Dynamic-spread assessment and kink detection in the early mpox outbreak
This paper proposes a varying coefficient Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed (vSEIR) model to dynamically simulate the early mpox epidemic. We incorporate a time-varying infection rate and smallpox vaccination protection to capture real-time changes in transmission influenced by non-pharmaceutical...
Gespeichert in:
| Veröffentlicht in: | Applied mathematical modelling Jg. 143; S. 115996 |
|---|---|
| Hauptverfasser: | , , , |
| Format: | Journal Article |
| Sprache: | Englisch |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Elsevier Inc
01.07.2025
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| ISSN: | 0307-904X |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Tags: |
Tag hinzufügen
Keine Tags, Fügen Sie den ersten Tag hinzu!
|
| Abstract | This paper proposes a varying coefficient Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed (vSEIR) model to dynamically simulate the early mpox epidemic. We incorporate a time-varying infection rate and smallpox vaccination protection to capture real-time changes in transmission influenced by non-pharmaceutical interventions, setting our work apart from studies relying on fixed rates. To this end, we apply the recursive least squares algorithm with a forgetting factor for real-time identification of time-varying infection rate. The sparse Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter, tuned with leave-one-out cross-validation, captures mpox epidemic kinks via the effective reproduction number Rt obtained from the discrete vSEIR model. This allows for accurate segmentation of epidemic phases, better evaluation of intervention effectiveness, and insights that can guide preparedness for future possible outbreaks. We analyze the mpox and COVID-19 outbreaks in four countries using the proposed kink-based framework. The results show that the mpox epidemic generally entered its decline phase earlier than COVID-19, despite weaker interventions. Additionally, the early mpox epidemic exhibited more inflection points compared to the early COVID-19 pandemic, reflecting stronger non-pharmacological controls during the latter. Sensitivity analyses further indicate that mpox infections would have increased by 12% without smallpox vaccination, and data uncertainty significantly impacts Rt estimates. Finally, our proposed systematic framework can also be extended to other early outbreaks of human-to-human epidemics, especially in the absence of reliable medical data on contact rates.
•An infectious disease model with time-varying coefficient is developed for mpox modeling.•The recursive least squares algorithm with a forgetting factor is introduced into online estimation of infection rate.•The sparse Hodrick-Prescott filter tuned by leave-one-out cross-validation is utilized to capture the kinks of mpox epidemic.•Three sensitivity analyses are conducted: one on vaccine protection and two addressing data uncertainty. |
|---|---|
| AbstractList | This paper proposes a varying coefficient Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed (vSEIR) model to dynamically simulate the early mpox epidemic. We incorporate a time-varying infection rate and smallpox vaccination protection to capture real-time changes in transmission influenced by non-pharmaceutical interventions, setting our work apart from studies relying on fixed rates. To this end, we apply the recursive least squares algorithm with a forgetting factor for real-time identification of time-varying infection rate. The sparse Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter, tuned with leave-one-out cross-validation, captures mpox epidemic kinks via the effective reproduction number Rt obtained from the discrete vSEIR model. This allows for accurate segmentation of epidemic phases, better evaluation of intervention effectiveness, and insights that can guide preparedness for future possible outbreaks. We analyze the mpox and COVID-19 outbreaks in four countries using the proposed kink-based framework. The results show that the mpox epidemic generally entered its decline phase earlier than COVID-19, despite weaker interventions. Additionally, the early mpox epidemic exhibited more inflection points compared to the early COVID-19 pandemic, reflecting stronger non-pharmacological controls during the latter. Sensitivity analyses further indicate that mpox infections would have increased by 12% without smallpox vaccination, and data uncertainty significantly impacts Rt estimates. Finally, our proposed systematic framework can also be extended to other early outbreaks of human-to-human epidemics, especially in the absence of reliable medical data on contact rates.
