A dynamic human-factor risk model to analyze safety in sociotechnical systems
The performance of sociotechnical elements varies owing to a wide range of endogenous and exogenous influencing factors. These are called uncoupled variability as per Safety-II. The uncoupled variability has drawn rare attention, despite its vital importance in major accidents analysis as per Safety...
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| Vydáno v: | Process safety and environmental protection Ročník 164; s. 479 - 498 |
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| Hlavní autoři: | , , |
| Médium: | Journal Article |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Vydáno: |
Elsevier Ltd
01.08.2022
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| Témata: | |
| ISSN: | 0957-5820, 1744-3598 |
| On-line přístup: | Získat plný text |
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| Abstract | The performance of sociotechnical elements varies owing to a wide range of endogenous and exogenous influencing factors. These are called uncoupled variability as per Safety-II. The uncoupled variability has drawn rare attention, despite its vital importance in major accidents analysis as per Safety-I and Safety-II paradigms. Accordingly, as the first attempt, this study proposes a systematic model to analyze performance variability in human, organizational, and technology-oriented functions caused by various variability shaping factors (VSFs). The model contains three main phases. First, a FRAM (Functional Resonance Analysis Method) - driven Human-Organization-Technology Taxonomy is developed. Subsequently, Dempster - Shafer Evidence theory is employed to elicit knowledge under epistemic uncertainty. The proposed causation model is integrated into Dynamic Bayesian Networks to support decision-making under aleatory uncertainty. Finally, a criticality matrix is developed to evaluate the performance of the system functions to support decision-making. The proposed model is built considering the advanced canonical probabilistic approaches (e.g., Noisy Max and Leaky models) that address the critical challenges of incomplete and imprecise data. The proposed dynamic model would help better understand, analyze, and improve the safety performance of complex sociotechnical systems. |
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| AbstractList | The performance of sociotechnical elements varies owing to a wide range of endogenous and exogenous influencing factors. These are called uncoupled variability as per Safety-II. The uncoupled variability has drawn rare attention, despite its vital importance in major accidents analysis as per Safety-I and Safety-II paradigms. Accordingly, as the first attempt, this study proposes a systematic model to analyze performance variability in human, organizational, and technology-oriented functions caused by various variability shaping factors (VSFs). The model contains three main phases. First, a FRAM (Functional Resonance Analysis Method) - driven Human-Organization-Technology Taxonomy is developed. Subsequently, Dempster - Shafer Evidence theory is employed to elicit knowledge under epistemic uncertainty. The proposed causation model is integrated into Dynamic Bayesian Networks to support decision-making under aleatory uncertainty. Finally, a criticality matrix is developed to evaluate the performance of the system functions to support decision-making. The proposed model is built considering the advanced canonical probabilistic approaches (e.g., Noisy Max and Leaky models) that address the critical challenges of incomplete and imprecise data. The proposed dynamic model would help better understand, analyze, and improve the safety performance of complex sociotechnical systems. |
| Author | Khan, Faisal Zarei, Esmaeil Abbassi, Rouzbeh |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Esmaeil surname: Zarei fullname: Zarei, Esmaeil email: ezarei@mun.ca organization: Centre for Risk, Integrity and Safety Engineering (C-RISE), Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, NL A1B 3×5, Canada – sequence: 2 givenname: Faisal surname: Khan fullname: Khan, Faisal email: fikhan@tamu.edu organization: Centre for Risk, Integrity and Safety Engineering (C-RISE), Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, NL A1B 3×5, Canada – sequence: 3 givenname: Rouzbeh surname: Abbassi fullname: Abbassi, Rouzbeh email: rouzbeh.abbassi@mq.edu.au organization: School of Engineering, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW, Australia |
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| SubjectTerms | Functional resonance analysis Human-organization factors Performance shaping factors Performance variability System safety |
| Title | A dynamic human-factor risk model to analyze safety in sociotechnical systems |
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