the present projection exhibited a dry anomaly over the central Indian Peninsula, sandwiched between wet conditions on the southern and northern sides of Pakistan and India, rather than homogeneous wet conditions as seen in the MME of IPCC AR4. Thus, the spatial pattern of South Asian summer rainfall in the future may be more complicated than previously thought. Considering the importance of black carbon （BC）, this study began by comparing the 20th century simulation of South Asian summer climate in IPCC CMIP3, based on the scenario of models with and without BC. Generally, the multi-model mean of the models that include BC reproduced the observed climate relatively better than those that did not. Then, the 21st century South Asian summer precipitation was projected based on the IPCC CMIP3 projection simulations. The projected precipitation in the present approach exhibited a considerable difference from the multi- model ensemble mean （MME） of IPCC AR4 projection simulations, and also from the MME of the models that ig- nore the effect of BC. In particular, the present projection exhibited a dry anomaly over the central Indian Peninsula, sandwiched between wet conditions on the southern and northern sides of Pakistan and India, rather than homogen- eous wet conditions as seen in the MME of IPCC AR4. Thus, the spatial pattern of South Asian summer rainfall in the future may be more complicated than previously thought. |
| Author | Shuanglin LI Rashed MAHMOOD |
| AuthorAffiliation | Department of Atmospheric Science, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria BC, Canada Department of Meteorology, COMSA TS Institute of Information Technology, Islamabad, Pakistan |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Shuanglin surname: Li fullname: Li, Shuanglin email: shuanglin.li@mail.iap.ac.cn organization: Department of Atmospheric Science, China University of Geosciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences – sequence: 2 givenname: Rashed surname: Mahmood fullname: Mahmood, Rashed organization: School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Department of Meteorology, COMSATS Institute of Information Technology |
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| Cites_doi | 10.1038/35055518 10.1126/science.1204994 10.1175/JCLI4035.1 10.1029/2005GL024288 10.1175/BAMS-88-9-1383 10.1002/2016JD024849 10.1175/1525-7541(2003)004<1147:TVGPCP>2.0.CO;2 10.1088/1748-9326/3/4/044001 10.1073/pnas.0500656102 10.1002/joc.1181 10.1175/2007JCLI1777.1 10.1002/joc.3370100202 10.1007/s13351-015-5999-1 10.1126/science.1139601 10.1256/qj.04.176 10.1002/joc.3664 10.1038/climate.2007.22 10.1007/s13351-015-4120-0 10.1007/s00382-012-1347-7 10.1098/rsta.2007.2076 10.1038/nature11097 10.1007/s00382-006-0114-z 10.1098/rsta.2008.0169 10.1029/2009GL040114 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2012.12.039 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00383.1 10.1007/s00704-012-0681-3 10.1126/science.1075159 |
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| Notes | 11-2277/P South Asian summer monsoon, black carbon, CMIP3 projection simulations Considering the importance of black carbon （BC）, this study began by comparing the 20th century simulation of South Asian summer climate in IPCC CMIP3, based on the scenario of models with and without BC. Generally, the multi-model mean of the models that include BC reproduced the observed climate relatively better than those that did not. Then, the 21st century South Asian summer precipitation was projected based on the IPCC CMIP3 projection simulations. The projected precipitation in the present approach exhibited a considerable difference from the multi- model ensemble mean （MME） of IPCC AR4 projection simulations, and also from the MME of the models that ig- nore the effect of BC. In particular, the present projection exhibited a dry anomaly over the central Indian Peninsula, sandwiched between wet conditions on the southern and northern sides of Pakistan and India, rather than homogen- eous wet conditions as seen in the MME of IPCC AR4. Thus, the spatial pattern of South Asian summer rainfall in the future may be more complicated than previously thought. |
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| Snippet | Considering the importance of black carbon （BC）, this study began by comparing the 20th century simulation of South Asian summer climate in IPCC CMIP3, based... Considering the importance of black carbon (BC), this study began by comparing the 20th century simulation of South Asian summer climate in IPCC CMIP3, based... |
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| SubjectTerms | Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution Atmospheric Sciences Earth and Environmental Science Earth Sciences Geophysics and Environmental Physics Meteorology |
| Title | Projecting South Asian Summer Precipitation in CMIP3 Models： A Comparison of the Simulations with and without Black Carbon |
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| Volume | 31 |
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