•An infectious disease model with time-varying coefficient is developed for mpox modeling.•The recursive least squares algorithm with a forgetting factor is introduced into online estimation of infection rate.•The sparse Hodrick-Prescott filter tuned by leave-one-out cross-validation is utilized to capture the kinks of mpox epidemic.•Three sensitivity analyses are conducted: one on vaccine protection and two addressing data uncertainty. |
| ArticleNumber | 115996 |
| Author | Zhou, Jian Xu, Rui Gu, Haoran Cai, Junyang |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Junyang surname: Cai fullname: Cai, Junyang organization: Faculty of Data and Decision Science, Technion - Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa, 3200003, Israel – sequence: 2 givenname: Rui surname: Xu fullname: Xu, Rui organization: University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, 19104, United States of America – sequence: 3 givenname: Jian orcidid: 0000-0001-7835-8879 surname: Zhou fullname: Zhou, Jian email: zhou_jian@shu.edu.cn organization: School of Management, Shanghai University, Shanghai, 200444, China – sequence: 4 givenname: Haoran surname: Gu fullname: Gu, Haoran organization: Department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, T6G 2G1, Alberta, Canada |
| BookMark | eNp9z7FOwzAQgGEPRaItPACbXyDhLrGTWkyoQEGqxAISm-XaF-G2cSI7IPr2pAoz0-mG_3Tfgs1CF4ixG4QcAavbfW76Ni-gkDmiVKqasTmUUGcKxMclW6S0BwA5bnO2eTgF03qbpT6ScdykRCm1FAZuguMHHw7c0UB28F3gPvDhkziZeDzxtu9-ePc17MbwcMUuGnNMdP03l-z96fFt_ZxtXzcv6_ttZrFWQ7ZSRpUSrQNTiUZgXRbNjuoaVVlLIunQWLlyRq6UkKaoAF0F0oBwThSiwXLJcLprY5dSpEb30bcmnjSCPuv1Xo96fdbrST82d1ND42PfnqJO1lOw5HwcYdp1_p_6FyQGZkY |
| Cites_doi | 10.1016/j.chaos.2022.112630 10.1016/S1473-3099(22)00354-1 10.1109/TAC.2024.3394351 10.2471/BLT.19.242347 10.2307/2953682 10.1098/rspa.2020.0440 10.1016/j.ejor.2021.11.018 10.1016/j.chaos.2021.110922 10.1016/S0025-5564(02)00108-6 10.1177/0272989X21990391 10.1111/1462-2920.16174 10.1142/S0217979222501740 10.1111/poms.13681 10.1016/j.compbiomed.2021.104868 10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.07.039 10.1016/j.compbiomed.2018.09.021 10.1088/1402-4896/ac7ebc 10.1016/j.nima.2006.08.039 10.1007/s40808-021-01313-2 10.1016/j.jmacro.2008.01.004 10.1007/s11590-009-0156-3 10.1016/S1473-3099(22)00359-0 10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.08.008 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2022.27.24.2200448 10.1080/10835547.2002.12091070 10.1140/epjp/s13360-023-03865-x 10.1007/s40815-019-00692-0 10.1007/s40808-022-01607-z 10.1038/s41467-021-24872-5 10.1109/78.875457 10.1016/S0140-6736(23)02758-7 10.1016/j.chaos.2021.111621 |
| ContentType | Journal Article |
| Copyright | 2025 Elsevier Inc. |
| Copyright_xml | – notice: 2025 Elsevier Inc. |
| DBID | AAYXX CITATION |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996 |
| DatabaseName | CrossRef |
| DatabaseTitle | CrossRef |
| DatabaseTitleList | |
| DeliveryMethod | fulltext_linktorsrc |
| Discipline | Mathematics |
| ExternalDocumentID | 10_1016_j_apm_2025_115996 S0307904X2500071X |
| GroupedDBID | --K --M -~X .DC .~1 0R~ 1B1 1RT 1~. 1~5 23M 4.4 457 4G. 5GY 5VS 7-5 71M 8P~ 9JN AAEDT AAEDW AAIKJ AAKOC AALRI AAOAW AAQFI AAQXK AATTM AAXKI AAXUO AAYWO ABAOU ABEFU ABFNM ABJNI ABMAC ABWVN ABXDB ACDAQ ACGFS ACNNM ACRLP ACRPL ACVFH ADBBV ADCNI ADEZE ADMUD ADNMO ADTZH ADVLN AEBSH AECPX AEIPS AEKER AENEX AEUPX AEXQZ AFFNX AFJKZ AFPUW AFTJW AFXIZ AGCQF AGHFR AGQPQ AGRNS AGUBO AGYEJ AHHHB AHJVU AIEXJ AIGII AIGVJ AIIUN AIKHN AITUG AKBMS AKRWK AKYEP ALMA_UNASSIGNED_HOLDINGS AMRAJ ANKPU APXCP ARUGR ASPBG AVWKF AXJTR AZFZN BJAXD BKOJK BLXMC BNPGV CS3 EBS EFJIC EJD EO8 EO9 EP2 EP3 F5P FDB FGOYB FIRID FNPLU FYGXN G-2 G-Q GBLVA HZ~ IHE IXB J1W JJJVA KOM LG9 LY7 M26 M41 MHUIS MO0 MVM N9A O-L O9- OAUVE OK1 OZT P-8 P-9 P2P PC. Q38 R2- RIG ROL RPZ SDF SDG SES SEW SPC SPCBC SSH SST SSW SSZ T5K TN5 WH7 WUQ XJT XPP ZMT ~02 ~G- 9DU AAYXX ACLOT CITATION EFKBS EFLBG ~HD |
| ID | FETCH-LOGICAL-c179t-89a9351cd0a64f41732fbe7719375ee5d1ac58da58945a2601d605a04dd424f13 |
| ISICitedReferencesCount | 0 |
| ISICitedReferencesURI | http://www.webofscience.com/api/gateway?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=Summon&SrcAuth=ProQuest&DestLinkType=CitingArticles&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=001425164500001&url=https%3A%2F%2Fcvtisr.summon.serialssolutions.com%2F%23%21%2Fsearch%3Fho%3Df%26include.ft.matches%3Dt%26l%3Dnull%26q%3D |
