Methods used to link crimes using behaviour: A literature review

This paper reviews the crime linkage literature to identify how data were pre-processed for analysis, methods used to predict linkage status/series membership, and methods used to assess the accuracy of linkage predictions. Thirteen databases were searched, with 77 papers meeting the inclusion/exclu...

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Veröffentlicht in:Aggression and violent behavior Jg. 79; S. 102014
Hauptverfasser: Burrell, Amy, Costello, Benjamin, Woodhams, Jessica
Format: Journal Article
Sprache:Englisch
Veröffentlicht: Elsevier Ltd 01.11.2024
Schlagworte:
Behavioural analysis
Comparative case analysis
Crime linkage
Machine learning
Statistical methods
Statistical methods
Behavioural analysis
Comparative case analysis
Crime linkage
Machine learning
ISSN:1359-1789
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Zusammenfassung:This paper reviews the crime linkage literature to identify how data were pre-processed for analysis, methods used to predict linkage status/series membership, and methods used to assess the accuracy of linkage predictions. Thirteen databases were searched, with 77 papers meeting the inclusion/exclusion criteria. Methods used to pre-process data were human judgement, similarity metrics (including machine learning approaches), spatial and temporal measures, and Mokken Scaling. Jaccard's coefficient and other measures of similarity (e.g., temporal proximity, inter-crime distance, similarity vectors) are the most common ways of pre-processing data. Methods for predicting linkage status were varied and included human (expert) judgement, logistic regression, multi-dimensional scaling, discriminant function analysis, principal component analysis and multiple correspondence analysis, Bayesian methods, fuzzy logic, and iterative classification trees. A common method used to assess linkage-prediction accuracy was to calculate the hit rate, although position on a ranked list was also used, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis has emerged as a popular method of assessing accuracy. •Behaviour can be used to link crime series•Research has examined the accuracy of crime linkage using different methods•Pre-processing of data is required before making predictions•Methods for predicting linkage status are varied•Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) is a popular method of assessing accuracy•Accuracy estimation is vital for assessing the validity of crime linkage advice
ISSN:1359-1789
DOI:10.1016/j.avb.2024.102014