Climatological diagnostics and subseasonal‐to‐seasonal predictions of Madden–Julian Oscillation events
The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of tropical intraseasonal variability, which serves as a primary source of subseasonal‐to‐seasonal (S2S) predictability. Noticeably, MJO is not always a regularly recurring cycle but is characterized by discrete episodes. In this study, consid...
Saved in:
| Published in: | International journal of climatology Vol. 43; no. 5; pp. 2449 - 2464 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors: | , , , |
| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Chichester, UK
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
01.04.2023
Wiley Subscription Services, Inc |
| Subjects: | |
| ISSN: | 0899-8418, 1097-0088 |
| Online Access: | Get full text |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| Abstract | The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of tropical intraseasonal variability, which serves as a primary source of subseasonal‐to‐seasonal (S2S) predictability. Noticeably, MJO is not always a regularly recurring cycle but is characterized by discrete episodes. In this study, considering the quasi‐consecutive actives and eastward propagating features, a standard metric is proposed to identify MJO events based on the real‐time multivariate MJO (RMM) index. The re‐identification of historical MJO events reveals that there were 5.4 MJO events each year since 1981, and the average duration of each event is about 31.5 days. More MJO events tend to occur in the boreal winter and spring, with stronger intensity, longer duration and faster propagating speed than those in the boreal summer. Furthermore, MJO events are more likely to initiate in Phases 2 and 5, with a longer lifetime than those initiating in other phases. The amplitude and propagation characteristics of MJO events are strongly modulated by the dominant modes of sea surface temperature interannual variability with a strong regional dependence. Based on hindcast datasets of six S2S models, the prediction skill for the MJO is evaluated in the perspective of individual events. The longest leading time of the skilful prediction for individual MJO events ranges from 11 to 17 days, far below the traditional recognition. This result could be attributed to the apparent prediction barrier of MJO initiation, that is, a rapid decrease in prediction skill when predictions are carried out before the initiation of MJO events. In addition, the prediction skills of MJO events depends on interannual variabilities, with relatively higher skills under the conditions of the El Niño and Indian Ocean basin warming. These findings may shed light on the complexity and challenges of profoundly understanding and skilfully predicting MJO events.
A standard metric is proposed to re‐identified all the historical MJO events since 1981 and their typical climatological characteristics are thoroughly explored. The prediction skills of six most advanced S2S models for MJO events are far below the traditional recognition, which may attribute to an apparent MJO initiation prediction barrier. |
|---|---|
| AbstractList | The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of tropical intraseasonal variability, which serves as a primary source of subseasonal‐to‐seasonal (S2S) predictability. Noticeably, MJO is not always a regularly recurring cycle but is characterized by discrete episodes. In this study, considering the quasi‐consecutive actives and eastward propagating features, a standard metric is proposed to identify MJO events based on the real‐time multivariate MJO (RMM) index. The re‐identification of historical MJO events reveals that there were 5.4 MJO events each year since 1981, and the average duration of each event is about 31.5 days. More MJO events tend to occur in the boreal winter and spring, with stronger intensity, longer duration and faster propagating speed than those in the boreal summer. Furthermore, MJO events are more likely to initiate in Phases 2 and 5, with a longer lifetime than those initiating in other phases. The amplitude and propagation characteristics of MJO events are strongly modulated by the dominant modes of sea surface temperature interannual variability with a strong regional dependence. Based on hindcast datasets of six S2S models, the prediction skill for the MJO is evaluated in the perspective of individual events. The longest leading time of the skilful prediction for individual MJO events ranges from 11 to 17 days, far below the traditional recognition. This result could be attributed to the apparent prediction barrier of MJO initiation, that is, a rapid decrease in prediction skill when predictions are carried out before the initiation of MJO events. In addition, the prediction skills of MJO events depends on interannual variabilities, with relatively higher skills under the conditions of the El Niño and Indian Ocean basin warming. These findings may shed light on the complexity and challenges of profoundly understanding and skilfully predicting MJO events.