| ISSN | 0307-904X |
| IngestDate | Sat Nov 29 07:52:53 EST 2025 Sat Jun 28 18:17:08 EDT 2025 |
| IsPeerReviewed | true |
| IsScholarly | true |
| Keywords | Mpox Kink vSEIR model Recursive least squares algorithm Sparse HP filter |
| Language | English |
| LinkModel | OpenURL |
| MergedId | FETCHMERGED-LOGICAL-c179t-89a9351cd0a64f41732fbe7719375ee5d1ac58da58945a2601d605a04dd424f13 |
| ORCID | 0000-0001-7835-8879 |
| ParticipantIDs | crossref_primary_10_1016_j_apm_2025_115996 elsevier_sciencedirect_doi_10_1016_j_apm_2025_115996 |
| PublicationCentury | 2000 |
| PublicationDate | July 2025 2025-07-00 |
| PublicationDateYYYYMMDD | 2025-07-01 |
| PublicationDate_xml | – month: 07 year: 2025 text: July 2025 |
| PublicationDecade | 2020 |
| PublicationTitle | Applied mathematical modelling |
| PublicationYear | 2025 |
| Publisher | Elsevier Inc |
| Publisher_xml | – name: Elsevier Inc |
| References | Witkiewicz (br0270) 2002; 23 Metz (br0260) 2009; 31 Kraemer, Tegally, Pigott, Dasgupta, Sheldon (br0300) 2022; 22 Han, Cai, Yang, Zhang, Wu, Zheng (br0370) 2021; 12 Lai, Bernstein (br0240) 2024; 69 Cai, Zhou (br0060) 2022; 164 Andrawus, Ahmad, Andrew, Yusuf, Qureshi, Denue, Abdul, Salahshour (br0110) 2024 Song, Xie, Gao (br0050) 2021; 146 Costa, Møller, Iversen, Puthusserypady (br0200) 2018; 103 Lee, Liao, Seo, Shin (br0150) 2021; 220 Jiang, Zhao, Shao (br0130) 2023; 232 Chadha, Khullar, Gulati, Chhibber, Harjai (br0160) 2022; 24 Kota (br0330) May–December 2022 Zumla, Valdoleiros, Haider, Asogun (br0010) 2022; 22 Zhang, Huang, Chen, Zhao, Wang, Yan (br0080) 2020 van den Driessche (br0170) 2017; 2 Cioffi (br0230) 1987 Miura, van Ewijk, Backer, Xiridou, Franz, de Coul (br0360) 2022; 27 Peter, Kumar, Kumari, Oguntolu, Oshinubi, Musa (br0100) 2021; 8 Hodrick, Prescott (br0250) 1997; 29 Buvat, Lazaro (br0350) 2006; 569 Shoaib, Haider, Raja, Nisar (br0380) 2022; 36 Liao, Lan, Fan, Kelly, Innes, Liao (br0220) 2021; 138 Perakis, Singhvi, Skali Lami, Thayaparan (br0140) 2023; 32 Choi, Jung, Kim (br0280) 2019; 27 Merched, Sayed (br0190) 2000; 48 Remigijus, Julius, Andreas (br0290) 2010; 4 Lu, Borgonovo (br0340) 2023; 304 Angeli, Neofotistos, Mattheakis, Kaxiras (br0210) 2022; 154 James, Salomon, Buckee, Menzies (br0020) 2021; 41 Peter, Oguntolu (br0310) 2022; 97 Silva, de Souza, Flores, Weiblen, do Carmo (br0320) 2023; 95 (br0030) 2024; 403 Van den Driessche, Watmough (br0180) 2002; 180 Peter, Abidemi, Ojo, Ayoola (br0090) 2023; 138 Peter, Madubueze, Ojo, Oguntolu, Ayoola (br0120) 2023; 9 Yan, Zhu, Gu, Huang, Sun, Zhang (br0040) 2021; 477 Grant, Nguyen, Breban (br0070) 2020; 98 Kota (10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0330) 2022 Cai (10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0060) 2022; 164 Van den Driessche (10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0180) 2002; 180 Cioffi (10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0230) 1987 Kraemer (10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0300) 2022; 22 Han (10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0370) 2021; 12 Andrawus (10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0110) 2024 Perakis (10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0140) 2023; 32 Witkiewicz (10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0270) 2002; 23 Lee (10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0150) 2021; 220 Merched (10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0190) 2000; 48 Zumla (10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0010) 2022; 22 Grant (10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0070) 2020; 98 Miura (10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0360) 2022; 27 Jiang (10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0130) 2023; 232 Chadha (10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0160) 2022; 24 Hodrick (10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0250) 1997; 29 Buvat (10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0350) 2006; 569 Lai (10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0240) 2024; 69 Silva (10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0320) 