Multi-decadal aspen dynamics show recruitment bottleneck across complex mountain community
Changes in forest structure and shifts in tree species composition have occurred globally due to climate change and altered disturbance regimes. With climate trending toward warmer and drier conditions, these altered forest communities may reorganize in diverse and unpredictable ways. This is especi...
Uloženo v:
| Vydáno v: | Forest ecology and management Ročník 572; s. 122326 |
|---|---|
| Hlavní autoři: | , , , , , , |
| Médium: | Journal Article |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Vydáno: |
Elsevier B.V
15.11.2024
|
| Témata: | |
| ISSN: | 0378-1127 |
| On-line přístup: | Získat plný text |
| Tagy: |
Přidat tag
Žádné tagy, Buďte první, kdo vytvoří štítek k tomuto záznamu!
|
| Abstract | Changes in forest structure and shifts in tree species composition have occurred globally due to climate change and altered disturbance regimes. With climate trending toward warmer and drier conditions, these altered forest communities may reorganize in diverse and unpredictable ways. This is especially true in mountain environments where a range of vegetation types and abiotic conditions coexist. In this study, we used long-term permanent plot data from a site spanning broad environmental gradients to assess regeneration and mortality patterns in populations of aspen (Populus tremuloides). The study site, located on the San Francisco Peaks, Arizona, USA, is near the hot, dry edge of the species’ range and has experienced compounding pressure from extreme drought, chronic ungulate browsing, and wildfire in the past two decades. Over a 20-year study period, spanning one of the most prolonged drought periods in at least 1200 years, aspen overstory mortality averaged 42 % and was most common in smaller, younger trees and at lower elevations. Aspen regeneration density increased 13 % and was found in a greater proportion of study sites. However, we observed a noticeable lack of stems in the tallest regeneration size class (>200 cm) and the smaller tree size class (2.5–15 cm in diameter), potentially indicating a demographic bottleneck whereby few trees are recruiting into the overstory. Likewise, prolific aspen suckering occurred after a 2001 wildfire, although regeneration density eventually decreased to pre-fire levels, with <1 % of individuals reaching heights >200 cm. Aspen regeneration densities showed the greatest increases in cool, wet sites and beneath open forest canopies. Disturbances function as catalysts for aspen regeneration, but persistence of aspen stands depends on recruitment of stems into overstory size classes, a process that is limited, particularly on lower and more exposed sites.
•Multi-decade evidence of aspen changes across mountainous environment.•Significant aspen mortality especially in young and lower-elevation trees.•Despite increased aspen regeneration, notable lack of recruitment into mature size classes.•Aspen regeneration showed the greatest increases in cool, wet sites and beneath open forest canopies. |
|---|---|
| AbstractList | Changes in forest structure and shifts in tree species composition have occurred globally due to climate change and altered disturbance regimes. With climate trending toward warmer and drier conditions, these altered forest communities may reorganize in diverse and unpredictable ways. This is especially true in mountain environments where a range of vegetation types and abiotic conditions coexist. In this study, we used long-term permanent plot data from a site spanning broad environmental gradients to assess regeneration and mortality patterns in populations of aspen (Populus tremuloides). The study site, located on the San Francisco Peaks, Arizona, USA, is near the hot, dry edge of the species’ range and has experienced compounding pressure from extreme drought, chronic ungulate browsing, and wildfire in the past two decades. Over a 20-year study period, spanning one of the most prolonged drought periods in at least 1200 years, aspen overstory mortality averaged 42 % and was most common in smaller, younger trees and at lower elevations. Aspen regeneration density increased 13 % and was found in a greater proportion of study sites. However, we observed a noticeable lack of stems in the tallest regeneration size class (>200 cm) and the smaller tree size class (2.5–15 cm in diameter), potentially indicating a demographic bottleneck whereby few trees are recruiting into the overstory. Likewise, prolific aspen suckering occurred after a 2001 wildfire, although regeneration density eventually decreased to pre-fire levels, with <1 % of individuals reaching heights >200 cm. Aspen regeneration densities showed the greatest increases in cool, wet sites and beneath open forest canopies. Disturbances function as catalysts for aspen regeneration, but persistence of aspen stands depends on recruitment of stems into overstory size classes, a process that is limited, particularly on lower and more exposed sites.
•Multi-decade evidence of aspen changes across mountainous environment.•Significant aspen mortality especially in young and lower-elevation trees.•Despite increased aspen regeneration, notable lack of recruitment into mature size classes.•Aspen regeneration showed the greatest increases in cool, wet sites and beneath open forest canopies. Changes in forest structure and shifts in tree species composition have occurred globally due to climate change and altered disturbance regimes. With climate trending toward warmer and drier conditions, these altered forest communities may reorganize in diverse and unpredictable ways. This is especially true in mountain environments where a range of vegetation types and abiotic conditions coexist. In this study, we used long-term permanent plot data from a site spanning broad environmental gradients to assess regeneration and mortality patterns in populations of aspen (Populus tremuloides). The study site, located on the San Francisco Peaks, Arizona, USA, is near the hot, dry edge of the species’ range and has experienced compounding pressure from extreme drought, chronic ungulate browsing, and wildfire in the past two decades. Over a 20-year study period, spanning one of the most prolonged drought periods in at least 1200 years, aspen overstory mortality averaged 42 % and was most common in smaller, younger trees and at lower elevations. Aspen regeneration density increased 13 % and was found in a greater proportion of study sites. However, we observed a noticeable lack of stems in the tallest regeneration size class (>200 cm) and the smaller tree size class (2.5–15 cm in diameter), potentially indicating a demographic bottleneck whereby few trees are recruiting into the overstory. Likewise, prolific aspen suckering occurred after a 2001 wildfire, although regeneration density eventually decreased to pre-fire levels, with <1 % of individuals reaching heights >200 cm. Aspen regeneration densities showed the greatest increases in cool, wet sites and beneath open forest canopies. Disturbances function as catalysts for aspen regeneration, but persistence of aspen stands depends on recruitment of stems into overstory size classes, a process that is limited, particularly on lower and more exposed sites. |
| ArticleNumber | 122326 |
| Author | Huffman, David W. Crouch, Connor D. Waring, Kristen M. Moore, Margaret M. Rodman, Kyle C. Fulé, Peter Z. Stoddard, Michael T. |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Michael T. surname: Stoddard fullname: Stoddard, Michael T. email: mike.stoddard@nau.edu organization: Ecological Restoration Institute, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA – sequence: 2 givenname: Kyle C. surname: Rodman fullname: Rodman, Kyle C. organization: Ecological Restoration Institute, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA – sequence: 3 givenname: Connor D. surname: Crouch fullname: Crouch, Connor D. organization: USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station, Columbia, MO 65211, USA – sequence: 4 givenname: David W. surname: Huffman fullname: Huffman, David W. organization: Ecological Restoration Institute, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA – sequence: 5 givenname: Peter Z. surname: Fulé fullname: Fulé, Peter Z. organization: School of Forestry, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA – sequence: 6 givenname: Kristen M. surname: Waring fullname: Waring, Kristen M. organization: School of Forestry, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA – sequence: 7 givenname: Margaret M. surname: Moore fullname: Moore, Margaret M. organization: School of Forestry, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA |
| BookMark | eNp9kD1PwzAQhj0UibbwDxg8sqTYjpM4CxKq-JJALLCwWI59Fi6JHWIH6L8nJcxMJ53uffTes0ILHzwgdEbJhhJaXuw2Ngygw4YRxjeUsZyVC7QkeSUySll1jFYx7gghRcHFEr0-jm1ymQGtjGqxij14bPZedU5HHN_CF55ow-hSBz7hJqTUggf9jpUeQoxYh65v4Rt3YfRJOX9YdKN3aX-CjqxqI5z-zTV6ubl-3t5lD0-399urh0wzIVKmhVbQMKuLUjfG8qYqOa-rhjFham44qynVleCFndob1ai6LvLSEgqaWc5MvkbnM7cfwscIMcnORQ1tqzyEMcqcFrmYkJOKNeLz6W_3AazsB9epYS8pkQd9cidnffKgT876ptjlHIPpjU8Hg4zagddg3HSbpAnuf8APAbKAtw |
| Cites_doi | 10.1016/j.foreco.2019.03.026 10.1016/j.foreco.2018.04.013 10.1126/sciadv.abo7434 10.1111/geb.12302 10.1139/cjfr-2022-0054 10.1139/cjfr-2019-0222 10.1111/jbi.14302 10.1126/science.1128834 10.1002/ecy.3436 10.1890/ES14-00354.1 10.1016/j.foreco.2019.117861 10.2307/3795561 10.1186/1471-2105-12-77 10.1016/j.foreco.2010.09.048 10.1002/ecs2.3467 10.1111/nph.13477 10.1890/06-1715.1 10.1890/0012-9658(2002)083[1701:IAFAAE]2.0.CO;2 10.1093/biosci/biaa061 10.1186/s42408-023-00204-4 10.1071/WF04060 10.1111/j.1365-2664.2005.01077.x 10.1002/ecs2.3345 10.1007/s11258-011-9920-4 10.1126/science.aaz9600 10.3389/fevo.2019.00239 10.1016/j.foreco.2012.12.033 10.1002/ecy.1897 10.32614/RJ-2017-066 10.1007/s00442-014-2951-5 10.1007/s10530-009-9626-x 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.121692 10.1111/j.1365-2745.2008.01456.x 10.1016/j.foreco.2019.02.003 10.1111/j.1654-1103.2002.tb02087.x 10.1016/j.foreco.2013.01.004 10.1111/mec.14505 10.1007/s10021-005-0100-z 10.1111/gcb.12146 10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108741 10.1002/fee.1311 10.1126/science.aaz9463 10.1016/j.foreco.2014.08.026 10.1139/X07-079 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00796.x 10.3389/fevo.2021.719141 10.1073/pnas.2002314117 10.1139/x01-001 10.1038/s41467-021-26838-z 10.21105/joss.03139 10.1002/eap.1746 10.1111/geb.12109 10.1007/s10530-021-02545-0 10.1098/rstb.2019.0105 10.1139/cjfr-2015-0128 10.2307/1931725 10.1111/geb.13582 10.1016/j.foreco.2015.11.020 10.1002/ecs2.2854 10.1139/x03-053 10.1073/pnas.2208120120 10.1002/ecs2.1471 10.1016/j.foreco.2009.06.005 10.4996/fireecology.0703088 10.1016/j.foreco.2014.10.021 10.1038/nclimate3303 10.1016/j.foreco.2016.04.051 10.1002/ecs2.1410 10.1073/pnas.1500796112 10.1016/j.foreco.2012.07.004 10.1016/j.foreco.2012.02.009 10.1111/1365-2745.13999 10.1139/cjfr-2014-0186 10.1186/s42408-018-0011-y 10.1002/ecy.1963 10.1111/ddi.13078 10.1002/eap.2717 10.1029/2018GL080959 10.1086/507711 |