A standard metric is proposed to re‐identified all the historical MJO events since 1981 and their typical climatological characteristics are thoroughly explored. The prediction skills of six most advanced S2S models for MJO events are far below the traditional recognition, which may attribute to an apparent MJO initiation prediction barrier. The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of tropical intraseasonal variability, which serves as a primary source of subseasonal‐to‐seasonal (S2S) predictability. Noticeably, MJO is not always a regularly recurring cycle but is characterized by discrete episodes. In this study, considering the quasi‐consecutive actives and eastward propagating features, a standard metric is proposed to identify MJO events based on the real‐time multivariate MJO (RMM) index. The re‐identification of historical MJO events reveals that there were 5.4 MJO events each year since 1981, and the average duration of each event is about 31.5 days. More MJO events tend to occur in the boreal winter and spring, with stronger intensity, longer duration and faster propagating speed than those in the boreal summer. Furthermore, MJO events are more likely to initiate in Phases 2 and 5, with a longer lifetime than those initiating in other phases. The amplitude and propagation characteristics of MJO events are strongly modulated by the dominant modes of sea surface temperature interannual variability with a strong regional dependence. Based on hindcast datasets of six S2S models, the prediction skill for the MJO is evaluated in the perspective of individual events. The longest leading time of the skilful prediction for individual MJO events ranges from 11 to 17 days, far below the traditional recognition. This result could be attributed to the apparent prediction barrier of MJO initiation, that is, a rapid decrease in prediction skill when predictions are carried out before the initiation of MJO events. In addition, the prediction skills of MJO events depends on interannual variabilities, with relatively higher skills under the conditions of the El Niño and Indian Ocean basin warming. These findings may shed light on the complexity and challenges of profoundly understanding and skilfully predicting MJO events. |
| Author | Wu, Jie Jia, Xiaolong Ren, Hong‐Li Zhang, Peiqun |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Jie orcidid: 0000-0002-7806-6718 surname: Wu fullname: Wu, Jie organization: Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology – sequence: 2 givenname: Hong‐Li surname: Ren fullname: Ren, Hong‐Li email: renhl@cma.gov.cn organization: Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences – sequence: 3 givenname: Xiaolong surname: Jia fullname: Jia, Xiaolong email: jiaxl@cma.gov.cn organization: Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology – sequence: 4 givenname: Peiqun surname: Zhang fullname: Zhang, Peiqun organization: National Climate Center |
| BookMark | eNp1kMtOwzAQRS1UJNqCxCdEYsMmxY7zsJco4lUVdQPraOpH5crYJU5A3fUTkPjDfglJCxsEmxmN5tyrmTtCA-edQuic4AnBOLlaeTEpOEuP0JBgXsQYMzZAQ8w4j1lK2AkahbDCGHNO8iGypTUv0Hjrl0aAjaSBpfOhMSJE4GQU2kVQELwDu9t-NL4rP3O0rpU0ojHehcjr6BGkVG63_Zy21oCL5kEYa6HfR-pNuSacomMNNqiz7z5Gz7c3T-V9PJvfPZTXs1gknKZxRgslNSc6p1pSSrhiLMtS4PlCUEJZkmiWFhIUE1xLnZMMIElA5CIDzvOUjtHFwXdd-9dWhaZa-bbuTg5VUnBacFwUPXV5oETtQ6iVrtZ1l0W9qQiu-iw7laj6LDt08gsVptl_1tRg7F-C-CB4N1Zt_jWupvNyz38BYSuMGA |
| CitedBy_id | crossref_primary_10_1007_s13351_024_3168_0 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_atmosres_2024_107574 crossref_primary_10_5194_esd_16_703_2025 crossref_primary_10_1029_2023GL105705 crossref_primary_10_3390_atmos16070830 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_atmosres_2025_108457 |