2023; 95 van den Driessche (10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0170) 2017; 2 Angeli (10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0210) 2022; 154 James (10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0020) 2021; 41 Costa (10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0200) 2018; 103 Choi (10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0280) 2019; 27 Yan (10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0040) 2021; 477 Peter (10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0120) 2023; 9 Zhang (10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0080) (10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0030) 2024; 403 Metz (10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0260) 2009; 31 Peter (10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0100) 2021; 8 Peter (10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0090) 2023; 138 Lu (10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0340) 2023; 304 Remigijus (10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0290) 2010; 4 Peter (10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0310) 2022; 97 Shoaib (10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0380) 2022; 36 Song (10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0050) 2021; 146 Liao (10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0220) 2021; 138 |
| References_xml | – volume: 95 year: 2023 ident: br0320 article-title: Mpox in northeast Brazil: spatiotemporal analysis and predictors associated with confirmed diagnosis publication-title: J. Med. Virol. – volume: 220 start-page: 158 year: 2021 end-page: 180 ident: br0150 article-title: Sparse HP filter: finding kinks in the COVID-19 contact rate publication-title: J. Econom. – volume: 24 start-page: 4547 year: 2022 end-page: 4560 ident: br0160 article-title: Insights into the monkeypox virus: making of another pandemic within the pandemic? publication-title: Environ. Microbiol. – volume: 138 year: 2021 ident: br0220 article-title: SIRVD-DL: a COVID-19 deep learning prediction model based on time-dependent SIRVD publication-title: Comput. Biol. Med. – volume: 12 start-page: 1 year: 2021 end-page: 10 ident: br0370 article-title: Time-varying optimization of COVID-19 vaccine prioritization in the context of limited vaccination capacity publication-title: Nat. Commun. – volume: 48 start-page: 3000 year: 2000 end-page: 3010 ident: br0190 article-title: Order-recursive RLS Laguerre adaptive filtering publication-title: IEEE Trans. Signal Process. – volume: 69 start-page: 7646 year: 2024 end-page: 7661 ident: br0240 article-title: Generalized forgetting recursive least squares: stability and robustness guarantees publication-title: IEEE Trans. Autom. Control – volume: 304 start-page: 9 year: 2023 end-page: 24 ident: br0340 article-title: Global sensitivity analysis in epidemiological modeling publication-title: Eur. J. Oper. Res. – volume: 164 year: 2022 ident: br0060 article-title: How many asymptomatic cases were unconfirmed in the US COVID-19 pandemic? The evidence from a serological survey publication-title: Chaos Solitons Fractals – volume: 103 start-page: 24 year: 2018 end-page: 33 ident: br0200 article-title: An adaptive CSP filter to investigate user independence in a 3-class MI-BCI paradigm publication-title: Comput. Biol. Med. – volume: 154 year: 2022 ident: br0210 article-title: Modeling the effect of the vaccination campaign on the COVID-19 pandemic publication-title: Chaos Solitons Fractals – start-page: 1 year: 2024 end-page: 32 ident: br0110 article-title: Impact of surveillance in human-to-human transmission of monkeypox virus publication-title: Eur. Phys. J. Spec. Top. – volume: 97 year: 2022 ident: br0310 article-title: Fractional order mathematical model of monkeypox transmission dynamics publication-title: Phys. Scr. – year: May–December 2022 ident: br0330 article-title: Racial and ethnic disparities in mpox cases and vaccination among adult males—United States – volume: 32 start-page: 1471 year: 2023 end-page: 1489 ident: br0140 article-title: COVID-19: a multiwave SIR-based model for learning waves publication-title: Prod. Oper. Manag. – volume: 2 start-page: 288 year: 2017 end-page: 303 ident: br0170 article-title: Reproduction numbers