| ContentType | Journal Article |
| Copyright | 2024 The Authors |
| Copyright_xml | – notice: 2024 The Authors |
| DBID | 6I. AAFTH AAYXX CITATION 7S9 L.6 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326 |
| DatabaseName | ScienceDirect Open Access Titles Elsevier:ScienceDirect:Open Access CrossRef AGRICOLA AGRICOLA - Academic |
| DatabaseTitle | CrossRef AGRICOLA AGRICOLA - Academic |
| DatabaseTitleList | AGRICOLA |
| DeliveryMethod | fulltext_linktorsrc |
| Discipline | Biology Forestry |
| ExternalDocumentID | 10_1016_j_foreco_2024_122326 S0378112724006388 |
| GeographicLocations | Arizona |
| GeographicLocations_xml | – name: Arizona |
| GroupedDBID | --K --M .~1 0R~ 1B1 1RT 1~. 1~5 4.4 457 4G. 53G 5GY 5VS 6I. 7-5 71M 8P~ 9JM AABNK AACTN AAEDW AAFTH AAHBH AAIKJ AAKOC AALRI AAOAW AAQFI AATLK AAXKI AAXUO ABFNM ABFRF ABFYP ABGRD ABJNI ABLST ABMAC ACDAQ ACGFO ACGFS ACIUM ACRLP ADBBV ADEZE ADQTV AEBSH AEFWE AEKER AENEX AEQOU AFJKZ AFKWA AFTJW AFXIZ AGUBO AGYEJ AHEUO AHHHB AIEXJ AIKHN AITUG AJOXV AKIFW AKRWK ALMA_UNASSIGNED_HOLDINGS AMFUW AMRAJ AXJTR BKOJK BLECG BLXMC CS3 DU5 EBS EFJIC EO8 EO9 EP2 EP3 F5P FDB FIRID FNPLU FYGXN G-Q GBLVA IHE J1W KCYFY KOM LW9 LY9 M41 MO0 N9A N~3 O-L O9- OAUVE OZT P-8 P-9 P2P PC. Q38 ROL RPZ SAB SCC SDF SDG SDP SES SEW SPCBC SSA SSJ SSZ T5K WH7 Y6R ~02 ~G- ~KM 29H 9DU AAEDT AALCJ AAQXK AATTM AAYWO AAYXX ABWVN ABXDB ACLOT ACRPL ACVFH ADCNI ADMUD ADNMO ADVLN AEGFY AEIPS AEUPX AFPUW AGHFR AGQPQ AI. AIDBO AIGII AIIUN AKBMS AKYEP ANKPU APXCP ASPBG AVWKF AZFZN CITATION EFKBS EFLBG EJD FEDTE FGOYB G-2 HLV HMC HVGLF HZ~ R2- SEN VH1 WUQ ZKB ZY4 ~HD 7S9 L.6 |
| ID | FETCH-LOGICAL-c288t-c8caeb2fc56cbdf4b764497b228d94d42911c7845f127daba99536f01ec2f42d3 |
| ISICitedReferencesCount | 1 |
| ISICitedReferencesURI | http://www.webofscience.com/api/gateway?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=Summon&SrcAuth=ProQuest&DestLinkType=CitingArticles&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=001341281200001&url=https%3A%2F%2Fcvtisr.summon.serialssolutions.com%2F%23%21%2Fsearch%3Fho%3Df%26include.ft.matches%3Dt%26l%3Dnull%26q%3D |
| ISSN | 0378-1127 |
| IngestDate | Thu Oct 02 21:45:19 EDT 2025 Sat Nov 29 01:38:00 EST 2025 Wed Dec 04 16:47:13 EST 2024 |
| IsDoiOpenAccess | true |
| IsOpenAccess | true |
| IsPeerReviewed | true |
| IsScholarly | true |
| Keywords | Tree mortality Populus tremuloides Montane forests Southwestern United States Ecological disturbance Tree regeneration |
| Language | English |
| License | This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC license. |
| LinkModel | OpenURL |
| MergedId | FETCHMERGED-LOGICAL-c288t-c8caeb2fc56cbdf4b764497b228d94d42911c7845f127daba99536f01ec2f42d3 |
| Notes | ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 23 |
| OpenAccessLink | https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326 |
| PQID | 3153844922 |
| PQPubID | 24069 |
| ParticipantIDs | proquest_miscellaneous_3153844922 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_foreco_2024_122326 elsevier_sciencedirect_doi_10_1016_j_foreco_2024_122326 |
| PublicationCentury | 2000 |
| PublicationDate | 2024-11-15 |
| PublicationDateYYYYMMDD | 2024-11-15 |
| PublicationDate_xml | – month: 11 year: 2024 text: 2024-11-15 day: 15 |
| PublicationDecade | 2020 |
| PublicationTitle | Forest ecology and management |
| PublicationYear | 2024 |
| Publisher | Elsevier B.V |
| Publisher_xml | – sequence: 0 name: Elsevier B.V |
| References | Fire (bib35) 2023 North, York, Collins, Hurteau, Jones, Knapp, Kobziar, McCann, Meyer, Stephens, Tompkins, Tubbesing (bib78) 2021; 119 Mueller, Thode, Margolis (bib75) 2020; 460 Seidl, Thom, Kautz, Martin-Benito, Peltoniemi, Vacchiano, Reyer (bib95) 2017; 7 Andrus, Hart, Tutland, Veblen (bib5) 2021; 12 Williams, Cook, Smerdon, Cook, Abatzoglou, Bolles, Baek, Badger, Livneh (bib110) 2020; 368 Menon, Bagley, Friedline, Whipple, Schoettle, Leal-Saenz, Wehenkel, Molina-Freaner, Flores-Renteria, González-Elizondo, Sniezko, Cushman, Waring, Eckert (bib73) 2018; 27 Perala (bib82) 1990; Volume 2 R Core Team., 2023. R: A language and environment for statistical computing (4.2.0). R Foundation for Statistical Computing. https://www.r-project.org/. Wilderness Act 16 US Code § 1131, 1964. URL: https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?path=/prelim@title16/chapter23&edition=prelim. Jump, Peñuelas (bib54) 2005; 8 Kitchen, Behrens, Goodrich, Green, Guyon, O’Brien, Tart (bib56) 2019 Crouch, Rogers, Moore, Waring (bib25) 2023; 69 Fulé, Sánchez Meador, Moore, Covington, Kolb, Huffman, Roccaforte (bib39) 2022; 32 Worrall, Rehfeldt, Hamann, Hogg, Marchetti, Michaelian, Gray (bib112) 2013; 299 Bell, Bradford, Lauenroth (bib11) 2014; 23 Cocke, Fulé, Crouse (bib19) 2005; 42 McCune, Keon (bib71) 2002; 13 Edgeley, Colavito (bib32) 2022; 120 Frey, Lieffers, Landhausser, Comeau, Greenway (bib37) 2003; 33 Lüdecke, Ben-Shachar, Patil, Waggoner, Makowski (bib65) 2021; 6 Margolis, Swetnam, Allen, C.D (bib67) 2007; 37 Kreider, Yocom (bib59) 2021; 102 Coop, Parks, Stevens-Rumann, Crausbay, Higuera, Hurteau (bib21) 2020; 70 Gonzales (bib43) 2017 Krasnow, Stephens (bib58) 2015; 6 Westerling, Hidalgo, Cayan, Swetnam (bib108) 2006; 313 Turner (bib105) 2020; 375 Fairweather, Geils, Manthei (bib33) 2008 Bartos (bib9) 2001 Hessburg, Miller, Parks, Povak, Taylor, Higuera, Prichard, North, Collins, Hurteau, Larson, Allen, Stephens, Rivera-Huerta, Stevens-Rumann, Daniels, Gedalof, Gray, Kane, Churchill, Hagmann, Spies, Cansler, Belote, Veblen, Battaglia, Hoffman, Skinner, Safford, Salter (bib48) 2019; 7 Flatley, Fulé (bib36) 2016; 7 O’Connor, Lynch, Falk, Swetnam (bib80) 2015; 336 Schier, Jones, Winokur (bib94) 1985 O'Donnell, Flatley, Springer, Fulé (bib81) 2018; 28 Anderegg, Anderegg, Abatzoglou, Hausladen, Berry (bib3) 2013; 19 Donato, Fontaine, Robinson, Kauffman, Law (bib30) 2009; 97 Prasad, Pedlar, Peters, McKenney, Iverson, Matthews, Adams (bib83) 2020; 26 Rogers, Landhäusser, Pinno, Ryel (bib91) 2014; 60 Nigro, Rocca, Battaglia, Coop, Redmond (bib77) 2022; 49 Kweon, Comean (bib62) 2019; 438 Bartón (bib8) 2018 Ireland, Moore, Fulé, Yocom, Zegler (bib52) 2020 Heinlein, A, Moore, Fulé, Covington (bib47) 2005; 14 Romme, Floyd-Hanna, Hanna, Bartlett (bib93) 2001 Calder, Parker, Stopka, Jiménez-Moreno, Shuman (bib15) 2015; 112 Abatzoglou, Williams, Barbero (bib1) 2019; 46 Margolis, Swetnam, Allen (bib66) 2011 Ayres, Fulé, Flatley (bib6) 2024 Rehfeldt, Crookston, Warwell, Evans (bib86) 2006; 167 Dobrowski, Swanson, Abatzoglou, Holden, Safford, Schwartz, Gavin (bib29) 2015; 24 Crouch, Grady, Wilhelmi, Hofstetter, DePinte, Waring (bib24) 2021; 23 Batllori, Lloret, Aakala, Anderegg, Aynekulu, Bendixsen, Zeeman (bib10) 2020; 117 Fairweather, Rokala, Mock (bib34) 2014; 60 Ganey, Vojta (bib41) 2011; 261 Kulakowski, Kaye, Kashian (bib61) 2013; 299 Anderegg, Hicke, Fisher, Allen, Aukema, Bentz, Hood, Lichstein, Macalady, McDowell, Pan, Raffa, Sala, Shaw, Stephenson, Tague, Zeppel (bib4) 2015; 208 Fulé, Barrett, Cocke, Crouse, Roccaforte, Normandin, Covington, Moore, Heinlein, Stoddard, Rodman (bib38) 2023; 19 Lewis, Clair, Fairweather, M.L.Rubin (bib64) 2024 Davis, Robles, Kemp, Higuera, Chapman, Metlen, Campbell (bib28) 2023; 120 Wolf, Higuera, Davis, Dobrowski (bib111) 2021; 12 Smith, Fettig, Bowker (bib99) 2016; 362 Colavito, Combrink, Hjerpe, Edgeley, Burnett, Sánchez Meador (bib20) 2021 Shepperd, Bartos, Mata (bib97) 2001; 31 Martínez González, González-Villarreal (bib69) 2005 Waring (bib107) 2018 Leopold, Sowls, Spencer (bib63) 1947; 11 Kane, Kolb (bib55) 2014; 44 Bjornstad (bib13) 2019 Campbell, R.B., Jr., Bartos, D.L., 2001. Aspen ecosystems: Objectives for sustaining biodiversity. In: Shepperd, Wayne D.; Binkley, Dan; Bartos, Dale L.; [et al.], comps. Sustaining aspen in western landscapes: Symposium proceedings; 2000 June 3–15; Grand Junction, CO. Proceedings RMRS-P-18. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station: 299–307. Nuñez, Bailey, Schweitzer (bib79) 2010 Shaw, Menlove, Witt, Morgan, Amacher, Goeking, Werstak (bib96) 2018 Rehfeldt, Ferguson, Crookston (bib87) 2009; 258 Rhodes, Larsen, Clair (bib88) 2018; 422 Crausbay, Higuera, Sprugel, Brubaker (bib23) 2017; 98 Hanna, Kulakowski (bib44) 2012; 274 Hoffman, Mathiasen, Hofstetter, Fairweather, Shaw, Hanna, Klopfenstein (bib50) 2014; 45 Marsh, Krofcheck, Hurteau (bib68) 2022; 313 Ganey, Iniguez, Vojta, Iniguez (bib40) 2021; 8 Bailey, Whitham (bib7) 2002; 83 Chong, G.W., Simonson, S.E., Stohlgren, T.J., Kalkhan, M.A., 2001. Biodiversity: Aspen Stands Have the Lead, but Will Nonnative Species Take Over? In Sustaining Aspen in Western Landscapes: Symposium Proceedings, edited by W.D. Shepperd, D. Binkley, D.L. Bartos, T.J. Stohlgren, and L.G. Eskew, 261–72. USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS–P–18. Fort Collins, CO: Rocky Mountain Research Station. Curtis, McIntosh (bib27) 1951; 32 Rodman, Andrus, Carlson, Carter, Chapman, Coop, Hart (bib90) 2022; 110 Binkley, Moore, Romme, Brown (bib12) 2006; 9 Crouch, Wilhelmi, Rogers, Moore, Waring (bib26) 2024 Stevens-Rumann, Prichard, Whitman, Parisien, Meddens (bib102) 2022; 52 Alsos, Rijal, Ehrich, Karger, Yoccoz, Heintzman, PhyloNorway Consortium (bib2) 2022; 8 Hartig (bib46) 2018 Hart, Veblen, Schneider, Molotch (bib45) 2017; 98 McCool (bib70) 2001 Shriver, Yackulic, Bell, Bradford (bib98) 2022; 31 Nagel, Palik, Battaglia (bib76) 2017; 115 PRISM Climate Group, Oregon State University, https://prism.oregonstate.edu, data accessed 17 January 2024. Robin, Turck, Hainard, Tiberti, Lisacek, Sanchez, Müller (bib89) 2011; 12 Waltz, Stoddard, Kalies, Springer, Huffman, Sánchez Meador (bib106) 2014; 334 Yocom-Kent, Fulé, Bunn, Gdula, E.G (bib113) 2015; 45 Johnstone, Allen, Franklin, Frelich, Harvey, Higuera, Mack, Meentemeyer, Metz, Perry, Schoennagel, Turner (bib53) 2016; 14 Kuhn, Safford, Jones, Tate (bib60) 2011; 212 Kolb, Ayres, Stewart (bib57) 2016; 380 Zegler, Moore, Fairweather, Ireland, Fulé (bib114) 2012; 282 Goeking, Menlove (bib42) 2017 St. Clair, Guyon, Donaldson (bib100) 