| Cites_doi | 10.1175/MWR-D-13-00059.1 10.1175/1520-0477-77.6.1274 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0013.1 10.1175/2010BAMS2816.1 10.1038/s41467-021-23406-3 10.1007/s13351-020-9153-3 10.1002/qj.224 10.1080/16742834.2015.1116217 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2016.06.001 10.1007/s00382-013-1859-9 10.1007/s00382-018-4369-y 10.1029/2020GL091930 10.1029/2019JD031537 10.1007/s00382-018-4492-9 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00026.1 10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0037.1 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00823.1 10.1029/2020MS002368 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00744.1 10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0270.1 10.1002/2016RG000538 10.5194/gmd-14-2977-2021 10.1029/2004RG000158 10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0124.1 10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0326.1 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0545.1 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0102.1 10.1175/BAMS-83-11-1631 10.1126/sciadv.aax0220 10.1029/2019JD030911 10.1007/s13351-014-3087-6 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00074.1 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2017.04.002 10.1029/2018JD028506 10.1007/s13351-018-8078-6 10.1007/s13351-014-3041-7 10.1029/2021JD036011 10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0017.1 10.1175/MWR-D-13-00301.1 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0210.1 10.5194/gmd-12-1573-2019 10.1007/s11802-015-2381-y 10.1007/s00382-018-4423-9 10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132<1917:Aarmmi>2.0.Co;2 10.1093/nsr/nwaa006 |
| ContentType | Journal Article |
| Copyright | 2022 Royal Meteorological Society 2023 Royal Meteorological Society |
| Copyright_xml | – notice: 2022 Royal Meteorological Society – notice: 2023 Royal Meteorological Society |
| DBID | AAYXX CITATION 7TG 7TN F1W H96 KL. L.G |
| DOI | 10.1002/joc.7984 |
| DatabaseName | CrossRef Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts Oceanic Abstracts ASFA: Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries Abstracts Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) 2: Ocean Technology, Policy & Non-Living Resources Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts - Academic Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) Professional |
| DatabaseTitle | CrossRef Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) Professional Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) 2: Ocean Technology, Policy & Non-Living Resources Oceanic Abstracts Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts - Academic ASFA: Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries Abstracts |
| DatabaseTitleList | Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) Professional CrossRef |
| DeliveryMethod | fulltext_linktorsrc |
| Discipline | Meteorology & Climatology |
| EISSN | 1097-0088 |
| EndPage | 2464 |
| ExternalDocumentID | 10_1002_joc_7984 JOC7984 |
| Genre | researchArticle |
| GrantInformation_xml | – fundername: National Key Research and Development Program of China funderid: 2021YFA0718000 – fundername: National Natural Science Foundation of China funderid: 41905067; 42175052; U2242206 – fundername: Innovative Development Special Program of the China Meteorological Administration funderid: CXFZ2021Z010; CXFZ2021Z011 – fundername: Basic Research and Operational Special Project of CAMS funderid: 2021Z007 |
| GroupedDBID | .3N .GA .Y3 05W 0R~ 10A 1L6 1OB 1OC 1ZS 24P 31~ 33P 3SF 3WU 4.4 50Y 50Z 51W 51X 52M 52N 52O 52P 52S 52T 52U 52W 52X 5GY 5VS 66C 702 7PT 8-0 8-1 8-3 8-4 8-5 8UM 930 A03 AAESR AAEVG AAHBH AAHHS AAHQN AAMNL AANHP AANLZ AAONW AASGY AAXRX AAYCA AAZKR ABCQN ABCUV ABEML ABIJN ABJNI ABPVW ACAHQ ACBWZ ACCFJ ACCZN ACGFS ACPOU ACRPL ACSCC ACXBN ACXQS ACYXJ ADBBV ADEOM ADIZJ ADKYN ADMGS ADNMO ADOZA ADXAS ADZMN ADZOD AEEZP AEIGN AEIMD AENEX AEQDE AEUQT AEUYR AFBPY AFFPM AFGKR AFPWT AFRAH AFWVQ AFZJQ AHBTC AITYG AIURR AIWBW AJBDE AJXKR ALAGY ALMA_UNASSIGNED_HOLDINGS ALUQN ALVPJ AMBMR AMYDB ASPBG ATUGU AUFTA AVWKF AZBYB AZFZN AZVAB BAFTC BDRZF BFHJK BHBCM BMNLL BMXJE BNHUX BROTX BRXPI BY8 CS3 D-E D-F DCZOG DDYGU DPXWK DR2 DRFUL DRSTM DU5 EBS EDH EJD F00 F01 F04 FEDTE G-S G.N GNP GODZA H.T H.X HBH HF~ HGLYW HHY HVGLF HZ~ IX1 J0M JPC LATKE LAW LC2 LC3 LEEKS LH4 LITHE LOXES LP6 LP7 LUTES LW6 LYRES M62 MEWTI MK4 MRFUL MRSTM MSFUL MSSTM MXFUL MXSTM N04 N05 N9A NF~ NNB O66 O9- OIG P2P P2W P2X P4D PALCI Q.N Q11 QB0 QRW R.K RIWAO RJQFR ROL RWI RX1 RYL SAMSI SUPJJ TN5 UB1 V2E VOH W8V W99 WBKPD WH7 WIB WIH WIK WOHZO WQJ WRC WUPDE WWD WXSBR WYISQ XG1 XJT XPP XV2 ZZTAW ~02 ~IA ~WT AAMMB AAYXX AEFGJ AEYWJ AGHNM AGQPQ AGXDD AGYGG AIDQK AIDYY BANNL CITATION O8X 7TG 7TN F1W H96 KL. L.G |
