Simulation of United States Mesoscale Convective Systems using GFDL’s New High-Resolution General Circulation Model

Accurate representation of mesoscale scale convective systems (MCSs) in climate models is of vital importance to understanding global energy, water cycles, and extreme weather. In this study, we evaluate the simulated MCS features over the United States from the newly developed GFDL global high-reso...

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Published in:	Journal of climate Vol. 36; no. 19; pp. 6967 - 6990
Main Authors:	Dong, Wenhao, Zhao, Ming, Ming, Yi, Krasting, John P., Ramaswamy, V.
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	Boston American Meteorological Society 01.10.2023
Subjects:	Bias Circulation Circulation patterns Climate models Datasets Diurnal cycle Diurnal variations Extreme weather Floods General circulation models High resolution Hydrologic cycle Hydrological cycle Mesoscale convective systems Mesoscale phenomena Precipitation Rain Seasonal distribution Seasonal variations Seasonality Simulation Spatial distribution Spring Spring (season) Spring precipitation Summer Summer circulation Rocky Mountains United States > US North America
ISSN:	0894-8755, 1520-0442
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Abstract	Accurate representation of mesoscale scale convective systems (MCSs) in climate models is of vital importance to understanding global energy, water cycles, and extreme weather. In this study, we evaluate the simulated MCS features over the United States from the newly developed GFDL global high-resolution (∼50 km) AM4 model by comparing them with the observations during spring to early summer (April–June) and late summer (July–August). The results show that the spatial distribution and seasonality of occurrence and genesis frequency of MCSs are reasonably simulated over the central United States in both seasons. The model reliably reproduces the observed features of MCS duration, translation speed, and size over the central United States, as well as the favorable large-scale circulation pattern associated with MCS development over the central United States during spring and early summer. However, the model misrepresents the amplitude and the phase of the diurnal cycle of MCSs during both seasons. In addition, the spatial distribution of occurrence and genesis frequency of MCSs over the eastern United States is substantially overestimated, with larger biases in early spring and summer. Furthermore, while large-scale circulation patterns are reasonably simulated in spring and early summer, they are misrepresented in the model during summer. Finally, we examine MCS-related precipitation, finding that the model overestimates MCS-related precipitation during spring and early summer, but this bias is insufficient to explain the significant dry bias observed in total precipitation over the central United States. Nonetheless, the dry biases in MCS-associated precipitation during late summer likely contribute to the overall precipitation deficit in the model.
AbstractList	Accurate representation of mesoscale scale convective systems (MCSs) in climate models is of vital importance to understanding global energy, water cycles, and extreme weather. In this study, we evaluate the simulated MCS features over the United States from the newly developed GFDL global high-resolution (∼50 km) AM4 model by comparing them with the observations during spring to early summer (April–June) and late summer (July–August). The results show that the spatial distribution and seasonality of occurrence and genesis frequency of MCSs are reasonably simulated over the central United States in both seasons. The model reliably reproduces the observed features of MCS duration, translation speed, and size over the central United States, as well as the favorable large-scale circulation pattern associated with MCS development over the central United States during spring and early summer. However, the model misrepresents the amplitude and the phase of the diurnal cycle of MCSs during both seasons. In addition, the spatial distribution of occurrence and genesis frequency of MCSs over the eastern United States is substantially overestimated, with larger biases in early spring and summer. Furthermore, while large-scale circulation patterns are reasonably simulated in spring and early summer, they are misrepresented in the model during summer. Finally, we examine MCS-related precipitation, finding that the model overestimates MCS-related precipitation during spring and early summer, but this bias is insufficient to explain the significant dry bias observed in total precipitation over the central United States. Nonetheless, the dry biases in MCS-associated precipitation during late summer likely contribute to the overall precipitation deficit in the model.
Author	Dong, Wenhao Zhao, Ming Ming, Yi Ramaswamy, V. Krasting, John P.
Author_xml	– sequence: 1 givenname: Wenhao orcidid: 0000-0002-5662-5435 surname: Dong fullname: Dong, Wenhao organization: a Cooperative Programs for the Advancement of Earth System Science, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, b NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey – sequence: 2 givenname: Ming surname: Zhao fullname: Zhao, Ming organization: b NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey – sequence: 3 givenname: Yi surname: Ming fullname: Ming, Yi organization: b NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey – sequence: 4 givenname: John P. surname: Krasting fullname: Krasting, John P. organization: b NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey – sequence: 5 givenname: V. surname: Ramaswamy fullname: Ramaswamy, V. organization: b NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey
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Snippet	Accurate representation of mesoscale scale convective systems (MCSs) in climate models is of vital importance to understanding global energy, water cycles, and...
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SubjectTerms	Bias Circulation Circulation patterns Climate models Datasets Diurnal cycle Diurnal variations Extreme weather Floods General circulation models High resolution Hydrologic cycle Hydrological cycle Mesoscale convective systems Mesoscale phenomena Precipitation Rain Seasonal distribution Seasonal variations Seasonality Simulation Spatial distribution Spring Spring (season) Spring precipitation Summer Summer circulation
Title	Simulation of United States Mesoscale Convective Systems using GFDL’s New High-Resolution General Circulation Model
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