2010; 71 Steinhoff, Andresen (bib101) 1971; 20 Millar, Stephenson, Stephens (bib74) 2007; 17 McDowell, Allen, Anderson-Teixeira, Aukema, Bond-Lamberty, Chini, Clark, Dietze, Grossiord, Hanbury-brown, Hurtt, Jackson, Johnson, Kueppers, Lichstein, Ogle, Poulter, Pugh, Seidl, Xu (bib72) 2020; 368 Stoddard, Huffman, Fule, Crouse, Sánchez Meador (bib103) 2018; 14 Qiu, Sharma, Woodall, Clark (bib85) 2021; 9 Rolf (bib92) 2001 Ireland, Moore, Fulé, Zegler, Keane (bib51) 2014; 175 Triepke, Muldavin, Wahlberg (bib104) 2019; 10 Donato, Harvey, Turner (bib31) 2016; 7 Brooks, Kristensen, van, Benthem, Magnusson, Berg, Nielsen, Skaug, Maechler, Bolker (bib14) 2017; 9 Clement, Harding, Lucas, Rubin (bib18) 2019; 441 Hill, Field (bib49) 2021; 12 Fire (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib35) 2023 Calder (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib15) 2015; 112 Lewis (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib64) 2024; 555 Ireland (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib52) 2020 Kane (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib55) 2014; 44 Crouch (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib24) 2021; 23 Williams (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib110) 2020; 368 Steinhoff (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib101) 1971; 20 McCool (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib70) 2001 Prasad (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib83) 2020; 26 Clement (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib18) 2019; 441 Goeking (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib42) 2017 Marsh (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib68) 2022; 313 Curtis (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib27) 1951; 32 Rodman (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib90) 2022; 110 Schier (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib94) 1985 Batllori (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib10) 2020; 117 Donato (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib31) 2016; 7 Waltz (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib106) 2014; 334 Edgeley (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib32) 2022; 120 Gonzales (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib43) 2017 McDowell (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib72) 2020; 368 Rehfeldt (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib87) 2009; 258 Kitchen (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib56) 2019 Fulé (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib38) 2023; 19 Qiu (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib85) 2021; 9 Romme (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib93) 2001 Ganey (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib40) 2021; 8 Stevens-Rumann (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib102) 2022; 52 Leopold (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib63) 1947; 11 Bartos (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib9) 2001 Ireland (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib51) 2014; 175 Crouch (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib25) 2023; 69 Zegler (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib114) 2012; 282 Crausbay (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib23) 2017; 98 Donato (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib30) 2009; 97 Bartón (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib8) 2018 Alsos (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib2) 2022; 8 Brooks (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib14) 2017; 9 Hanna (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib44) 2012; 274 Robin (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib89) 2011; 12 Frey (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib37) 2003; 33 Kreider (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib59) 2021; 102 Davis (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib28) 2023; 120 Dobrowski (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib29) 2015; 24 Triepke (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib104) 2019; 10 Binkley (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib12) 2006; 9 Colavito (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib20) 2021 Perala (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib82) 1990; Volume 2 Shriver (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib98) 2022; 31 Fairweather (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib34) 2014; 60 Martínez González (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib69) 2005 Menon (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib73) 2018; 27 Ayres (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib6) 2024 Coop (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib21) 2020; 70 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib84 Turner (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib105) 2020; 375 Worrall (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib112) 2013; 299 Millar (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib74) 2007; 17 St. Clair (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib100) 2010; 71 Krasnow (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib58) 2015; 6 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib109 Lüdecke (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib65) 2021; 6 O'Donnell (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib81) 2018; 28 Rolf (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib92) 2001 Kulakowski (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib61) 2013; 299 Yocom-Kent (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib113) 2015; 45 Jump (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib54) 2005; 8 Mueller (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib75) 2020; 460 Smith (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib99) 2016; 362 Flatley (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib36) 2016; 7 Rhodes (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib88) 2018; 422 Abatzoglou (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib1) 2019; 46 Bailey (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib7) 2002; 83 Hessburg (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib48) 2019; 7 Wolf (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib111) 2021; 12 Bjornstad (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib13) 2019 Bell (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib11) 2014; 23 Cocke (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib19) 2005; 42 Westerling (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib108) 2006; 313 Margolis (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib67) 2007; 37 Shaw (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib96) 2018 Ganey (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib41) 2011; 261 North (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib78) 2021; 119 Kuhn (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib60) 2011; 212 Shepperd (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib97) 2001; 31 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib22 Fairweather (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib33) 2008 Hartig (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib46) 2018 McCune (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib71) 2002; 13 Anderegg (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib3) 2013; 19 Margolis (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib66) 2011; 7 Rogers (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib91) 2014; 60 Heinlein (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib47) 2005; 14 Nagel (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib76) 2017; 115 Kolb (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib57) 2016; 380 Kweon (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib62) 2019; 438 Waring (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib107) 2018 Johnstone (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib53) 2016; 14 Stoddard (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib103) 2018; 14 Hill (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib49) 2021; 12 O’Connor (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib80) 2015; 336 Crouch (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib26) 2024 Seidl (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib95) 2017; 7 Rehfeldt (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib86) 2006; 167 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib16 Fulé (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib39) 2022; 32 Hart (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib45) 2017; 98 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib17 Hoffman (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib50) 2014; 45 Andrus (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib5) 2021; 12 Anderegg (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib4) 2015; 208 Nuñez (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib79) 2010; 12 Nigro (10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib77) 2022; 49 |
