Current and future patterns of forest fire occurrence in China

Forest fire patterns are likely to be altered by climate change. We used boosted regression trees modelling and the MODIS Global Fire Atlas dataset (2003–15) to characterise relative influences of nine natural and human variables on fire patterns across five forest zones in China. The same modelling...

Celý popis

Uloženo v:
Podrobná bibliografie
Vydáno v:International journal of wildland fire Ročník 29; číslo 2; s. 104 - 119
Hlavní autoři: Wu, Zhiwei, He, Hong S., Keane, Robert E., Zhu, Zhiliang, Wang, Yeqiao, Shan, Yanlong
Médium: Journal Article
Jazyk:angličtina
Vydáno: Roslyn CSIRO 01.01.2020
Témata:
Climate change
Climate models
Cold
Coniferous forests
Datasets
Deciduous forests
Forest & brush fires
Forest fires
General circulation models
Productivity
Regression analysis
Statistical analysis
Topography
Variability
Vegetation
China
ISSN:1049-8001, 1448-5516
On-line přístup:Získat plný text
Tagy: Přidat tag
Žádné tagy, Buďte první, kdo vytvoří štítek k tomuto záznamu!
Popis
Shrnutí:Forest fire patterns are likely to be altered by climate change. We used boosted regression trees modelling and the MODIS Global Fire Atlas dataset (2003–15) to characterise relative influences of nine natural and human variables on fire patterns across five forest zones in China. The same modelling approach was used to project fire patterns for 2041–60 and 2061–80 based on two general circulation models for two representative concentration pathways scenarios. The results showed that, for the baseline period (2003–15) and across the five forest zones, climate variables explained 37.4–43.5% of the variability in fire occurrence and human activities were responsible for explaining an additional 27.0–36.5% of variability. The fire frequency was highest in the subtropical evergreen broadleaf forests zone in southern China, and lowest in the warm temperate deciduous broadleaved mixed-forests zone in northern China. Projection results showed an increasing trend in fire occurrence probability ranging from 43.3 to 99.9% and 41.4 to 99.3% across forest zones under the two climate models and two representative concentration pathways scenarios relative to the current climate (2003–15). Increased fire occurrence is projected to shift from southern to central-northern China for both 2041–60 and 2061–80.
Bibliografie:ObjectType-Article-1
SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
ObjectType-Feature-2
content type line 14
ISSN:1049-8001
1448-5516
DOI:10.1071/WF19039