of infectious disease models publication-title: Infect. Dis. Model. – volume: 22 start-page: 929 year: 2022 end-page: 931 ident: br0010 article-title: Monkeypox outbreaks outside endemic regions: scientific and social priorities publication-title: Lancet Infect. Dis. – volume: 138 start-page: 242 year: 2023 ident: br0090 article-title: Mathematical model and analysis of monkeypox with control strategies publication-title: Eur. Phys. J. Plus – volume: 569 start-page: 323 year: 2006 end-page: 329 ident: br0350 article-title: Monte Carlo simulations in emission tomography and GATE: an overview publication-title: Nucl. Instrum. Methods Phys. Res., Sect. A, Accel. Spectrom. Detect. Assoc. Equip. – volume: 477 year: 2021 ident: br0040 article-title: Better strategies for containing COVID-19 pandemic: a study of 25 countries via a vSIADR model publication-title: Proc. R. Soc. A – volume: 180 start-page: 29 year: 2002 end-page: 48 ident: br0180 article-title: Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission publication-title: Math. Biosci. – volume: 41 start-page: 379 year: 2021 end-page: 385 ident: br0020 article-title: The use and misuse of mathematical modeling for infectious disease policymaking: lessons for the COVID-19 pandemic publication-title: Med. Decis. Mak. – volume: 23 start-page: 65 year: 2002 end-page: 88 ident: br0270 article-title: The use of the HP-filter in constructing real estate cycle indicators publication-title: J. Real Estate Res. – start-page: 407 year: 1987 end-page: 410 ident: br0230 article-title: A fast qr/frequency-domain rls adaptive filter publication-title: ICASSP'87. IEEE International Conference on Acoustics, Speech, and Signal Processing, vol. 12 – volume: 31 start-page: 58 year: 2009 end-page: 67 ident: br0260 article-title: Comment on “Stock markets and business cycle comovement in Germany before world war I: evidence from spectral analysis” publication-title: J. Macroecon. – year: 2020 ident: br0080 article-title: Global prediction for monkeypox epidemic – volume: 232 start-page: 1 year: 2023 end-page: 17 ident: br0130 article-title: Time series analysis of COVID-19 infection curve: a change-point perspective publication-title: J. Econom. – volume: 4 start-page: 173 year: 2010 end-page: 183 ident: br0290 article-title: Investigation of selection strategies in branch and bound algorithm with simplicial partitions and combination of Lipschitz bounds publication-title: Optim. Lett. – volume: 98 start-page: 638 year: 2020 end-page: 640 ident: br0070 article-title: Modelling human-to-human transmission of monkeypox publication-title: Bull. World Health Organ. – volume: 403 start-page: 789 year: 2024 end-page: 791 ident: br0030 publication-title: Lancet – volume: 29 start-page: 1 year: 1997 end-page: 16 ident: br0250 article-title: Postwar U.S. business cycles: an empirical investigation publication-title: J. Money Credit Bank. – volume: 9 start-page: 1989 year: 2023 end-page: 2007 ident: br0120 article-title: Modeling and optimal control of monkeypox with cost-effective strategies publication-title: Model. Earth Syst. Environ. – volume: 36 year: 2022 ident: br0380 article-title: Artificial intelligence knacks-based computing for stochastic COVID-19 SIRC epidemic model with time delay publication-title: Int. J. Mod. Phys. B – volume: 22 start-page: 941 year: 2022 end-page: 942 ident: br0300 article-title: Tracking the 2022 monkeypox outbreak with epidemiological data in real-time publication-title: Lancet Infect. Dis. – volume: 27 year: 2022 ident: br0360 article-title: Estimated incubation period for monkeypox cases confirmed in the Netherlands, May 2022, publication-title: Euro Surveill. – volume: 146 year: 2021 ident: br0050 article-title: Maximum likelihood-based extended Kalman filter for COVID-19 prediction publication-title: Chaos Solitons Fractals – volume: 8 start-page: 3423 year: 2021 end-page: 3434 ident: br0100 article-title: Transmission dynamics of monkeypox virus: a mathematical modelling approach publication-title: Model. Earth Syst. Environ. – volume: 27 start-page: 2077 year: 2019 end-page: 2090 ident: br0280 article-title: Ridge fuzzy regression model publication-title: Int. J. Fuzzy Syst. – volume: 164 year: 2022 ident: 10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0060 