| References_xml | – reference: R Core Team., 2023. R: A language and environment for statistical computing (4.2.0). R Foundation for Statistical Computing. https://www.r-project.org/. – volume: 83 start-page: 1701 year: 2002 end-page: 1712 ident: bib7 article-title: Interactions among fire, aspen, and elk affect insect diversity: reversal of a community response publication-title: Ecology – volume: 97 start-page: 142 year: 2009 end-page: 154 ident: bib30 article-title: Vegetation response to a short interval between high severity wildfires in a mixed-evergreen forest publication-title: J. Ecol. – volume: 11 start-page: 162 year: 1947 end-page: 177 ident: bib63 article-title: A survey of over-populated deer ranges in the United States publication-title: J. Wildl. Manag. – year: 2011 ident: bib66 article-title: Historical stand-replacing fire in Upper Montane forests of the madrean Sky Islands and Mogollon Plateau, Southwestern USA publication-title: Fire Ecol. – year: 2020 ident: bib52 article-title: Warm, dry conditions inhibit aspen growth, but tree growth and size predict mortality risk in the southwestern United States publication-title: Can. J. For. Res. – reference: PRISM Climate Group, Oregon State University, https://prism.oregonstate.edu, data accessed 17 January 2024. – volume: 6 start-page: 1 year: 2015 end-page: 16 ident: bib58 article-title: Evolving paradigms of aspen ecology and management: impacts of stand condition and fire severity on vegetation dynamics publication-title: Ecosphere – volume: 258 start-page: 2353 year: 2009 end-page: 2364 ident: bib87 article-title: Aspen, climate, and sudden decline in western USA publication-title: For. Ecol. Manag. – reference: Campbell, R.B., Jr., Bartos, D.L., 2001. Aspen ecosystems: Objectives for sustaining biodiversity. In: Shepperd, Wayne D.; Binkley, Dan; Bartos, Dale L.; [et al.], comps. Sustaining aspen in western landscapes: Symposium proceedings; 2000 June 3–15; Grand Junction, CO. Proceedings RMRS-P-18. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station: 299–307. – volume: 12 year: 2021 ident: bib5 article-title: Future dominance by quaking aspen expected following short-interval, compounded disturbance interaction publication-title: Ecosphere – volume: 23 start-page: 2893 year: 2021 end-page: 2912 ident: bib24 article-title: Oystershell scale: an emerging invasive threat to aspen in the Southwestern US publication-title: Biol. Invasions – volume: 120 year: 2023 ident: bib28 article-title: Reduced fire severity offers near-term buffer to climate-driven declines in conifer resilience across the western United States publication-title: Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. – start-page: 53 year: 2008 end-page: 62 ident: bib33 article-title: Aspen decline on the Coconino National Forest publication-title: Proceedings of the55th Western International Forest Disease Work Conference – volume: 44 start-page: 1227 year: 2014 end-page: 1235 ident: bib55 article-title: Short- and long-term growth characteristics associated with tree mortality in southwestern mixed conifer forests publication-title: Can. J. For. Res. – year: 2024 ident: bib64 article-title: Fire severity and ungulate herbivory shape forest regeneration and recruitment after a large mixed-severity wildfire publication-title: For. Ecol. Manag. – volume: 8 year: 2021 ident: bib40 article-title: Twenty years of drought-mediated change in snag populations in mixed conifer and ponderosa pine forest in Northern Arizona publication-title: For. Ecosyst. – volume: 14 start-page: 12 year: 2018 ident: bib103 article-title: Forest structure and regeneration response 15 years after wildfire in a ponderosa pine and mixed-conifer ecotone, Arizona, USA publication-title: Fire Ecol. – start-page: 5 year: 2001 end-page: 14 ident: bib9 article-title: Landscape dynamics of aspen and conifer forests publication-title: Sustaining aspen in western landscapes: Symposium proceedings; 13–15 June 2000; Grand Junction, CO. Proceedings RMRS-P-18 – year: 2017 ident: bib43 article-title: Coconino National Forest, AZ. Undergraduate Research Paper, Flagstaff, AZ: ecological Restoration Institute, Northern Arizona University publication-title: Five-year Post-treat. Eff. Jackstraw Treat. Aspen Regen. Large Ungulat-.-. Presence Schultz Fire – volume: 60 start-page: 345 year: 2014 end-page: 359 ident: bib91 article-title: A functional framework for improved management of western north American aspen ( publication-title: For. Sci. – volume: 46 start-page: 326 year: 2019 end-page: 336 ident: bib1 article-title: Global emergence of anthropogenic climate change in fire weather indices publication-title: Geophys. Res. Lett. – volume: 299 start-page: 52 year: 2013 end-page: 59 ident: bib61 article-title: Long-term aspen cover change in the western US publication-title: For. Ecol. Manag. – volume: 115 start-page: 167 year: 2017 end-page: 178 ident: bib76 article-title: Adaptive silviculture for climate change: a national experiment in manager-scientist partnerships to apply an adaptation framework publication-title: J. For. – volume: 98 start-page: 2698 year: 2017 end-page: 2707 ident: bib45 article-title: Summer and winter drought drive the initiation and spread of spruce beetle outbreak publication-title: Ecology – volume: 27 start-page: 1245 year: 2018 end-page: 1260 ident: bib73 article-title: The role of hybridization during ecological divergence of southwestern white pine ( publication-title: Mol. Ecol. – year: 2018 ident: bib96 article-title: Arizona’s forest resources, 2001–2014. Resour. Bull. RMRS-RB-25. Fort Collins, CO: U.S publication-title: Dep. Agric. For. Serv. Rocky Mt. Res. Station – volume: 119 start-page: 520 year: 2021 end-page: 544 ident: bib78 article-title: Pyrosilviculture needed for landscape resilience of dry western United States forests publication-title: J. For. – volume: 42 start-page: 814 year: 2005 end-page: 823 ident: bib19 article-title: Forest Change on a steep mountain gradient after extended fire exclusion: San Francisco Peaks, Arizona, USA publication-title: J. Appl. Ecol. – volume: 208 year: 2015 ident: bib4 article-title: Tree mortality from drought, insects, and their interactions in a changing climate publication-title: N. Phytol. – volume: 375 start-page: 20190105 year: 2020 ident: bib105 article-title: Climate change, ecosystems and abrupt change: science priorities publication-title: Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B – volume: Volume 2 start-page: 555 year: 1990 end-page: 569 ident: bib82 article-title: Populus tremuloides Michx publication-title: Silvics of North America – volume: 9 year: 2021 ident: bib85 article-title: Niche shifts from trees to fecundity to recruitment that determine species response to climate change publication-title: Front. Ecol. Evol. – volume: 17 start-page: 2145 year: 2007 end-page: 2151 ident: bib74 article-title: Climate change and forests of the future: Managing in the face of uncertainty publication-title: Ecol. Appl. – volume: 31 start-page: 739 year: 2001 end-page: 745 ident: bib97 article-title: Above- and below-ground effects of aspen clonal regeneration and succession to conifers publication-title: Can. J. For. Res. – volume: 28 start-page: 1459 year: 2018 end-page: 1472 ident: bib81 article-title: Forest restoration as a strategy to mitigate climate impacts on wildfire, vegetation, and water in semiarid forests publication-title: Ecol. Appl. – volume: 24 start-page: 917 year: 2015 end-page: 927 ident: bib29 article-title: Forest structure and species traits mediate projected recruitment declines in Western US tree species publication-title: Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. – volume: 313 start-page: 940 year: 2006 end-page: 943 ident: bib108 article-title: Warming and earlier spring increase Western U.S. Forest wildfire activity publication-title: Science – volume: 60 start-page: 703 year: 2014 end-page: 712 ident: bib34 article-title: Aspen seedling establishment and growth after wildfire in central Arizona: an instructive case history publication-title: For. Sci. – volume: 20 start-page: 159 year: 1971 end-page: 167 ident: bib101 article-title: Geographic variation in publication-title: Silvae Genet. – start-page: 45 year: 2021 ident: bib20 article-title: ERI White Paper—Issues in Forest Restoration. Ecological Restoration Institute publication-title: Full-Cost Accounting Remeasurement of the 2010 Schultz Fire: Understanding the Long-term Socio-Economic Implications of High-Severity Wildfire and Post-Wildfire Flooding – volume: 9 start-page: 378 year: 2017 end-page: 400 ident: bib14 article-title: glmmTMB balances speed and flexibility among packages for zero-inflated generalized linear mixed modeling publication-title: R. J. – start-page: 297 year: 2010 end-page: 301 ident: bib79 article-title: Population, community and ecosystem effects of exotic herbivores: a growing global concern publication-title: Biol. Invasions – year: 2024 ident: bib26 article-title: Sustainability and drivers of publication-title: For. Int. J. For. Res. – start-page: 68 year: 2017 ident: bib42 article-title: New Mexico’s forest resources, 2008–2014. Resour. Bull. RMRS-RB-24 publication-title: Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service – volume: 175 start-page: 847 year: 2014 end-page: 859 ident: bib51 article-title: Slow lifelong growth predisposes publication-title: Oecologia – volume: 49 start-page: 201 year: 2022 end-page: 214 ident: bib77 article-title: Wildfire catalyzes upward range expansion of trembling aspen in beetle-killed forests of the southern Rocky Mountains publication-title: J. Biogeogr. – volume: 117 start-page: 29720 year: 2020 end-page: 29729 ident: bib10 article-title: Forest and woodland replacement patterns following drought-related mortality publication-title: Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. – volume: 19 start-page: 41 year: 2023 ident: bib38 article-title: Fire regimes over a 1070-m elevational gradient, San Fransico Peaks/ Dook’o’oosłííd, Arizona, USA publication-title: Fire Ecol. – volume: 8 start-page: 1010 year: 2005 end-page: 1020 ident: bib54 article-title: Running to stand still: adaptation and the response of plants to rapid climate change publication-title: Ecol. Lett. – volume: 460 year: 2020 ident: bib75 article-title: Climate relationships with increasing wildfire in the southwestern US from 1984 to 2015 publication-title: For. Ecol. Manag. – year: 2005 ident: bib69 article-title: Taxonomía y Biogeografía del Género Populus (Salicaceae) en México – volume: 98 start-page: 23562369 year: 2017 ident: bib23 article-title: Fire catalyzed rapid ecological change in lowland coniferous forests of the Pacific Northwest over the past 14,000 years publication-title: Ecology – volume: 71 start-page: 371 year: 2010 end-page: 400 ident: bib100 article-title: Quaking aspen’s current and future status in western North America: the role of succession, climate, biotic agents and its clonal nature publication-title: Progr. Bot. – year: 2018 ident: bib107 article-title: The Natural History of the San Francisco Peaks publication-title: A Sky Island of the American Southwest – volume: 45 start-page: 276 year: 2014 end-page: 286 ident: bib50 article-title: Survey for Armillaria by plant association in Northern Arizona publication-title: J. Ariz. Nev. Acad. Sci. – volume: 167 start-page: 1123 year: 2006 end-page: 1150 ident: bib86 article-title: Empirical analyses of plant-climate relationships for the western United States publication-title: Int. J. Plant. Sci. – volume: 69 start-page: 334 year: 2023 end-page: 354 ident: bib25 article-title: Building ecosystem resilience and adaptive cpacity: a systematic review of aspen ecology and management in the Southwest publication-title: For. Sci. – volume: 8 year: 2022 ident: bib2 