| ID | FETCH-LOGICAL-c2934-537edf91f63fd3319e88554a96bc313822f847dae8c9fdf615aa22ac6c5a99643 |
| IEDL.DBID | DRFUL |
| ISICitedReferencesCount | 7 |
| ISICitedReferencesURI | http://www.webofscience.com/api/gateway?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=Summon&SrcAuth=ProQuest&DestLinkType=CitingArticles&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=000910406400001&url=https%3A%2F%2Fcvtisr.summon.serialssolutions.com%2F%23%21%2Fsearch%3Fho%3Df%26include.ft.matches%3Dt%26l%3Dnull%26q%3D |
| ISSN | 0899-8418 |
| IngestDate | Sun Nov 09 08:32:38 EST 2025 Tue Nov 18 19:47:18 EST 2025 Sat Nov 29 02:36:58 EST 2025 Wed Jan 22 16:23:07 EST 2025 |
| IsPeerReviewed | true |
| IsScholarly | true |
| Issue | 5 |
| Language | English |
| LinkModel | DirectLink |
| MergedId | FETCHMERGED-LOGICAL-c2934-537edf91f63fd3319e88554a96bc313822f847dae8c9fdf615aa22ac6c5a99643 |
| Notes | ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 14 |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-7806-6718 |
| PQID | 2793790774 |
| PQPubID | 996368 |
| PageCount | 16 |
| ParticipantIDs | proquest_journals_2793790774 crossref_primary_10_1002_joc_7984 crossref_citationtrail_10_1002_joc_7984 wiley_primary_10_1002_joc_7984_JOC7984 |
| PublicationCentury | 2000 |
| PublicationDate | April 2023 2023-04-00 20230401 |
| PublicationDateYYYYMMDD | 2023-04-01 |
| PublicationDate_xml | – month: 04 year: 2023 text: April 2023 |
| PublicationDecade | 2020 |
| PublicationPlace | Chichester, UK |
| PublicationPlace_xml | – name: Chichester, UK – name: Bognor Regis |
| PublicationTitle | International journal of climatology |
| PublicationYear | 2023 |
| Publisher | John Wiley & Sons, Ltd Wiley Subscription Services, Inc |
| Publisher_xml | – name: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd – name: Wiley Subscription Services, Inc |
| References | 2015; 14 2021; 48 2013; 26 2019; 5 2019; 52 2019; 32 2021; 103 2019; 12 2018; 123 2013; 41 2014; 27 2016; 75 2005; 43 2013; 141 2020; 34 2020; 101 2020; 125 2014; 28 2020; 32 2019; 100 2018; 48 1996; 77 2021; 14 2020; 7 2021; 13 2004; 132 2015; 28 2021; 12 2002; 83 2017; 55 2017; 98 2013; 94 2017; 78 2008; 134 2010; 91 2018; 32 2014; 142 2018; 31 2016; 9 2022; 125 e_1_2_8_28_1 e_1_2_8_29_1 e_1_2_8_24_1 e_1_2_8_47_1 e_1_2_8_25_1 e_1_2_8_46_1 e_1_2_8_26_1 e_1_2_8_27_1 e_1_2_8_48_1 e_1_2_8_3_1 e_1_2_8_2_1 e_1_2_8_5_1 e_1_2_8_4_1 e_1_2_8_7_1 e_1_2_8_6_1 e_1_2_8_9_1 e_1_2_8_8_1 e_1_2_8_20_1 e_1_2_8_43_1 e_1_2_8_21_1 e_1_2_8_42_1 e_1_2_8_22_1 e_1_2_8_45_1 e_1_2_8_23_1 e_1_2_8_44_1 e_1_2_8_41_1 e_1_2_8_40_1 e_1_2_8_17_1 e_1_2_8_18_1 e_1_2_8_39_1 e_1_2_8_19_1 e_1_2_8_13_1 e_1_2_8_36_1 e_1_2_8_14_1 e_1_2_8_35_1 e_1_2_8_15_1 e_1_2_8_38_1 e_1_2_8_16_1 e_1_2_8_37_1 e_1_2_8_32_1 e_1_2_8_10_1 e_1_2_8_31_1 e_1_2_8_11_1 e_1_2_8_34_1 e_1_2_8_12_1 e_1_2_8_33_1 e_1_2_8_30_1 |
| References_xml | – volume: 91 start-page: 1247 year: 2010 end-page: 1258 article-title: A framework for assessing operational Madden–Julian Oscillation forecasts: a CLIVAR MJO working group project publication-title: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society – volume: 14 start-page: 1 issue: 1 year: 2015 end-page: 8 article-title: The influence of El Niño on MJO over the equatorial Pacific publication-title: Journal of Ocean University of China – volume: 31 start-page: 9425 year: 2018 end-page: 9443 article-title: Prediction of the Madden–Julian Oscillation: a review publication-title: Journal of Climate – volume: 142 start-page: 1697 issue: 5 year: 2014 end-page: 1715 article-title: A comparison of OLR and circulation‐based indices for tracking the MJO publication-title: Monthly Weather Review – volume: 31 start-page: 4075 year: 2018 end-page: 4094 article-title: MJO prediction skill of the subseasonal‐to‐seasonal prediction models publication-title: Journal of Climate – volume: 134 start-page: 