Recurrent neural networks for hierarchical time series forecasting: An application to the S&P 500 market value

This paper investigates the use of Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), specifically Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) architectures, for hierarchical time series forecasting in financial markets. Using market value data from the top 70 companies in the S&P 500 index, we...

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Vydané v:	Physica A Ročník 678; s. 130869
Hlavní autori:	Munyao, Jackson Ndoto, Oluoch, Lillian Achola, Iftikhar, Hasnain, Rodrigues, Paulo Canas
Médium:	Journal Article
Jazyk:	English
Vydavateľské údaje:	Elsevier B.V 15.11.2025
Predmet:	ARIMA Forecasting Hierarchical time series Hierarchical time series forecasting LSTM and GRU Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) S&P 500 S&P 500 ARIMA LSTM and GRU Hierarchical time series forecasting Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) Forecasting Hierarchical time series
ISSN:	0378-4371
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Popis
Shrnutí:	This paper investigates the use of Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), specifically Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) architectures, for hierarchical time series forecasting in financial markets. Using market value data from the top 70 companies in the S&P 500 index, we evaluate forecasts across three hierarchical levels: company, sector, and market total, applying various reconciliation strategies to ensure coherence. The proposed framework is compared with traditional models (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average and Exponential Smoothing) under multiple reconciliation methods, including Middle-Out with forecast proportions. Results show that RNN-based models outperform statistical benchmarks in terms of accuracy across levels, particularly when combined with Middle-Out reconciliation. We also discuss practical aspects such as computational cost and implementation trade-offs, highlighting the relevance of deep learning methods for structured financial forecasting tasks.
ISSN:	0378-4371
DOI:	10.1016/j.physa.2025.130869