article-title: Postglacial species arrival and diversity buildup of northern ecosystems took millennia publication-title: Sci. Adv. – volume: 14 start-page: 307 year: 2005 end-page: 320 ident: bib47 article-title: Fire history and stand structure of two ponderosa pine-mixed conifer sites: San Francisco Peaks, Arizona, USA publication-title: Int. J. Wildland Fire – volume: 102 year: 2021 ident: bib59 article-title: Low-density aspen seedling establishment is widespread following recent wildfires in the western United States publication-title: Ecology – volume: 299 start-page: 35 year: 2013 end-page: 51 ident: bib112 article-title: Recent declines of publication-title: For. Ecol. Manag. – volume: 31 start-page: 2259 year: 2022 end-page: 2269 ident: bib98 article-title: Dry forest decline is driven by both declining recruitment and increasing mortality in response to warm, dry conditions publication-title: Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. – volume: 70 start-page: 659 year: 2020 end-page: 673 ident: bib21 article-title: Wildfire-driven forest conversion in western North American landscapes publication-title: Bioscience – volume: 7 start-page: 395 year: 2017 end-page: 402 ident: bib95 article-title: Forest disturbances under climate change publication-title: Nat. Clim. Chang – volume: 212 start-page: 1451 year: 2011 end-page: 1463 ident: bib60 article-title: Aspen ( publication-title: Plant Ecol. – volume: 368 start-page: 314 year: 2020 end-page: 318 ident: bib110 article-title: Large contribution from anthropogenic warming to an emerging North American megadrought publication-title: Science – volume: 261 start-page: 162 year: 2011 end-page: 186 ident: bib41 article-title: Tree mortality in drought-stressed mixed-conifer and ponderosa pine forests, Arizona, USA publication-title: For. Ecol. Manag. – year: 1985 ident: bib94 article-title: Vegetative regeneration. P. 29–33 in Aspen: ecology and management in the western United States publication-title: USDA Forest Service Gen Tech. Rep – volume: 120 start-page: 660 year: 2022 end-page: 675 ident: bib32 article-title: Characterizing divergent experiences with the same wildfire: insights from a survey of households in evacuation, postfire flood risk, and unaffected areas after the 2019 Museum Fire publication-title: J. For. – volume: 13 start-page: 603 year: 2002 end-page: 606 ident: bib71 article-title: Equations for potential annual direct incident radiation and heat load publication-title: J. Veg. Sci. – volume: 6 year: 2021 ident: bib65 article-title: performance: an R package for assessment, comparison and testing of statistical models publication-title: J. Open Source Softw. – volume: 23 start-page: 168 year: 2014 end-page: 180 ident: bib11 article-title: Early indicators of change: divergent climate envelopes between tree life stages imply range shifts in the western United States publication-title: Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. – volume: 14 start-page: 369 year: 2016 end-page: 378 ident: bib53 article-title: Changing disturbance regimes, ecological memory, and forest resilience publication-title: Front. Ecol. Environ. – volume: 10 year: 2019 ident: bib104 article-title: Using climate projections to assess ecosystem vulnerability at scales relevant to managers publication-title: Ecosphere – volume: 12 year: 2021 ident: bib111 article-title: Wildfire impacts on forest microclimate vary with biophysical context publication-title: Ecosphere – volume: 26 start-page: 1142 year: 2020 end-page: 1159 ident: bib83 article-title: Combining US and Canadian forest inventories to assess habitat suitability and migration potential of 25 tree species under climate change publication-title: Divers. Distrib. – volume: 45 start-page: 1587 year: 2015 end-page: 1596 ident: bib113 article-title: Historical high severity fire patches in mixed-conifer forests publication-title: Can. J. For. Res. – volume: 110 start-page: 2929 year: 2022 end-page: 2949 ident: bib90 article-title: Rocky Mountain forests are poised to recover following bark beetle outbreaks but with altered composition publication-title: J. Ecol. – volume: 9 start-page: 227 year: 2006 end-page: 241 ident: bib12 article-title: Was Aldo Leopold right about the Kaibab Deer herd? publication-title: Ecosystems – start-page: 243 year: 2001 end-page: 260 ident: bib93 article-title: Aspen’s ecological role in the West publication-title: Sustaining aspen in western landscapes: Symposium proceedings – volume: 7 start-page: 1 year: 2016 end-page: 16 ident: bib31 article-title: Regeneration of montane forests 24 years after the 1988 Yellowstone fires: a fire catalyzed shift in lower treelines? publication-title: Ecosphere – volume: 7 start-page: 239 year: 2019 ident: bib48 article-title: Climate, environment, and disturbance history govern resilience of western North American forests publication-title: Front. Ecol. Evol. – volume: 19 start-page: 1526 year: 2013 end-page: 1537 ident: bib3 article-title: Drought characteristics' role in widespread aspen forest mortality across Colorado, USA publication-title: Glob. Change Biol. – volume: 32 year: 2022 ident: bib39 article-title: Forest restoration treatments increased growth and did not change survival of ponderosa pines in severe drought, Arizona publication-title: Ecol. Appl. – volume: 32 start-page: 476 year: 1951 end-page: 496 ident: bib27 article-title: An upland forest continuum in the prairie-forest border region of Wisconsin publication-title: Ecology – volume: 334 start-page: 43 year: 2014 end-page: 52 ident: bib106 article-title: Effectiveness of fuel reduction treatments: assessing metrics of forest resiliency and wildfire severity after the Wallow Fire, AZ publication-title: For. Ecol. Manag. – year: 2019 ident: bib13 article-title: ncf: spatial covariance functions publication-title: R. Package – start-page: 55 year: 2019 ident: bib56 article-title: Guidelines for aspen restoration in Utah with applicability to the Intermountain West. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-390 publication-title: Fort Collins CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service – volume: 313 year: 2022 ident: bib68 article-title: Identifying microclimate tree seedling refugia in post-wildfire landscapes publication-title: Agric. For. Meteorol. – volume: 282 year: 2012 ident: bib114 article-title: mortality near the southwestern edge of its range publication-title: For. Ecol. Manag. – volume: 380 start-page: 321 year: 2016 end-page: 334 ident: bib57 article-title: Observed and anticipated impacts of drought on forest insects and diseases in the United States publication-title: For. Ecol. Manag. – volume: 422 start-page: 273 year: 2018 end-page: 280 ident: bib88 article-title: Differential effects of cattle, mule deer, and elk herbivory on aspen forest regeneration and recruitment publication-title: For. Ecol. Manag. – volume: 12 start-page: 6583 year: 2021 ident: bib49 article-title: Forest fires and climate-induced tree range shifts in the western US publication-title: Nat. Commun. – volume: 438 start-page: 114 year: 2019 end-page: 122 ident: bib62 article-title: Relationships between tree survival, stand structure and age in trembling aspen dominated stands publication-title: For. Ecol. Manag. – volume: 112 start-page: 13261 year: 2015 end-page: 13266 ident: bib15 article-title: Medieval warming initiated exceptionally large wildfire outbreaks in the Rocky Mountains publication-title: Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. – start-page: 193 year: 2001 end-page: 196 ident: bib92 article-title: Aspen fencing in northern Arizona: a 15-year perspective publication-title: Sustaining aspen in western landscapes: Symposium proceedings – volume: 7 year: 2016 ident: bib36 article-title: Are historical fire regimes compatible with future climate? Implications for forest restoration publication-title: Ecosphere – year: 2001 ident: bib70 article-title: Quaking Aspen and the human experience: dimensions, issues, and challenges publication-title: Sustaining Aspen in Western Landscapes: Symposium Proceedings – volume: 441 start-page: 32 year: 2019 end-page: 41 ident: bib18 article-title: The relative importance of biotic and abiotic factors influencing aspen recruitment in Arizona publication-title: For. Ecol. Manag. – year: 2018 ident: bib46 publication-title: Package ‘ Dharma ’: Residual Diagn. Hierarchical (Mulit-lev. /Mixed) Regres. Models – volume: 362 start-page: 46 year: 2016 end-page: 54 ident: bib99 article-title: Elevated Rocky Mountain elk numbers prevent positive effects of fire on quaking aspen ( publication-title: For. Ecol. Manag. – volume: 368 year: 2020 ident: bib72 article-title: Pervasive shifts in forest dynamics in a changing world publication-title: Science – volume: 52 start-page: 1281 year: 2022 end-page: 1302 ident: bib102 article-title: Considering regeneration failure in the context of changing climate and disturbance regimes in western North America publication-title: Can. J. For. Res. – reference: Wilderness Act 16 US Code § 1131, 1964. URL: https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?path=/prelim@title16/chapter23&edition=prelim. – year: 2023 ident: bib35 publication-title: Prescr. Fire US Wilderness Areas – volume: 37 start-page: 2227 year: 2007 end-page: 2241 ident: bib67 article-title: A stand-replacing fire history in upper montane forests of the southern Rocky Mountains publication-title: Can. J. For. Res. – volume: 12 start-page: 77 year: 2011 ident: bib89 article-title: pROC: an open-source package for R and S+ to analyze and compare ROC curves publication-title: BMC Bioinf. – volume: 336 start-page: 148 year: 2015 end-page: 162 ident: bib80 article-title: Post-fire forest dynamics and climate variability affect spatial and temporal properties of spruce beetle outbreaks on a sky island mountain range publication-title: For. Ecol. Manag. – year: 2024 ident: bib6 article-title: Response of aspen to a warming climate along a latitudinal gradient in the Rocky Mountains, USA publication-title: Can. J. For. Res. – volume: 274 start-page: 91 year: 2012 end-page: 98 ident: bib44 article-title: The influences of climate on aspen dieback publication-title: For. Ecol. Manag. – reference: Chong, G.W., Simonson, S.E., Stohlgren, T.J., Kalkhan, M.A., 2001. Biodiversity: Aspen Stands Have the Lead, but Will Nonnative Species Take Over? In Sustaining Aspen in Western Landscapes: Symposium Proceedings, edited by W.D. Shepperd, D. Binkley, D.L. Bartos, T.J. Stohlgren, and L.G. Eskew, 261–72. USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS–P–18. Fort Collins, CO: Rocky Mountain Research Station. – volume: 33 start-page: 1169 year: 2003 end-page: 1179 ident: bib37 article-title: An analysis of sucker regeneration of trembling aspen publication-title: Can. J. For. Res. – year: 2018 ident: bib8 article-title: MuMIn: multi-model inference publication-title: R. Package – year: 2017 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib43 article-title: Coconino National Forest, AZ. Undergraduate Research Paper, Flagstaff, AZ: ecological Restoration Institute, Northern Arizona University publication-title: Five-year Post-treat. Eff. Jackstraw Treat. Aspen Regen. Large Ungulat-.