439 year: 2008 end-page: 453 article-title: Primary and successive events in the Madden–Julian Oscillation publication-title: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society – volume: 43 year: 2005 article-title: Madden–Julian Oscillation publication-title: Reviews of Geophysics – volume: 14 start-page: 2977 year: 2021 end-page: 3006 article-title: BCC‐CSM2‐HR: a high‐resolution version of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model publication-title: Geoscientific Model Development – volume: 13 year: 2021 article-title: Development of coupled data assimilation with the BCC climate system model: highlighting the role of sea‐ice assimilation for global analysis publication-title: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems – volume: 101 start-page: E608 year: 2020 end-page: E625 article-title: Windows of opportunity for skillful forecasts subseasonal to seasonal and beyond publication-title: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society – volume: 125 year: 2022 article-title: MJO phase swings modulate the recurring latitudinal shifts of the 2020 extreme summer‐monsoon rainfall around Yangtse publication-title: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres – volume: 12 year: 2021 article-title: Deep learning for bias correction of MJO prediction publication-title: Nature Communications – volume: 48 issue: 6 year: 2021 article-title: Improving the MJO forecast of S2S operation models by correcting their biases in linear dynamics publication-title: Geophysical Research Letters – volume: 32 start-page: 7483 issue: 21 year: 2020 end-page: 7506 article-title: A precipitation‐based index for tropical intraseasonal oscillations publication-title: Journal of Climate – volume: 32 start-page: 7483 issue: 21 year: 2019 end-page: 7506 article-title: Modulation of ENSO on fast and slow MJO modes during boreal winter publication-title: Journal of Climate – volume: 75 start-page: 78 year: 2016 end-page: 90 article-title: MJO prediction skill, predictability, and teleconnection impacts in the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model publication-title: Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans – volume: 101 start-page: E869 year: 2020 end-page: E896 article-title: Current and emerging developments in subseasonal to decadal prediction publication-title: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society – volume: 12 start-page: 1573 year: 2019 end-page: 1600 article-title: The Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC‐CSM): the main progress from CMIP5 to CMIP6 publication-title: Geoscientific Model Development – volume: 34 start-page: 20 issue: 1 year: 2020 end-page: 42 article-title: Madden–Julian Oscillation: its discovery, dynamics, and impact on East Asia publication-title: Journal of Meteorological Research – volume: 27 start-page: 2185 year: 2014 end-page: 2208 article-title: The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 publication-title: Journal of Climate – volume: 132 start-page: 1917 year: 2004 end-page: 1932 article-title: An all‐season real‐time multivariate MJO index: development of an index for monitoring and prediction publication-title: Monthly Weather Review – volume: 28 start-page: 34 year: 2014 end-page: 56 article-title: An overview of BCC climate system model development and application for climate change studies publication-title: Journal of Meteorological Research – volume: 125 year: 2020 article-title: Fifty years of research on the Madden–Julian Oscillation: recent progress, challenges, and perspectives publication-title: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres – volume: 83 start-page: 1631 year: 2002 end-page: 1644 article-title: NCEP‐DOE AMIP‐II reanalysis (R‐2) publication-title: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society – volume: 28 start-page: 1 issue: 1 year: 2014 end-page: 33 article-title: Recent advance in understanding the dynamics of the Madden–Julian Oscillation publication-title: Journal of Meteorological Research – volume: 125 year: 2020 article-title: Effects of moisture initialization on