Forecasting Popularity of Videos Using Social Media

This paper presents a systematic online prediction method (Social-Forecast) that is capable to accurately forecast the popularity of videos promoted by social media. Social-Forecast explicitly considers the dynamically changing and evolving propagation patterns of videos in social media when making...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:IEEE journal of selected topics in signal processing Vol. 9; no. 2; pp. 330 - 343
Main Authors: Jie Xu, van der Schaar, Mihaela, Jiangchuan Liu, Haitao Li
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: New York IEEE 01.03.2015
The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Subjects:
Accuracy
Context
Forecasting
Forecasting algorithm
Media
online learning
online social networks
popularity prediction
Prediction algorithms
situational and contextual awareness
social media
Social network services
Social networks
Software reviews
Videos
ISSN:1932-4553, 1941-0484
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:This paper presents a systematic online prediction method (Social-Forecast) that is capable to accurately forecast the popularity of videos promoted by social media. Social-Forecast explicitly considers the dynamically changing and evolving propagation patterns of videos in social media when making popularity forecasts, thereby being situation and context aware. Social-Forecast aims to maximize the forecast reward, which is defined as a tradeoff between the popularity prediction accuracy and the timeliness with which a prediction is issued. The forecasting is performed online and requires no training phase or a priori knowledge. We analytically bound the prediction performance loss of Social-Forecast as compared to that obtained by an omniscient oracle and prove that the bound is sublinear in the number of video arrivals, thereby guaranteeing its short-term performance as well as its asymptotic convergence to the optimal performance. In addition, we conduct extensive experiments using real-world data traces collected from the videos shared in RenRen, one of the largest online social networks in China. These experiments show that our proposed method outperforms existing view-based approaches for popularity prediction (which are not context-aware) by more than 30% in terms of prediction rewards.
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ISSN:1932-4553
1941-0484
DOI:10.1109/JSTSP.2014.2370942