Geospatial assessment of climate variability and drought patterns: a case study from Pakistan Geospatial assessment of climate variability and drought patterns: a case study from Pakistan

Drought substantially threatens Pakistan's agriculture, livestock, and environmental health, specifically in the Thal region. Climate change aggravates drought through extreme temperatures and unpredictable rainfall. This study aims to identify drought-prone districts in Bhakkar, Layyah, Khusha...

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Published in:	Theoretical and applied climatology Vol. 156; no. 3; p. 185
Main Authors:	Hassan, Sher Shah, Goheer, Muhammad Arif, Farah, Humera, Hafeez, Faiza, Sheraz, Khurram, Fahad, Javaria, Tariq, Aqil
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	Vienna Springer Vienna 01.03.2025 Springer Nature B.V
Subjects:	Adaptive management Agriculture Aquatic Pollution Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution Atmospheric Sciences case studies climate Climate change Climate variability Climatology Correlation analysis Drought Drought conditions Drought index Drought monitoring Drought patterns Earth and Environmental Science Earth Sciences Environmental assessment Environmental health Environmental monitoring geospatial data processing Hydrologic data Livestock MODIS Monsoon rainfall monsoon season Monsoons Monthly precipitation Normalized difference vegetative index Pakistan Precipitation Precipitation data Rain Rainfall Temperature Temperature data Temperature extremes Temperature variations Variability Vegetation Waste Water Technology Water Management Water Pollution Control Pakistan
ISSN:	0177-798X, 1434-4483
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Abstract	Drought substantially threatens Pakistan's agriculture, livestock, and environmental health, specifically in the Thal region. Climate change aggravates drought through extreme temperatures and unpredictable rainfall. This study aims to identify drought-prone districts in Bhakkar, Layyah, Khushab, and Muzaffargarh by correlating climatic parameters with drought vulnerability. Monthly precipitation data was sourced from CHRIPS, while district-level temperature data was obtained from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) from 1981 to 2020. Vegetation data for six specific years (2001–02, 2004, 2006, and 2019–20) was analyzed using the MODIS product MO13Q1, which offers spatial and temporal resolutions of 250 m and 16 days, respectively. The highest drought severity was noted in 2001 and 2002, severely affecting Muzaffargarh, Layyah, Bhakkar, and Khushab. Moderate drought conditions were observed in 2004 and 2006, with slight improvements in Bhakkar and Layyah. Conversely, 2019 and 2020 saw low or no drought, marked by significant improvements in vegetative health due to increased rainfall. In 2001, higher monsoon temperatures were linked to increased rainfall, affecting STVI and NDVI values. In 2002, concentrated rainfall from July to September showed significant correlations with STVI (0.01) and NDVI (0.05), impacting early-year indices. During the moderate drought conditions of 2006, positive correlations emerged between rainfall and temperature, influencing STVI (0.01) and NDVI (0.05), while temperature correlated with DVI (0.05). In 2019–2020, high monsoon rainfall affected indices differently due to seasonal temperature variations. Pearson’s correlation analysis revealed significant relationships between rainfall and temperature with STVI (0.01) and NDVI (0.05), as well as between temperature and DVI (0.05). This study emphasizes the necessity for ongoing drought monitoring and adaptive management strategies in the Thal region to mitigate the impacts of climate variability on agriculture and vegetation health.