MJO and its teleconnection prediction in BCC subseasonal coupled model publication-title: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres – volume: 7 start-page: 486 issue: 3 year: 2020 end-page: 487 article-title: Progress in climate modeling of precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau publication-title: National Science Review. – volume: 100 start-page: 2043 year: 2019 end-page: 2060 article-title: The subseasonal experiment (SubX). A multimodel subseasonal prediction experiment publication-title: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society – volume: 5 year: 2019 article-title: Diversity of the Madden–Julian Oscillation. Science publication-title: Advances – volume: 103 start-page: E463 year: 2021 end-page: E484 article-title: S2S prediction in GFDL SPEAR: MJO diversity and teleconnections publication-title: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society – volume: 9 start-page: 60 issue: 1 year: 2016 end-page: 65 article-title: MJO ensemble prediction in BCC‐CSM1.1(m) using different initialization schemes publication-title: Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters – volume: 77 start-page: 1275 year: 1996 end-page: 1277 article-title: Description of a complete (interpolated) outgoing longwave radiation dataset publication-title: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society – volume: 26 start-page: 1130 year: 2013 end-page: 1151 article-title: MJO initiation in the real‐time multivariate MJO index publication-title: Journal of Climate – volume: 141 start-page: 4429 year: 2013 end-page: 4449 article-title: Improving intraseasonal prediction with a new ensemble generation strategy publication-title: Monthly Weather Review – volume: 28 start-page: 6039 year: 2015 end-page: 6053 article-title: Some climatological aspects of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) publication-title: Journal of Climate – volume: 32 start-page: 923 issue: 6 year: 2018 end-page: 936 article-title: Identification standard for ENSO events and its application to climate monitoring and prediction in China publication-title: Journal of Meteorological Research – volume: 52 start-page: 6015 year: 2019 end-page: 6031 article-title: Prediction and predictability of tropical intraseasonal convection: seasonal dependence and the Maritime Continent prediction barrier publication-title: Climate Dynamics – volume: 94 start-page: 1849 year: 2013 end-page: 1870 article-title: Madden–Julian Oscillation—bridging weather and climate publication-title: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society – volume: 48 issue: 6 year: 2018 article-title: Propagation characteristics of BSISO indices publication-title: Geophysical Research Letters – volume: 28 start-page: 5351 year: 2015 end-page: 5364 article-title: The 3–4‐week MJO prediction skill in a GFDL coupled model publication-title: Journal of Climate – volume: 55 start-page: 902 issue: 4 year: 2017 end-page: 937 article-title: Review of tropical‐extratropical telconnections on intraseasonal time scale publication-title: Reviews of Geophysics – volume: 98 start-page: 163 year: 2017 end-page: 175 article-title: The subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction project database publication-title: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society – volume: 41 start-page: 1067 issue: 3–4 year: 2013 end-page: 1081 article-title: Multi‐model MJO forecasting during DYNAMO/CINDY period publication-title: Climate Dynamics – volume: 123 start-page: 6732 year: 2018 end-page: 6745 article-title: Toward the improvement of subseasonal prediction in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Ensemble Forecast System publication-title: Journal of Geophysical Research‐Atmospheres – volume: 78 start-page: 106 year: 2017 end-page: 120 article-title: Factors controlling the seasonality of the Madden–Julian Oscillation publication-title: Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans – volume: 52 start-page: 4923 year: 2019 end-page: 4936 article-title: Evaluating the MJO prediction skill from different configurations of NCEP GEFS