-. Presence Schultz Fire – volume: 441 start-page: 32 year: 2019 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib18 article-title: The relative importance of biotic and abiotic factors influencing aspen recruitment in Arizona publication-title: For. Ecol. Manag. doi: 10.1016/j.foreco.2019.03.026 – volume: 422 start-page: 273 year: 2018 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib88 article-title: Differential effects of cattle, mule deer, and elk herbivory on aspen forest regeneration and recruitment publication-title: For. Ecol. Manag. doi: 10.1016/j.foreco.2018.04.013 – year: 2023 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib35 publication-title: Prescr. Fire US Wilderness Areas – volume: 8 issue: 39 year: 2022 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib2 article-title: Postglacial species arrival and diversity buildup of northern ecosystems took millennia publication-title: Sci. Adv. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.abo7434 – ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib22 – volume: 24 start-page: 917 issue: 8 year: 2015 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib29 article-title: Forest structure and species traits mediate projected recruitment declines in Western US tree species publication-title: Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. doi: 10.1111/geb.12302 – volume: 71 start-page: 371 year: 2010 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib100 article-title: Quaking aspen’s current and future status in western North America: the role of succession, climate, biotic agents and its clonal nature publication-title: Progr. Bot. – volume: 52 start-page: 1281 issue: 10 year: 2022 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib102 article-title: Considering regeneration failure in the context of changing climate and disturbance regimes in western North America publication-title: Can. J. For. Res. doi: 10.1139/cjfr-2022-0054 – year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib52 article-title: Warm, dry conditions inhibit aspen growth, but tree growth and size predict mortality risk in the southwestern United States publication-title: Can. J. For. Res. doi: 10.1139/cjfr-2019-0222 – year: 2018 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib8 article-title: MuMIn: multi-model inference publication-title: R. Package – volume: 49 start-page: 201 issue: 1 year: 2022 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib77 article-title: Wildfire catalyzes upward range expansion of trembling aspen in beetle-killed forests of the southern Rocky Mountains publication-title: J. Biogeogr. doi: 10.1111/jbi.14302 – volume: 313 start-page: 940 issue: 5789 year: 2006 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib108 article-title: Warming and earlier spring increase Western U.S. Forest wildfire activity publication-title: Science doi: 10.1126/science.1128834 – volume: 102 issue: 10 year: 2021 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib59 article-title: Low-density aspen seedling establishment is widespread following recent wildfires in the western United States publication-title: Ecology doi: 10.1002/ecy.3436 – volume: 6 start-page: 1 year: 2015 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib58 article-title: Evolving paradigms of aspen ecology and management: impacts of stand condition and fire severity on vegetation dynamics publication-title: Ecosphere doi: 10.1890/ES14-00354.1 – volume: Volume 2 start-page: 555 year: 1990 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib82 article-title: Populus tremuloides Michx – volume: 460 year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib75 article-title: Climate relationships with increasing wildfire in the southwestern US from 1984 to 2015 publication-title: For. Ecol. Manag. doi: 10.1016/j.foreco.2019.117861 – volume: 11 start-page: 162 issue: 2 year: 1947 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib63 article-title: A survey of over-populated deer ranges in the United States publication-title: J. Wildl. Manag. doi: 10.2307/3795561 – volume: 12 start-page: 77 year: 2011 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib89 article-title: pROC: an open-source package for R and S+ to analyze and compare ROC curves publication-title: BMC Bioinf. doi: 10.1186/1471-2105-12-77 – volume: 261 start-page: 162 year: 2011 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib41 article-title: Tree mortality in drought-stressed mixed-conifer and ponderosa pine forests, Arizona, USA publication-title: For. Ecol. Manag. doi: 10.1016/j.foreco.2010.09.048 – start-page: 243 year: 2001 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib93 article-title: Aspen’s ecological role in the West – year: 2018 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib107 article-title: The Natural History of the San Francisco Peaks – start-page: 45 year: 2021 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib20 article-title: ERI White Paper—Issues in Forest Restoration. Ecological Restoration Institute – volume: 12 year: 2021 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib111 article-title: Wildfire impacts on forest microclimate vary with biophysical context publication-title: Ecosphere doi: 10.1002/ecs2.3467 – volume: 208 year: 2015 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib4 article-title: Tree mortality from drought, insects, and their interactions in a changing climate publication-title: N. Phytol. doi: 10.1111/nph.13477 – volume: 17 start-page: 2145 issue: 8 year: 2007 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib74 article-title: Climate change and forests of the future: Managing in the face of uncertainty publication-title: Ecol. Appl. doi: 10.1890/06-1715.1 – volume: 115 start-page: 167 issue: 3 year: 2017 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib76 article-title: Adaptive silviculture for climate change: a national experiment in manager-scientist partnerships to apply an adaptation framework publication-title: J. For. – volume: 83 start-page: 1701 year: 2002 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib7 article-title: Interactions among fire, aspen, and elk affect insect diversity: reversal of a community response publication-title: Ecology doi: 10.1890/0012-9658(2002)083[1701:IAFAAE]2.0.CO;2 – volume: 70 start-page: 659 issue: 8 year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib21 article-title: Wildfire-driven forest conversion in western North American landscapes publication-title: Bioscience doi: 10.1093/biosci/biaa061 – volume: 19 start-page: 41 year: 2023 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib38 article-title: Fire regimes over a 1070-m elevational gradient, San Fransico Peaks/ Dook’o’oosłííd, Arizona, USA publication-title: Fire Ecol. doi: 10.1186/s42408-023-00204-4 – volume: 14 start-page: 307 year: 2005 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib47 article-title: Fire history and stand structure of two ponderosa pine-mixed conifer sites: San Francisco Peaks, Arizona, USA publication-title: Int. J. Wildland Fire doi: 10.1071/WF04060 – volume: 42 start-page: 814 issue: 5 year: 2005 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib19 article-title: Forest Change on a steep mountain gradient after extended fire exclusion: San Francisco Peaks, Arizona, USA publication-title: J. Appl. Ecol. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2664.2005.01077.x – volume: 12 issue: 1 year: 2021 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib5 article-title: Future dominance by quaking aspen expected following short-interval, compounded disturbance interaction publication-title: Ecosphere doi: 10.1002/ecs2.3345 – volume: 212 start-page: 1451 year: 2011 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib60 article-title: Aspen (Populus tremuloides) stands and their contribution to plant diversity in a semiarid coniferous landscape publication-title: Plant Ecol. doi: 10.1007/s11258-011-9920-4 – volume: 368 start-page: 314 issue: 1979 year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib110 article-title: Large contribution from anthropogenic warming to an emerging North American megadrought publication-title: Science doi: 10.1126/science.aaz9600 – volume: 7 start-page: 239 year: 2019 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib48 article-title: Climate, environment, and disturbance history govern resilience of western North American forests publication-title: Front. Ecol. Evol. doi: 10.3389/fevo.2019.00239 – volume: 60 start-page: 703 issue: 4 year: 2014 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib34 article-title: Aspen seedling establishment and growth after wildfire in central Arizona: an instructive case history publication-title: For. Sci. – volume: 299 start-page: 35 year: 2013 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib112 article-title: Recent declines of Populus tremuloides in North America linked to climate publication-title: For. Ecol. Manag. doi: 10.1016/j.foreco.2012.12.033 – ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib17 – volume: 8 issue: 30 year: 2021 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib40 article-title: Twenty years of drought-mediated change in snag populations in mixed conifer and ponderosa pine forest in Northern Arizona publication-title: For. Ecosyst. – volume: 98 start-page: 23562369 issue: 9 year: 2017 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib23 article-title: Fire catalyzed rapid ecological change in lowland coniferous forests of the Pacific Northwest over the past 14,000 years publication-title: Ecology doi: 10.1002/ecy.1897 – year: 2018 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib96 article-title: Arizona’s forest resources, 2001–2014. Resour. Bull. RMRS-RB-25. Fort Collins, CO: U.S publication-title: