Reliable Accuracy Estimates from k-Fold Cross Validation

It is popular to evaluate the performance of classification algorithms by k -fold cross validation. A reliable accuracy estimate will have a relatively small variance, and several studies therefore suggested to repeatedly perform k -fold cross validation. Most of them did not consider the correlatio...

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Vydáno v:IEEE transactions on knowledge and data engineering Ročník 32; číslo 8; s. 1586 - 1594
Hlavní autoři: Wong, Tzu-Tsung, Yeh, Po-Yang
Médium: Journal Article
Jazyk:angličtina
Vydáno: New York IEEE 01.08.2020
The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
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ISSN:1041-4347, 1558-2191
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Shrnutí:It is popular to evaluate the performance of classification algorithms by k -fold cross validation. A reliable accuracy estimate will have a relatively small variance, and several studies therefore suggested to repeatedly perform k -fold cross validation. Most of them did not consider the correlation among the replications of k -fold cross validation, and hence the variance could be underestimated. The purpose of this study is to explore whether k -fold cross validation should be repeatedly performed for obtaining reliable accuracy estimates. The dependency relationships between the predictions of the same instance in two replications of k -fold cross validation are first analyzed for k -nearest neighbors with <inline-formula><tex-math notation="LaTeX">k= 1</tex-math> <mml:math><mml:mrow><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn>1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math><inline-graphic xlink:href="wong-ieq1-2912815.gif"/> </inline-formula>. Then, statistical methods are proposed to test the strength of the dependency level between the accuracy estimates resulting from two replications of k -fold cross validation. The experimental results on 20 data sets show that the accuracy estimates obtained from various replications of k -fold cross validation are generally highly correlated, and the correlation will be higher as the number of folds increases. The k -fold cross validation with a large number of folds and a small number of replications should be adopted for performance evaluation of classification algorithms.
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ISSN:1041-4347
1558-2191
DOI:10.1109/TKDE.2019.2912815