extended forecast publication-title: Climate Dynamics – volume: 52 start-page: 3823 year: 2019 end-page: 3843 article-title: Validity of parameter optimization in improving MJO simulation and prediction using the sub‐seasonal to seasonal forecast model of Beijing Climate Center publication-title: Climate Dynamics – ident: e_1_2_8_6_1 doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-13-00059.1 – ident: e_1_2_8_16_1 doi: 10.1175/1520-0477-77.6.1274 – ident: e_1_2_8_32_1 doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0013.1 – ident: e_1_2_8_5_1 doi: 10.1175/2010BAMS2816.1 – ident: e_1_2_8_10_1 doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-23406-3 – ident: e_1_2_8_14_1 doi: 10.1007/s13351-020-9153-3 – ident: e_1_2_8_22_1 doi: 10.1002/qj.224 – ident: e_1_2_8_26_1 doi: 10.1080/16742834.2015.1116217 – ident: e_1_2_8_39_1 doi: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2016.06.001 – ident: e_1_2_8_4_1 doi: 10.1007/s00382-013-1859-9 – ident: e_1_2_8_18_1 doi: 10.1007/s00382-018-4369-y – ident: e_1_2_8_33_1 doi: 10.1029/2020GL091930 – ident: e_1_2_8_38_1 doi: 10.1029/2020GL091930 – ident: e_1_2_8_40_1 doi: 10.1029/2019JD031537 – ident: e_1_2_8_34_1 doi: 10.1007/s00382-018-4492-9 – ident: e_1_2_8_47_1 doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00026.1 – ident: e_1_2_8_23_1 doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0037.1 – ident: e_1_2_8_27_1 doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00823.1 – ident: e_1_2_8_19_1 doi: 10.1029/2020MS002368 – ident: e_1_2_8_12_1 doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00744.1 – ident: e_1_2_8_24_1 doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0270.1 – ident: e_1_2_8_28_1 doi: 10.1002/2016RG000538 – ident: e_1_2_8_43_1 doi: 10.5194/gmd-14-2977-2021 – ident: e_1_2_8_46_1 doi: 10.1029/2004RG000158 – ident: e_1_2_8_44_1 doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0124.1 – ident: e_1_2_8_21_1 doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0326.1 – ident: e_1_2_8_17_1 doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0545.1 – ident: e_1_2_8_45_1 doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0102.1 – ident: e_1_2_8_8_1 doi: 10.1175/BAMS-83-11-1631 – ident: e_1_2_8_36_1 doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0013.1 – ident: e_1_2_8_31_1 doi: 10.1126/sciadv.aax0220 – ident: e_1_2_8_7_1 doi: 10.1029/2019JD030911 – ident: e_1_2_8_13_1 doi: 10.1007/s13351-014-3087-6 – ident: e_1_2_8_29_1 doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00074.1 – ident: e_1_2_8_20_1 doi: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2017.04.002 – ident: e_1_2_8_48_1 doi: 10.1029/2018JD028506 – ident: e_1_2_8_25_1 doi: 10.1007/s13351-018-8078-6 – ident: e_1_2_8_42_1 doi: 10.1007/s13351-014-3041-7 – ident: e_1_2_8_35_1 doi: 10.1029/2021JD036011 – ident: e_1_2_8_30_1 doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0017.1 – ident: e_1_2_8_9_1 doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-13-00301.1 – ident: e_1_2_8_11_1 doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0210.1 – ident: e_1_2_8_41_1 doi: 10.5194/gmd-12-1573-2019 – ident: e_1_2_8_3_1 doi: 10.1007/s11802-015-2381-y – ident: e_1_2_8_15_1 doi: 10.1007/s00382-018-4423-9 – ident: e_1_2_8_37_1 doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132<1917:Aarmmi>2.0.Co;2 – ident: e_1_2_8_2_1 doi: 10.1093/nsr/nwaa006 |
| SSID | ssj0009916 |
| Score | 2.4353907 |
| Snippet | The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of tropical intraseasonal variability, which serves as a primary source of subseasonal‐to‐seasonal... |
| SourceID | proquest crossref wiley |
| SourceType | Aggregation Database Enrichment Source Index Database Publisher |
| StartPage | 2449 |
| SubjectTerms | climatological characteristics El Nino El Nino phenomena Interannual variability Madden-Julian oscillation Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) MJO initiation Ocean basins Ocean warming prediction barrier Predictions Sea surface Sea surface temperature Seasonal variations Skills subseasonal‐to‐seasonal (S2S) prediction Surface temperature Variability |