Dep. Agric. For. Serv. Rocky Mt. Res. Station – volume: 9 start-page: 378 year: 2017 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib14 article-title: glmmTMB balances speed and flexibility among packages for zero-inflated generalized linear mixed modeling publication-title: R. J. doi: 10.32614/RJ-2017-066 – volume: 175 start-page: 847 issue: 3 year: 2014 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib51 article-title: Slow lifelong growth predisposes Populus tremuloides trees to mortality publication-title: Oecologia doi: 10.1007/s00442-014-2951-5 – volume: 12 start-page: 297 year: 2010 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib79 article-title: Population, community and ecosystem effects of exotic herbivores: a growing global concern publication-title: Biol. Invasions doi: 10.1007/s10530-009-9626-x – year: 2005 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib69 – volume: 555 year: 2024 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib64 article-title: Fire severity and ungulate herbivory shape forest regeneration and recruitment after a large mixed-severity wildfire publication-title: For. Ecol. Manag. doi: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.121692 – year: 2018 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib46 publication-title: Package ‘ Dharma ’: Residual Diagn. Hierarchical (Mulit-lev. /Mixed) Regres. Models – volume: 97 start-page: 142 year: 2009 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib30 article-title: Vegetation response to a short interval between high severity wildfires in a mixed-evergreen forest publication-title: J. Ecol. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2745.2008.01456.x – volume: 438 start-page: 114 year: 2019 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib62 article-title: Relationships between tree survival, stand structure and age in trembling aspen dominated stands publication-title: For. Ecol. Manag. doi: 10.1016/j.foreco.2019.02.003 – volume: 13 start-page: 603 issue: 4 year: 2002 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib71 article-title: Equations for potential annual direct incident radiation and heat load publication-title: J. Veg. Sci. doi: 10.1111/j.1654-1103.2002.tb02087.x – volume: 299 start-page: 52 year: 2013 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib61 article-title: Long-term aspen cover change in the western US publication-title: For. Ecol. Manag. doi: 10.1016/j.foreco.2013.01.004 – year: 2024 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib26 article-title: Sustainability and drivers of Populus tremuloides regeneration and recruitment near the southwestern edge of its range publication-title: For. Int. J. For. Res. – volume: 27 start-page: 1245 issue: 5 year: 2018 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib73 article-title: The role of hybridization during ecological divergence of southwestern white pine (Pinus strobiformis) and limber pine (P. flexilis) publication-title: Mol. Ecol. doi: 10.1111/mec.14505 – volume: 60 start-page: 345 issue: 2 year: 2014 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib91 article-title: A functional framework for improved management of western north American aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) publication-title: For. Sci. – volume: 9 start-page: 227 issue: 2 year: 2006 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib12 article-title: Was Aldo Leopold right about the Kaibab Deer herd? publication-title: Ecosystems doi: 10.1007/s10021-005-0100-z – start-page: 68 year: 2017 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib42 article-title: New Mexico’s forest resources, 2008–2014. Resour. Bull. RMRS-RB-24 – volume: 19 start-page: 1526 issue: 5 year: 2013 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib3 article-title: Drought characteristics' role in widespread aspen forest mortality across Colorado, USA publication-title: Glob. Change Biol. doi: 10.1111/gcb.12146 – volume: 313 year: 2022 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib68 article-title: Identifying microclimate tree seedling refugia in post-wildfire landscapes publication-title: Agric. For. Meteorol. doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108741 – volume: 45 start-page: 276 year: 2014 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib50 article-title: Survey for Armillaria by plant association in Northern Arizona publication-title: J. Ariz. Nev. Acad. Sci. – volume: 14 start-page: 369 issue: 7 year: 2016 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib53 article-title: Changing disturbance regimes, ecological memory, and forest resilience publication-title: Front. Ecol. Environ. doi: 10.1002/fee.1311 – volume: 368 issue: 6494 year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib72 article-title: Pervasive shifts in forest dynamics in a changing world publication-title: Science doi: 10.1126/science.aaz9463 – volume: 334 start-page: 43 year: 2014 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib106 article-title: Effectiveness of fuel reduction treatments: assessing metrics of forest resiliency and wildfire severity after the Wallow Fire, AZ publication-title: For. Ecol. Manag. doi: 10.1016/j.foreco.2014.08.026 – volume: 37 start-page: 2227 year: 2007 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib67 article-title: A stand-replacing fire history in upper montane forests of the southern Rocky Mountains publication-title: Can. J. For. Res. doi: 10.1139/X07-079 – ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib84 – volume: 8 start-page: 1010 issue: 9 year: 2005 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib54 article-title: Running to stand still: adaptation and the response of plants to rapid climate change publication-title: Ecol. Lett. doi: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00796.x – volume: 9 year: 2021 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib85 article-title: Niche shifts from trees to fecundity to recruitment that determine species response to climate change publication-title: Front. Ecol. Evol. doi: 10.3389/fevo.2021.719141 – volume: 117 start-page: 29720 issue: 47 year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib10 article-title: Forest and woodland replacement patterns following drought-related mortality publication-title: Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2002314117 – start-page: 193 year: 2001 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib92 article-title: Aspen fencing in northern Arizona: a 15-year perspective – volume: 31 start-page: 739 year: 2001 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib97 article-title: Above- and below-ground effects of aspen clonal regeneration and succession to conifers publication-title: Can. J. For. Res. doi: 10.1139/x01-001 – volume: 12 start-page: 6583 issue: 1 year: 2021 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib49 article-title: Forest fires and climate-induced tree range shifts in the western US publication-title: Nat. Commun. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-26838-z – volume: 6 issue: 60 year: 2021 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib65 article-title: performance: an R package for assessment, comparison and testing of statistical models publication-title: J. Open Source Softw. doi: 10.21105/joss.03139 – volume: 28 start-page: 1459 issue: 6 year: 2018 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib81 article-title: Forest restoration as a strategy to mitigate climate impacts on wildfire, vegetation, and water in semiarid forests publication-title: Ecol. Appl. doi: 10.1002/eap.1746 – volume: 23 start-page: 168 year: 2014 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib11 article-title: Early indicators of change: divergent climate envelopes between tree life stages imply range shifts in the western United States publication-title: Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. doi: 10.1111/geb.12109 – volume: 69 start-page: 334 issue: 3 year: 2023 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib25 article-title: Building ecosystem resilience and adaptive cpacity: a systematic review of aspen ecology and management in the Southwest publication-title: For. Sci. – volume: 23 start-page: 2893 issue: 9 year: 2021 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib24 article-title: Oystershell scale: an emerging invasive threat to aspen in the Southwestern US publication-title: Biol. Invasions doi: 10.1007/s10530-021-02545-0 – start-page: 53 year: 2008 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib33 article-title: Aspen decline on the Coconino National Forest – volume: 119 start-page: 520 year: 2021 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib78 article-title: Pyrosilviculture needed for landscape resilience of dry western United States forests publication-title: J. For. – start-page: 5 year: 2001 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib9 article-title: Landscape dynamics of aspen and conifer forests – volume: 375 start-page: 20190105 year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib105 article-title: Climate change, ecosystems and abrupt change: science priorities publication-title: Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B doi: 10.1098/rstb.2019.0105 – volume: 45 start-page: 1587 year: 2015 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib113 article-title: Historical high severity fire patches in mixed-conifer forests publication-title: Can. J. For. Res. doi: 10.1139/cjfr-2015-0128 – start-page: 55 year: 2019 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib56 article-title: Guidelines for aspen restoration in Utah with applicability to the Intermountain West. