Threshold and moderating effects of land use on metro ridership in Shenzhen: Implications for TOD planning
Although many studies investigate the association between land use and station ridership, few examine their nonlinear and moderating relationships. Using metro smartcard data in Shenzhen, we develop a gradient boosting decision trees model to estimate the relative importance of land use variables an...
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| Published in: | Journal of transport geography Vol. 89; p. 102878 |
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| Main Authors: | , , , , |
| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier Ltd
01.12.2020
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| Subjects: | |
| ISSN: | 0966-6923, 1873-1236 |
| Online Access: | Get full text |
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| Abstract | Although many studies investigate the association between land use and station ridership, few examine their nonlinear and moderating relationships. Using metro smartcard data in Shenzhen, we develop a gradient boosting decision trees model to estimate the relative importance of land use variables and their threshold and moderating effects on ridership. We found that station betweenness centrality has the largest predictive power, followed by employment density and commercial floor area ratio (FAR). Results suggest that employment density, commercial FAR, and aggregate residential density should be set at 40,000 jobs/km2, 2, and 77,000 persons/km2, respectively, for maximizing ridership. The moderating effects show that population densification is more effective at terminal stations, whereas the policies intensifying nonresidential use work better at middle stations. These findings help planners prioritize land use strategies, identify effective ranges of land use metrics, and propose land use guidelines adaptive to the network position of stations. |
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| AbstractList | Although many studies investigate the association between land use and station ridership, few examine their nonlinear and moderating relationships. Using metro smartcard data in Shenzhen, we develop a gradient boosting decision trees model to estimate the relative importance of land use variables and their threshold and moderating effects on ridership. We found that station betweenness centrality has the largest predictive power, followed by employment density and commercial floor area ratio (FAR). Results suggest that employment density, commercial FAR, and aggregate residential density should be set at 40,000 jobs/km2, 2, and 77,000 persons/km2, respectively, for maximizing ridership. The moderating effects show that population densification is more effective at terminal stations, whereas the policies intensifying nonresidential use work better at middle stations. These findings help planners prioritize land use strategies, identify effective ranges of land use metrics, and propose land use guidelines adaptive to the network position of stations. |
| ArticleNumber | 102878 |
| Author | Yin, Jie Cao, Xinyu Yang, Jiawen Shao, Qifan Zhang, Wenjia |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Qifan surname: Shao fullname: Shao, Qifan email: shaoqf@pku.edu.cn organization: School of Urban Planning & Design, Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School, Shenzhen, Guangdong 518055, China – sequence: 2 givenname: Wenjia surname: Zhang fullname: Zhang, Wenjia email: zhangwj@pkusz.edu.cn organization: School of Urban Planning & Design, Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School, Shenzhen, Guangdong 518055, China – sequence: 3 givenname: Xinyu surname: Cao fullname: Cao, Xinyu email: cao@umn.edu organization: Humphrey School of Public Affairs, University of Minnesota, Twin Cities, United States – sequence: 4 givenname: Jiawen surname: Yang fullname: Yang, Jiawen email: yangjw@pkusz.edu.cn organization: School of Urban Planning & Design, Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School, Shenzhen, Guangdong 518055, China – sequence: 5 givenname: Jie surname: Yin fullname: Yin, Jie email: yinj@pkusz.edu.cn organization: School of Urban Planning & Design, Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School, Shenzhen, Guangdong 518055, China |
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| Keywords | Interaction effects Transit-oriented development (TOD) Gradient boosting decision trees (GBDT) Ridership Land use Nonlinear effects |
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