AbstractList	Drought substantially threatens Pakistan's agriculture, livestock, and environmental health, specifically in the Thal region. Climate change aggravates drought through extreme temperatures and unpredictable rainfall. This study aims to identify drought-prone districts in Bhakkar, Layyah, Khushab, and Muzaffargarh by correlating climatic parameters with drought vulnerability. Monthly precipitation data was sourced from CHRIPS, while district-level temperature data was obtained from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) from 1981 to 2020. Vegetation data for six specific years (2001–02, 2004, 2006, and 2019–20) was analyzed using the MODIS product MO13Q1, which offers spatial and temporal resolutions of 250 m and 16 days, respectively. The highest drought severity was noted in 2001 and 2002, severely affecting Muzaffargarh, Layyah, Bhakkar, and Khushab. Moderate drought conditions were observed in 2004 and 2006, with slight improvements in Bhakkar and Layyah. Conversely, 2019 and 2020 saw low or no drought, marked by significant improvements in vegetative health due to increased rainfall. In 2001, higher monsoon temperatures were linked to increased rainfall, affecting STVI and NDVI values. In 2002, concentrated rainfall from July to September showed significant correlations with STVI (0.01) and NDVI (0.05), impacting early-year indices. During the moderate drought conditions of 2006, positive correlations emerged between rainfall and temperature, influencing STVI (0.01) and NDVI (0.05), while temperature correlated with DVI (0.05). In 2019–2020, high monsoon rainfall affected indices differently due to seasonal temperature variations. Pearson’s correlation analysis revealed significant relationships between rainfall and temperature with STVI (0.01) and NDVI (0.05), as well as between temperature and DVI (0.05). This study emphasizes the necessity for ongoing drought monitoring and adaptive management strategies in the Thal region to mitigate the impacts of climate variability on agriculture and vegetation health. Drought substantially threatens Pakistan's agriculture, livestock, and environmental health, specifically in the Thal region. Climate change aggravates drought through extreme temperatures and unpredictable rainfall. This study aims to identify drought-prone districts in Bhakkar, Layyah, Khushab, and Muzaffargarh by correlating climatic parameters with drought vulnerability. Monthly precipitation data was sourced from CHRIPS, while district-level temperature data was obtained from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) from 1981 to 2020. Vegetation data for six specific years (2001–02, 2004, 2006, and 2019–20) was analyzed using the MODIS product MO13Q1, which offers spatial and temporal resolutions of 250 m and 16 days, respectively. The highest drought severity was noted in 2001 and 2002, severely affecting Muzaffargarh, Layyah, Bhakkar, and Khushab. Moderate drought conditions were observed in 2004 and 2006, with slight improvements in Bhakkar and Layyah. Conversely, 2019 and 2020 saw low or no drought, marked by significant improvements in vegetative health due to increased rainfall. In 2001, higher monsoon temperatures were linked to increased rainfall, affecting STVI and NDVI values. In 2002, concentrated rainfall from July to September showed significant correlations with STVI (0.01) and NDVI (0.05), impacting early-year indices. During the moderate drought conditions of 2006, positive correlations emerged between rainfall and temperature, influencing STVI (0.01) and NDVI (0.05), while temperature correlated with DVI (0.05). In 2019–2020, high monsoon rainfall affected indices differently due to seasonal temperature variations. Pearson’s correlation analysis revealed significant relationships between rainfall and temperature with STVI (0.01) and NDVI (0.05), as well as between temperature and DVI (0.05). This study emphasizes the necessity for ongoing drought monitoring and adaptive management strategies in the Thal region to mitigate the impacts of climate variability on agriculture and vegetation health.
ArticleNumber	185
Author	Farah, Humera Hafeez, Faiza Fahad, Javaria Hassan, Sher Shah Goheer, Muhammad Arif Sheraz, Khurram Tariq, Aqil
Author_xml	– sequence: 1 givenname: Sher Shah surname: Hassan fullname: Hassan, Sher Shah email: shershah538@gmail.com organization: Global Climate-Change Impact Studies Centre – sequence: 2 givenname: Muhammad Arif surname: Goheer fullname: Goheer, Muhammad Arif organization: Global Climate-Change Impact Studies Centre – sequence: 3 givenname: Humera surname: Farah fullname: Farah, Humera organization: Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Bahria University – sequence: 4 givenname: Faiza surname: Hafeez fullname: Hafeez, Faiza organization: Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Bahria University – sequence: 5 givenname: Khurram surname: Sheraz fullname: Sheraz, Khurram organization: Department of Agricultural Engineering, University of Engineering & Technology – sequence: 6 givenname: Javaria surname: Fahad fullname: Fahad, Javaria organization: Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Bahria University – sequence: 7 givenname: Aqil surname: Tariq fullname: Tariq, Aqil organization: Department of Wildlife, Fisheries and Aquaculture, College of Forest Resources, Mississippi State University
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Snippet	Drought substantially threatens Pakistan's agriculture, livestock, and environmental health, specifically in the Thal region. Climate change aggravates drought...
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SubjectTerms	Adaptive management Agriculture Aquatic Pollution Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution Atmospheric Sciences case studies climate Climate change Climate variability Climatology Correlation analysis Drought Drought conditions Drought index Drought monitoring Drought patterns Earth and Environmental Science Earth Sciences Environmental assessment Environmental health Environmental monitoring geospatial data processing Hydrologic data Livestock MODIS Monsoon rainfall monsoon season Monsoons Monthly precipitation Normalized difference vegetative index Pakistan Precipitation Precipitation data Rain Rainfall Temperature Temperature data Temperature extremes Temperature variations Variability Vegetation Waste Water Technology Water Management Water Pollution Control
Subtitle	Geospatial assessment of climate variability and drought patterns: a case study from Pakistan
Title	Geospatial assessment of climate variability and drought patterns: a case study from Pakistan
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