Future of sugarcane in South America: climate adaptation based on CMIP6 scenarios
This article tackles the challenge of adapting the climatic zoning of sugarcane in South America to the climate changes projected by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Climate change poses a serious threat to the viability of sugarcane cultivation across the continent. Air te...
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| Vydané v: | Acta geophysica Ročník 73; číslo 6; s. 6335 - 6347 |
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| Hlavní autori: | , , , , , |
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| Jazyk: | English |
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Cham
Springer International Publishing
01.12.2025
Springer Nature B.V |
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| ISSN: | 1895-7455, 1895-6572, 1895-7455 |
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| Abstract | This article tackles the challenge of adapting the climatic zoning of sugarcane in South America to the climate changes projected by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Climate change poses a serious threat to the viability of sugarcane cultivation across the continent. Air temperature and daily rainfall data for the current climate scenario were obtained from the WorldClim version 2.1 platform (FICK; HIJMANS, 2017) in GeoTiff format, representing the latest climatological normal. Data for future climate scenarios were acquired from the WorldClim 2.1 platform using the IPSL-CM6A-LR model. These data cover four periods 2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100. Additionally, data for four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios were utilized, namely: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5, which are sequentially from the most optimistic to the most pessimistic. Sugarcane suitability zoning for South America was created using QGIS software, with the process automated using Python scripts. The climatic zoning for the current period presented nine climatic classes, with a predominance of the “Non-cultivated Areas” class (40.3%), followed by the “Unsuitable due to Thermal Excess and Water Deficiency” class (22.6%), and in fourth place the “Suitable” class (9.0%). The SSP5-8.5 scenario alters the climatic zoning for sugarcane in all periods. Suitability class decreases in all periods, with an average for the periods of 8.4% (2021–2040), 7.0% (2041–2060), 6.4% (2061–2080), 5.0% (2081–2100). The SSP2-4.5 scenario presents more plausible and likely results for future scenarios. It shows a potential increase of 8% in the “Unsuitable” class due to thermal excess and water deficit, with an average of 30.7%. Ultimately, our findings show that climate change may lead to a reduction in suitable areas for sugarcane cultivation, especially in the long term (2081–2100). |
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| AbstractList | This article tackles the challenge of adapting the climatic zoning of sugarcane in South America to the climate changes projected by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Climate change poses a serious threat to the viability of sugarcane cultivation across the continent. Air temperature and daily rainfall data for the current climate scenario were obtained from the WorldClim version 2.1 platform (FICK; HIJMANS, 2017) in GeoTiff format, representing the latest climatological normal. Data for future climate scenarios were acquired from the WorldClim 2.1 platform using the IPSL-CM6A-LR model. These data cover four periods 2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100. Additionally, data for four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios were utilized, namely: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5, which are sequentially from the most optimistic to the most pessimistic. Sugarcane suitability zoning for South America was created using QGIS software, with the process automated using Python scripts. The climatic zoning for the current period presented nine climatic classes, with a predominance of the “Non-cultivated Areas” class (40.3%), followed by the “Unsuitable due to Thermal Excess and Water Deficiency” class (22.6%), and in fourth place the “Suitable” class (9.0%). The SSP5-8.5 scenario alters the climatic zoning for sugarcane in all periods. Suitability class decreases in all periods, with an average for the periods of 8.4% (2021–2040), 7.0% (2041–2060), 6.4% (2061–2080), 5.0% (2081–2100). The SSP2-4.5 scenario presents more plausible and likely results for future scenarios. It shows a potential increase of 8% in the “Unsuitable” class due to thermal excess and water deficit, with an average of 30.7%. Ultimately, our findings show that climate change may lead to a reduction in suitable areas for sugarcane cultivation, especially in the long term (2081–2100). |
| Author | de Oliveira Aparecido, Lucas Eduardo Lorençone, Pedro Antonio de Souza Schlick, Genivaldo David Torsoni, Guilherme Botega de Souza Rolim, Glauco Lorençone, João Antonio |
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| SubjectTerms | Agricultural production Agriculture Air temperature Climate Climate adaptation Climate change Climatological normals Consumption Cultivation Daily rainfall Earth and Environmental Science Earth Sciences Emissions Ethanol Future climates Geophysics/Geodesy Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences Greenhouse gases Hydrologic data Python Rainfall Rainfall data Renewable resources Research Article - Atmospheric & Space Sciences Structural Geology Sugarcane Temperature Water Water deficit Zoning |
| Title | Future of sugarcane in South America: climate adaptation based on CMIP6 scenarios |
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