article-title: How many asymptomatic cases were unconfirmed in the US COVID-19 pandemic? The evidence from a serological survey publication-title: Chaos Solitons Fractals doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2022.112630 – volume: 95 issue: 10 year: 2023 ident: 10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0320 article-title: Mpox in northeast Brazil: spatiotemporal analysis and predictors associated with confirmed diagnosis publication-title: J. Med. Virol. – volume: 22 start-page: 929 issue: 7 year: 2022 ident: 10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0010 article-title: Monkeypox outbreaks outside endemic regions: scientific and social priorities publication-title: Lancet Infect. Dis. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(22)00354-1 – volume: 69 start-page: 7646 issue: 11 year: 2024 ident: 10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0240 article-title: Generalized forgetting recursive least squares: stability and robustness guarantees publication-title: IEEE Trans. Autom. Control doi: 10.1109/TAC.2024.3394351 – volume: 2 start-page: 288 year: 2017 ident: 10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0170 article-title: Reproduction numbers of infectious disease models publication-title: Infect. Dis. Model. – volume: 98 start-page: 638 year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0070 article-title: Modelling human-to-human transmission of monkeypox publication-title: Bull. World Health Organ. doi: 10.2471/BLT.19.242347 – volume: 29 start-page: 1 issue: 1 year: 1997 ident: 10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0250 article-title: Postwar U.S. business cycles: an empirical investigation publication-title: J. Money Credit Bank. doi: 10.2307/2953682 – volume: 477 issue: 2248 year: 2021 ident: 10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0040 article-title: Better strategies for containing COVID-19 pandemic: a study of 25 countries via a vSIADR model publication-title: Proc. R. Soc. A doi: 10.1098/rspa.2020.0440 – volume: 304 start-page: 9 issue: 1 year: 2023 ident: 10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0340 article-title: Global sensitivity analysis in epidemiological modeling publication-title: Eur. J. Oper. Res. doi: 10.1016/j.ejor.2021.11.018 – volume: 146 year: 2021 ident: 10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0050 article-title: Maximum likelihood-based extended Kalman filter for COVID-19 prediction publication-title: Chaos Solitons Fractals doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2021.110922 – volume: 180 start-page: 29 issue: 1–2 year: 2002 ident: 10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0180 article-title: Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission publication-title: Math. Biosci. doi: 10.1016/S0025-5564(02)00108-6 – start-page: 1 year: 2024 ident: 10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0110 article-title: Impact of surveillance in human-to-human transmission of monkeypox virus publication-title: Eur. Phys. J. Spec. Top. – volume: 41 start-page: 379 issue: 4 year: 2021 ident: 10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0020 article-title: The use and misuse of mathematical modeling for infectious disease policymaking: lessons for the COVID-19 pandemic publication-title: Med. Decis. Mak. doi: 10.1177/0272989X21990391 – volume: 24 start-page: 4547 issue: 10 year: 2022 ident: 10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0160 article-title: Insights into the monkeypox virus: making of another pandemic within the pandemic? publication-title: Environ. Microbiol. doi: 10.1111/1462-2920.16174 – volume: 36 issue: 26 year: 2022 ident: 10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0380 article-title: Artificial intelligence knacks-based computing for stochastic COVID-19 SIRC epidemic model with time delay publication-title: Int. J. Mod. Phys. B doi: 10.1142/S0217979222501740 – volume: 32 start-page: 1471 issue: 5 year: 2023 ident: 10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0140 article-title: COVID-19: a multiwave SIR-based model for learning waves publication-title: Prod. Oper. Manag. doi: 10.1111/poms.13681 – volume: 138 year: 2021 ident: 