Does Insurgent Selective Punishment Deter Collaboration? Evidence from the Drone War in Pakistan
Scholars of civil wars have long argued that non-state actors can use selective punishment to reduce collaboration with state adversaries. However, there is little systematic evidence confirming this claim, nor investigation into the mechanisms at play. In this paper, we provide such evidence from t...
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| Published in: | The Journal of conflict resolution Vol. 66; no. 2; pp. 297 - 326 |
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| Main Authors: | , , |
| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | English |
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Los Angeles, CA
SAGE Publications
01.02.2022
SAGE PUBLICATIONS, INC |
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| ISSN: | 0022-0027, 1552-8766 |
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| Abstract | Scholars of civil wars have long argued that non-state actors can use selective punishment to reduce collaboration with state adversaries. However, there is little systematic evidence confirming this claim, nor investigation into the mechanisms at play. In this paper, we provide such evidence from the drone war in Pakistan. Militants in Pakistan’s tribal areas engaged in a brutal counterespionage campaign with the aim of reducing collaboration with the United States. Our analysis combines a novel dataset of collaborator killings with data on drone strike outcomes. We find that strikes killed half as many militant leaders and fighters following collaborator killings and that this suppressive effect likely works by deterring spying in the future. Beyond providing an empirical confirmation of the selective punishment hypothesis, our paper suggests an unacknowledged vulnerability of the drone program to reprisals against local allies and collaborators that limits its effectiveness as a long-term tool of counterterrorism. |
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| AbstractList | Scholars of civil wars have long argued that non-state actors can use selective punishment to reduce collaboration with state adversaries. However, there is little systematic evidence confirming this claim, nor investigation into the mechanisms at play. In this paper, we provide such evidence from the drone war in Pakistan. Militants in Pakistan’s tribal areas engaged in a brutal counterespionage campaign with the aim of reducing collaboration with the United States. Our analysis combines a novel dataset of collaborator killings with data on drone strike outcomes. We find that strikes killed half as many militant leaders and fighters following collaborator killings and that this suppressive effect likely works by deterring spying in the future. Beyond providing an empirical confirmation of the selective punishment hypothesis, our paper suggests an unacknowledged vulnerability of the drone program to reprisals against local allies and collaborators that limits its effectiveness as a long-term tool of counterterrorism. |
| Author | Bauer, Vincent Reese, Michael Ruby, Keven |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Vincent orcidid: 0000-0003-0337-1408 surname: Bauer fullname: Bauer, Vincent email: bauerv@cna.org – sequence: 2 givenname: Michael surname: Reese fullname: Reese, Michael – sequence: 3 givenname: Keven surname: Ruby fullname: Ruby, Keven |
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| Snippet | Scholars of civil wars have long argued that non-state actors can use selective punishment to reduce collaboration with state adversaries. However, there is... |
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| StartPage | 297 |
| SubjectTerms | Campaigns Civil war Collaboration Conflict resolution Counterterrorism Drones Espionage Foreign policy Insurgency Militancy Military air strikes Non-state actors Punishment Strikes War |
| Title | Does Insurgent Selective Punishment Deter Collaboration? Evidence from the Drone War in Pakistan |
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| Volume | 66 |
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