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-390 – volume: 32 start-page: 476 year: 1951 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib27 article-title: An upland forest continuum in the prairie-forest border region of Wisconsin publication-title: Ecology doi: 10.2307/1931725 – volume: 31 start-page: 2259 issue: 11 year: 2022 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib98 article-title: Dry forest decline is driven by both declining recruitment and increasing mortality in response to warm, dry conditions publication-title: Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. doi: 10.1111/geb.13582 – volume: 362 start-page: 46 year: 2016 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib99 article-title: Elevated Rocky Mountain elk numbers prevent positive effects of fire on quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) recruitment publication-title: For. Ecol. Manag. doi: 10.1016/j.foreco.2015.11.020 – volume: 10 issue: 9 year: 2019 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib104 article-title: Using climate projections to assess ecosystem vulnerability at scales relevant to managers publication-title: Ecosphere doi: 10.1002/ecs2.2854 – volume: 33 start-page: 1169 year: 2003 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib37 article-title: An analysis of sucker regeneration of trembling aspen publication-title: Can. J. For. Res. doi: 10.1139/x03-053 – volume: 120 issue: 11 year: 2023 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib28 article-title: Reduced fire severity offers near-term buffer to climate-driven declines in conifer resilience across the western United States publication-title: Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2208120120 – volume: 7 year: 2016 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib36 article-title: Are historical fire regimes compatible with future climate? Implications for forest restoration publication-title: Ecosphere doi: 10.1002/ecs2.1471 – volume: 258 start-page: 2353 year: 2009 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib87 article-title: Aspen, climate, and sudden decline in western USA publication-title: For. Ecol. Manag. doi: 10.1016/j.foreco.2009.06.005 – volume: 7 start-page: 88 year: 2011 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib66 article-title: Historical stand-replacing fire in Upper Montane forests of the madrean Sky Islands and Mogollon Plateau, Southwestern USA publication-title: Fire Ecol. doi: 10.4996/fireecology.0703088 – volume: 336 start-page: 148 year: 2015 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib80 article-title: Post-fire forest dynamics and climate variability affect spatial and temporal properties of spruce beetle outbreaks on a sky island mountain range publication-title: For. Ecol. Manag. doi: 10.1016/j.foreco.2014.10.021 – volume: 7 start-page: 395 year: 2017 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib95 article-title: Forest disturbances under climate change publication-title: Nat. Clim. Chang doi: 10.1038/nclimate3303 – volume: 380 start-page: 321 year: 2016 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib57 article-title: Observed and anticipated impacts of drought on forest insects and diseases in the United States publication-title: For. Ecol. Manag. doi: 10.1016/j.foreco.2016.04.051 – volume: 7 start-page: 1 issue: 8 year: 2016 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib31 article-title: Regeneration of montane forests 24 years after the 1988 Yellowstone fires: a fire catalyzed shift in lower treelines? publication-title: Ecosphere doi: 10.1002/ecs2.1410 – volume: 112 start-page: 13261 year: 2015 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib15 article-title: Medieval warming initiated exceptionally large wildfire outbreaks in the Rocky Mountains publication-title: Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1500796112 – year: 2024 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib6 article-title: Response of aspen to a warming climate along a latitudinal gradient in the Rocky Mountains, USA publication-title: Can. J. For. Res. – volume: 282 year: 2012 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib114 article-title: Populus tremuloides mortality near the southwestern edge of its range publication-title: For. Ecol. Manag. doi: 10.1016/j.foreco.2012.07.004 – volume: 274 start-page: 91 year: 2012 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib44 article-title: The influences of climate on aspen dieback publication-title: For. Ecol. Manag. doi: 10.1016/j.foreco.2012.02.009 – volume: 110 start-page: 2929 issue: 12 year: 2022 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib90 article-title: Rocky Mountain forests are poised to recover following bark beetle outbreaks but with altered composition publication-title: J. Ecol. doi: 10.1111/1365-2745.13999 – ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib109 – volume: 44 start-page: 1227 issue: 10 year: 2014 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib55 article-title: Short- and long-term growth characteristics associated with tree mortality in southwestern mixed conifer forests publication-title: Can. J. For. Res. doi: 10.1139/cjfr-2014-0186 – volume: 14 start-page: 12 year: 2018 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib103 article-title: Forest structure and regeneration response 15 years after wildfire in a ponderosa pine and mixed-conifer ecotone, Arizona, USA publication-title: Fire Ecol. doi: 10.1186/s42408-018-0011-y – year: 2019 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib13 article-title: ncf: spatial covariance functions publication-title: R. Package – volume: 98 start-page: 2698 issue: 10 year: 2017 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib45 article-title: Summer and winter drought drive the initiation and spread of spruce beetle outbreak publication-title: Ecology doi: 10.1002/ecy.1963 – volume: 120 start-page: 660 year: 2022 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib32 article-title: Characterizing divergent experiences with the same wildfire: insights from a survey of households in evacuation, postfire flood risk, and unaffected areas after the 2019 Museum Fire publication-title: J. For. – volume: 26 start-page: 1142 issue: 9 year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib83 article-title: Combining US and Canadian forest inventories to assess habitat suitability and migration potential of 25 tree species under climate change publication-title: Divers. Distrib. doi: 10.1111/ddi.13078 – year: 1985 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib94 article-title: Vegetative regeneration. P. 29–33 in Aspen: ecology and management in the western United States – volume: 32 issue: 8 year: 2022 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib39 article-title: Forest restoration treatments increased growth and did not change survival of ponderosa pines in severe drought, Arizona publication-title: Ecol. Appl. doi: 10.1002/eap.2717 – volume: 46 start-page: 326 issue: 1 year: 2019 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib1 article-title: Global emergence of anthropogenic climate change in fire weather indices publication-title: Geophys. Res. Lett. doi: 10.1029/2018GL080959 – ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib16 – year: 2001 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib70 article-title: Quaking Aspen and the human experience: dimensions, issues, and challenges – volume: 167 start-page: 1123 year: 2006 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib86 article-title: Empirical analyses of plant-climate relationships for the western United States publication-title: Int. J. Plant. Sci. doi: 10.1086/507711 – volume: 20 start-page: 159 year: 1971 ident: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326_bib101 article-title: Geographic variation in Pinus flexilis and Pinus strobiformis and its bearing on their taxonomic status publication-title: Silvae Genet. |
| SSID | ssj0005548 |
| Score | 2.458005 |
| Snippet | Changes in forest structure and shifts in tree species composition have occurred globally due to climate change and altered disturbance regimes. With climate... |
| SourceID | proquest crossref elsevier |
| SourceType | Aggregation Database Index Database Publisher |
| StartPage | 122326 |
| SubjectTerms | administrative management Arizona class climate climate change drought Ecological disturbance forest ecology forests Montane forests mortality overstory Populus tremuloides Southwestern United States species species diversity Tree mortality Tree regeneration trees ungulates wildfires |
| Title | Multi-decadal aspen dynamics show recruitment bottleneck across complex mountain community |
| URI | https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122326 https://www.proquest.com/docview/3153844922 |
| Volume | 572 |
| WOSCitedRecordID | wos001341281200001&url=https%3A%2F%2Fcvtisr.summon.serialssolutions.com%2F%23%21%2Fsearch%3Fho%3Df%26include.ft.matches%3Dt%26l%3Dnull%26q%3D |
| hasFullText | 1 |
| inHoldings | 1 |
| isFullTextHit | |
| isPrint | |
| journalDatabaseRights | – providerCode: PRVESC databaseName: Elsevier SD Freedom Collection Journals 2021 issn: 0378-1127 databaseCode: AIEXJ dateStart: 20151001 customDbUrl: isFulltext: true dateEnd: 99991231 titleUrlDefault: https://www.sciencedirect.com omitProxy: false ssIdentifier: ssj0005548 providerName: Elsevier |
| link | http://cvtisr.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/link/0/eLvHCXMwtV1db9MwFLVKB4gXBAPE-JKREC-Rq8Z1ZvtxmjoNmAqCTqp4sRzbERtbEpJ0tP8eO44bxkCMB16iKMrnvUfXN77n-gDwaqzJZMx4jKh0EmYqUSglJEWEJERR7aIma8Um6GzGFgv-YTAoQy_MxRnNc7Za8fK_utoes852rbP_4O7NTe0Bu2-dbrfW7XZ7Lce3LbVIGyW1WwegLk0eaa87X0f1l-J7ZINctTzx9HKnJGYHHqO-RrIdMT3J3Kyic6ciIT1N3fWQNJcKwE7Ss24io_o1nM6vMGk-NYXW0pPnO35-T8r-WOhu9vXd-sz0s7X7VbH0-lStFHbVc5IPl1nWXdJS8T05MMxZYOKa93zXZujVcv-usV8VIMThhOKoHMU2X8G76LfR3U80nI5sOm8_b-Tu3J3fj2ahgj97Lw6Oj47EfLqYvy6_Iacz5urxnejKDbCFacLZEGztvZku3va0oKRVXNu8YWi3bDmBVx_8p3Tml4G9zVbm98Dd7jcD7nl43AcDk2-DW154dL0Nbnv3VesH4PMlvMAWLzDgBTq8wJ_wAnu8QI8X2OEFBrzADV4eguOD6Xz_EHWCG0hhxhqkmJImxZlKdlWqM5JSmy1zmmLMNCfapi5xrCgjSWYNo2UquSv-Z-PYKJwRrCePwDAvcvMYQKZ0JrFhXNr80U1CSDlJpcFSMp4YyXcACnYTpV9XRQTC4anwdhbOzsLbeQfQYFzR5YY-5xMWHH-58mXwhbCh09XDZG6KZS0mbrS3H4jxk2uc8xTc6aH8DAybammeg5vqojmpqxcdjH4AEtKU2w |
| linkProvider | Elsevier |
| openUrl | ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info%3Aofi%2Fenc%3AUTF-8&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fsummon.serialssolutions.com&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Multi-decadal+aspen+dynamics+show+recruitment+bottleneck+across+complex+mountain+community&rft.jtitle=Forest+ecology+and+management&rft.au=Stoddard%2C+Michael+T&rft.au=Rodman%2C+Kyle+C&rft.au=Crouch%2C+Connor+D&rft.au=Huffman%2C+David+W&rft.date=2024-11-15&rft.issn=0378-1127&rft.volume=572+p.122326-&rft_id=info:doi/10.1016%2Fj.foreco.2024.122326&rft.externalDBID=NO_FULL_TEXT |
| thumbnail_l | http://covers-cdn.summon.serialssolutions.com/index.aspx?isbn=/lc.gif&issn=0378-1127&client=summon |
| thumbnail_m | http://covers-cdn.summon.serialssolutions.com/index.aspx?isbn=/mc.gif&issn=0378-1127&client=summon |
| thumbnail_s | http://covers-cdn.summon.serialssolutions.com/index.aspx?isbn=/sc.gif&issn=0378-1127&client=summon |