| Title | Climatological diagnostics and subseasonal‐to‐seasonal predictions of Madden–Julian Oscillation events |
| URI | https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002%2Fjoc.7984 https://www.proquest.com/docview/2793790774 |
| Volume | 43 |
| WOSCitedRecordID | wos000910406400001&url=https%3A%2F%2Fcvtisr.summon.serialssolutions.com%2F%23%21%2Fsearch%3Fho%3Df%26include.ft.matches%3Dt%26l%3Dnull%26q%3D |
| hasFullText | 1 |
| inHoldings | 1 |
| isFullTextHit | |
| isPrint | |
| journalDatabaseRights | – providerCode: PRVWIB databaseName: Wiley Online Library - Journals customDbUrl: eissn: 1097-0088 dateEnd: 99991231 omitProxy: false ssIdentifier: ssj0009916 issn: 0899-8418 databaseCode: DRFUL dateStart: 19960101 isFulltext: true titleUrlDefault: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com providerName: Wiley-Blackwell |
| link | http://cvtisr.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/link/0/eLvHCXMwpV3dS8MwED90-uCL3-L8IoLMp2qXtUvzKNMh4hfixLeSpg1MRjvW6fP-BMH_0L_Eu7R1CgqCLy0pSQm5u9wvyeV3AAdt5YvENa4TCVyieFwJJ6JtDiV1ICRXzdjmWHq4FNfXweOjvC2jKukuTMEP8bnhRpZh52sycBXlx1PS0KdMHwkZeLMwx1Ft_RrMnd51e5dTyl1pE5_SuZYTeM2gop51-XHV9rszmiLMrzjVOpru0n-6uAyLJbxkJ4U-rMBMkq5C_QqRcTayG-iswTqDPsJUW1qDwbRE4mJxEXpH5M1MpTHLcWJJlMXr75PXcYaPqsyGIzrlsYrLMsOu7CT2PnmjO9cqZTfoXQdFqB2zPFH5OvS6Z_edc6fMwOBohAGe47dEEhvZNO2WiVtorUlAYW1KtiPdIvZCbtC7xSoJtDSxQXSkFOdKt7WvJDF9bUAtzdJkE5gxvqsQXQXYFS_yhYwQLKoI_-Th56aow2ElilCX9OSUJWMQFsTKPMTRDGk067D_WXNYUHL8UGenkmZYGmUecuIClC4C3jo0rNx-bR9e3HTovfXXituwQInoi5ieHaiNR8_JLszrl3E_H-2VqvkBo67tSA |
| linkProvider | Wiley-Blackwell |
| linkToHtml | http://cvtisr.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/link/0/eLvHCXMwpV1LS8NAEB58gV58i9WqK0g9RdM06WbxJNXio60iVbyFzSYLSkmkrZ79CYL_0F_izCZpFRQELwkbNmHZmdn5Mjv7DcBeXXo8trVthRx_UVxHciukMIcUyufCkdXI1Fi6a_FOx7-_F9cTcFSchcn4IUYBN7IMs16TgVNA-nDMGvqYqgMufHcSpl3UIlTv6ZOb5m1rzLkrTOVT2tiyfLfqF9yztnNYvPvdG40h5legajxNc-FfY1yE-RxgsuNMI5ZgIk6WodRGbJz2TQidVVij94BA1bRWoDdukcBYlCXfEX0zk0nEBri0xNIg9o_Xt2GKl6LNnvq0z2NUl6Watc0y9vH6TqeuZcKu0L_2smQ7ZpiiBqtw2zztNs6svAaDpRAIuJZX43GkRVXXazqqob3GPiW2SVEPVY34Cx2N_i2Ssa-EjjTiIykdR6q68qQgrq81mErSJF4HprVnS8RXPg7FDT0uQoSLMsQvufi4ykuwX8giUDlBOdXJ6AUZtbIT4GwGNJsl2B31fMpIOX7oUy7EGeRmOQgcYgMUNkLeElSM4H59P7i4atB9468dd2D2rNtuBa3zzuUmzFFZ-izDpwxTw_5zvAUz6mX4MOhv53r6Ccb88Tg |
| linkToPdf | http://cvtisr.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/link/0/eLvHCXMwpV3NitswEB7SpJRe2t3-0GyzuyqU9OTGcezIoqcl2bDt5o_SlNyMLEuQEuyQZHvOIxT6hnmSzsh20kIXCr3YyEhGaDSaT6PRNwBvuzLg2jWuE3Pcovie5E5Mbg4pVMiFJ9uJzbH0dcjH43A-F9MKfCjvwuT8EAeHG2mGXa9JwfUqMa0ja-i3TL3nIvQfQM2nHDJVqPU_D2bDI-eusJlP6WDLCf12WHLPul6rbPunNTpCzN-BqrU0g6f_1ccTeFIATHaVz4hTqOj0GdRHiI2ztXWhsybrLRcIVG3pOSyPJRIYS_LgO6JvZjJN2AaXFi0tYt_vfmwzfJRltlrTOY-duiwzbGSXsf3uJ926limboH1d5sF2zDJFbV7AbHD9pXfjFDkYHIVAwHeCDteJEW3T7Zikg_qqQwpsk6Ibqw7xF3oG7VsidaiESQziIyk9T6quCqQgrq-XUE2zVL8CZkzgSsRXIXbFjwMuYoSLMsY_-fi5zevwrpRFpAqCcsqTsYxyamUvwtGMaDTr8OZQc5WTcvylTqMUZ1So5SbyiA1QuAh569C0gru3ffRp0qP32b9WvIRH0_4gGn4c376Gx5SVPg_waUB1u77T5_BQfd8uNuuLYpr-Amql8LM |
| openUrl | ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info%3Aofi%2Fenc%3AUTF-8&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fsummon.serialssolutions.com&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Climatological+diagnostics+and+subseasonal%E2%80%90to%E2%80%90seasonal+predictions+of+Madden%E2%80%93Julian+Oscillation+events&rft.jtitle=International+journal+of+climatology&rft.au=Wu%2C+Jie&rft.au=Ren%2C+Hong%E2%80%90Li&rft.au=Jia%2C+Xiaolong&rft.au=Zhang%2C+Peiqun&rft.date=2023-04-01&rft.pub=John+Wiley+%26+Sons%2C+Ltd&rft.issn=0899-8418&rft.eissn=1097-0088&rft.volume=43&rft.issue=5&rft.spage=2449&rft.epage=2464&rft_id=info:doi/10.1002%2Fjoc.7984&rft.externalDBID=10.1002%252Fjoc.7984&rft.externalDocID=JOC7984 |
| thumbnail_l | http://covers-cdn.summon.serialssolutions.com/index.aspx?isbn=/lc.gif&issn=0899-8418&client=summon |
| thumbnail_m | http://covers-cdn.summon.serialssolutions.com/index.aspx?isbn=/mc.gif&issn=0899-8418&client=summon |
| thumbnail_s | http://covers-cdn.summon.serialssolutions.com/index.aspx?isbn=/sc.gif&issn=0899-8418&client=summon |