10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0220 article-title: SIRVD-DL: a COVID-19 deep learning prediction model based on time-dependent SIRVD publication-title: Comput. Biol. Med. doi: 10.1016/j.compbiomed.2021.104868 – volume: 232 start-page: 1 issue: 1 year: 2023 ident: 10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0130 article-title: Time series analysis of COVID-19 infection curve: a change-point perspective publication-title: J. Econom. doi: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.07.039 – volume: 103 start-page: 24 year: 2018 ident: 10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0200 article-title: An adaptive CSP filter to investigate user independence in a 3-class MI-BCI paradigm publication-title: Comput. Biol. Med. doi: 10.1016/j.compbiomed.2018.09.021 – volume: 97 issue: 8 year: 2022 ident: 10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0310 article-title: Fractional order mathematical model of monkeypox transmission dynamics publication-title: Phys. Scr. doi: 10.1088/1402-4896/ac7ebc – volume: 569 start-page: 323 issue: 2 year: 2006 ident: 10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0350 article-title: Monte Carlo simulations in emission tomography and GATE: an overview publication-title: Nucl. Instrum. Methods Phys. Res., Sect. A, Accel. Spectrom. Detect. Assoc. Equip. doi: 10.1016/j.nima.2006.08.039 – volume: 8 start-page: 3423 year: 2021 ident: 10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0100 article-title: Transmission dynamics of monkeypox virus: a mathematical modelling approach publication-title: Model. Earth Syst. Environ. doi: 10.1007/s40808-021-01313-2 – volume: 31 start-page: 58 issue: 1 year: 2009 ident: 10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0260 article-title: Comment on “Stock markets and business cycle comovement in Germany before world war I: evidence from spectral analysis” publication-title: J. Macroecon. doi: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2008.01.004 – volume: 4 start-page: 173 year: 2010 ident: 10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0290 article-title: Investigation of selection strategies in branch and bound algorithm with simplicial partitions and combination of Lipschitz bounds publication-title: Optim. Lett. doi: 10.1007/s11590-009-0156-3 – volume: 22 start-page: 941 issue: 7 year: 2022 ident: 10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0300 article-title: Tracking the 2022 monkeypox outbreak with epidemiological data in real-time publication-title: Lancet Infect. Dis. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(22)00359-0 – volume: 220 start-page: 158 issue: 1 year: 2021 ident: 10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0150 article-title: Sparse HP filter: finding kinks in the COVID-19 contact rate publication-title: J. Econom. doi: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.08.008 – volume: 27 issue: 24 year: 2022 ident: 10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0360 article-title: Estimated incubation period for monkeypox cases confirmed in the Netherlands, May 2022, publication-title: Euro Surveill. doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2022.27.24.2200448 – ident: 10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0080 – volume: 23 start-page: 65 issue: 1–2 year: 2002 ident: 10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0270 article-title: The use of the HP-filter in constructing real estate cycle indicators publication-title: J. Real Estate Res. doi: 10.1080/10835547.2002.12091070 – volume: 138 start-page: 242 issue: 3 year: 2023 ident: 10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0090 article-title: Mathematical model and analysis of monkeypox with control strategies publication-title: Eur. Phys. J. Plus doi: 10.1140/epjp/s13360-023-03865-x – volume: 27 start-page: 2077 year: 2019 ident: 10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0280 article-title: Ridge fuzzy regression model publication-title: Int. J. Fuzzy Syst. doi: 10.1007/s40815-019-00692-0 – volume: 9 start-page: 1989 issue: 2 year: 2023 ident: 10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0120 article-title: Modeling and optimal control of monkeypox with cost-effective strategies publication-title: Model. Earth Syst. Environ. doi: 10.1007/s40808-022-01607-z – start-page: 407 year: 1987 ident: 10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0230 article-title: A fast qr/frequency-domain rls adaptive filter – year: 2022 ident: 10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0330 – volume: 12 start-page: 1 issue: 1 year: 2021 ident: 10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0370 article-title: Time-varying optimization of COVID-19 vaccine prioritization in the context of limited vaccination capacity publication-title: Nat. Commun. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-24872-5 – volume: 48 start-page: 3000 issue: 11 year: 2000 ident: 10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0190 article-title: Order-recursive RLS Laguerre adaptive filtering publication-title: IEEE Trans. Signal Process. doi: 10.1109/78.875457 – volume: 403 start-page: 789 year: 2024 ident: 10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0030 publication-title: Lancet doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(23)02758-7 – volume: 154 year: 2022 ident: 10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996_br0210 article-title: Modeling the effect of the vaccination campaign on the COVID-19 pandemic publication-title: Chaos Solitons Fractals doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2021.111621 |
| SSID | ssj0005904 |
| Score | 2.4309452 |
| Snippet | This paper proposes a varying coefficient Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed (vSEIR) model to dynamically simulate the early mpox epidemic. We incorporate a... |
| SourceID | crossref elsevier |
| SourceType | Index Database Publisher |
| StartPage | 115996 |
| SubjectTerms | Kink Mpox Recursive least squares algorithm Sparse HP filter vSEIR model |
| Title | Dynamic-spread assessment and kink detection in the early mpox outbreak |
| URI | https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apm.2025.115996 |
| Volume | 143 |
| WOSCitedRecordID | wos001425164500001&url=https%3A%2F%2Fcvtisr.summon.serialssolutions.com%2F%23%21%2Fsearch%3Fho%3Df%26include.ft.matches%3Dt%26l%3Dnull%26q%3D |
| hasFullText | 1 |
| inHoldings | 1 |
| isFullTextHit | |
| isPrint | |
| journalDatabaseRights | – providerCode: PRVESC databaseName: Elsevier SD Freedom Collection Journals 2021 issn: 0307-904X databaseCode: AIEXJ dateStart: 20211207 customDbUrl: isFulltext: true dateEnd: 99991231 titleUrlDefault: https://www.sciencedirect.com omitProxy: false ssIdentifier: ssj0005904 providerName: Elsevier |
| link | http://cvtisr.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/link/0/eLvHCXMwtV1La9wwEBabTQ_JIbRNS14NOuTUxcUPKbJPIeTZQEOgCfhmZEmGzcNrst6w-fcZSZbtPAppoRdjBkuG-YT0SZr5BqEdWIG1rhf3VF4wj_BYejEsLB5QDyUDEUQFz02xCXZ-HqdpcjEY7LlcmIdbVpbxfJ5U_xVqsAHYOnX2L-BuOwUDvAPo8ATY4fku4A9tjXlvWgEflCPeSm-ae4Ib2HuOpKqV6Ec5KiNzfFdN5qPJrIZdMr_ps1ZHVe9ajVedc6Jr6Ny6lc9cY4xtnkf5yDtrOjMozsbdEfXEmM56A_PEWE45jMeyfw4R0jZmtTkccwkyz-I3jQZl4tsgzHbCtcJMryZve45w_YNXWiIgpDCda_GYbqVq4wd_6351tyE1JCldQIshg4-HaHH_51F61kX5JD5xWpi6gbvYNiF-L370NjXp0Y3Lj2il2SfgfYvvJzRQ5We0_KsFYLqKTp4jjTukMSCNNdK4RRqPSwxtsUEaa6SxQ_oLujo-ujw49Zq6GJ6A6bP24oQnEQ2E9PkuKUjAorDIFWPAxRlVisqACxpLTuOEUK414yRsWrlPpCQhKYLoKxqWk1KtIRztAoMROWOcEUISkYtQ-IEKRVRENC-KdfTduSSrrPxJ5uICrzPwX6b9l1n_rSPinJY1_M3ysgwQ_nOzjX9rtomWumG4hYb1_Ux9Qx_EQz2e3m834-AJd3VpvQ |
| linkProvider | Elsevier |
| openUrl | ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info%3Aofi%2Fenc%3AUTF-8&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fsummon.serialssolutions.com&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Dynamic-spread+assessment+and+kink+detection+in+the+early+mpox+outbreak&rft.jtitle=Applied+mathematical+modelling&rft.au=Cai%2C+Junyang&rft.au=Xu%2C+Rui&rft.au=Zhou%2C+Jian&rft.au=Gu%2C+Haoran&rft.date=2025-07-01&rft.pub=Elsevier+Inc&rft.issn=0307-904X&rft.volume=143&rft_id=info:doi/10.1016%2Fj.apm.2025.115996&rft.externalDocID=S0307904X2500071X |
| thumbnail_l | http://covers-cdn.summon.serialssolutions.com/index.aspx?isbn=/lc.gif&issn=0307-904X&client=summon |
| thumbnail_m | http://covers-cdn.summon.serialssolutions.com/index.aspx?isbn=/mc.gif&issn=0307-904X&client=summon |
| thumbnail_s | http://covers-cdn.summon.serialssolutions.com/index.aspx?isbn=/sc.gif&issn=0307-904X&client=summon |