The Theory That Would Not Die How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy
Bayes' rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok. In the fir...
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Yale University Press
17.05.2011
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| Abstract | Bayes' rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok.
In the first-ever account of Bayes' rule for general readers, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it. She traces its discovery by an amateur mathematician in the 1740s through its development into roughly its modern form by French scientist Pierre Simon Laplace. She reveals why respected statisticians rendered it professionally taboo for 150 years-at the same time that practitioners relied on it to solve crises involving great uncertainty and scanty information (Alan Turing's role in breaking Germany's Enigma code during World War II), and explains how the advent of off-the-shelf computer technology in the 1980s proved to be a game-changer. Today, Bayes' rule is used everywhere from DNA de-coding to Homeland Security.
Drawing on primary source material and interviews with statisticians and other scientists,The Theory That Would Not Dieis the riveting account of how a seemingly simple theorem ignited one of the greatest controversies of all time. |
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| AbstractList | Bayes' rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok.
In the first-ever account of Bayes' rule for general readers, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it. She traces its discovery by an amateur mathematician in the 1740s through its development into roughly its modern form by French scientist Pierre Simon Laplace. She reveals why respected statisticians rendered it professionally taboo for 150 years-at the same time that practitioners relied on it to solve crises involving great uncertainty and scanty information (Alan Turing's role in breaking Germany's Enigma code during World War II), and explains how the advent of off-the-shelf computer technology in the 1980s proved to be a game-changer. Today, Bayes' rule is used everywhere from DNA de-coding to Homeland Security.
Drawing on primary source material and interviews with statisticians and other scientists, The Theory That Would Not Die is the riveting account of how a seemingly simple theorem ignited one of the greatest controversies of all time. Bayes' rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok.In the first-ever account of Bayes' rule for general readers, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it. She traces its discovery by an amateur mathematician in the 1740s through its development into roughly its modern form by French scientist Pierre Simon Laplace. She reveals why respected statisticians rendered it professionally taboo for 150 yearsat the same time that practitioners relied on it to solve crises involving great uncertainty and scanty information, even breaking Germany's Enigma code during World War II, and explains how the advent of off-the-shelf computer technology in the 1980s proved to be a game-changer. Today, Bayes' rule is used everywhere from DNA de-coding to Homeland Security.Drawing on primary source material and interviews with statisticians and other scientists, The Theory That Would Not Die is the riveting account of how a seemingly simple theorem ignited one of the greatest controversies of all time. Bayes' rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok. In the first-ever account of Bayes' rule for general readers, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it. She traces its discovery by an amateur mathematician in the 1740s through its development into roughly its modern form by French scientist Pierre Simon Laplace. She reveals why respected statisticians rendered it professionally taboo for 150 years-at the same time that practitioners relied on it to solve crises involving great uncertainty and scanty information (Alan Turing's role in breaking Germany's Enigma code during World War II), and explains how the advent of off-the-shelf computer technology in the 1980s proved to be a game-changer. Today, Bayes' rule is used everywhere from DNA de-coding to Homeland Security. Drawing on primary source material and interviews with statisticians and other scientists,The Theory That Would Not Dieis the riveting account of how a seemingly simple theorem ignited one of the greatest controversies of all time. |
| Author | Sharon Bertsch Mcgrayne |
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| Copyright | 2011 Sharon Bertsch McGrayne |
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| Notes | Includes bibliographical references (p. 275-306) and index |
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| Snippet | Bayes' rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved... |
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| SubjectTerms | Bayesian statistical decision theory Bayesian statistical decision theory -- History History History of Science & Technology MATHEMATICS MATHEMATICS / History & Philosophy MATHEMATICS / Probability & Statistics / Bayesian Analysis SCIENCE / History |
| Subtitle | How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy |
| TableOfContents | Front Matter
Table of Contents
Preface and Note to Readers
Acknowledgments
1.: Causes in the Air
2.: The Man Who Did Everything
3.: Many Doubts, Few Defenders
4.: Bayes Goes to War
5.: Dead and Buried Again
6.: Arthur Bailey
7.: From Tool to Theology
8.: Jerome Cornfield, Lung Cancer, and Heart Attacks
9.: There’s Always a First Time
10.: 46,656 Varieties
11.: Business Decisions
12.: Who Wrote The Federalist?
13.: The Cold Warrior
14.: Three Mile Island
15.: The Navy Searches
16.: Eureka!
17.: Rosetta Stones
Appendix A
Appendix B
Notes
Glossary
Bibliography
Index 2. The Man Who Did Everything -- Contents -- 3. Many Doubts, Few Defenders -- Index Part III. The Glorious Revival -- Michael J. Campbell -- 12. Who Wrote The Federalist? -- Part II. Second World War Era -- 17. Rosetta Stones -- 8. Jerome Cornfield, Lung Cancer, And Heart Attacks -- Appendix A. Dr Fisher’s Casebook: The Doctor Sees The Light Notes -- 15. The Navy Searches -- 13. The Cold Warrior -- Bibliography -- 1. Causes In The Air -- 9. There’s Always A First Time -- 14. Three Mile Island -- Acknowledgments -- 11. Business Decisions -- Part V. Victory -- Appendix B. Applying Bayes’ Rule To Mammograms And Breast Cancer -- 16. Eureka! -- 5. Dead And Buried Again -- Glossary -- 10. 46,656 Varieties -- 4. Bayes Goes To War -- Part IV. To Prove Its Worth -- Frontmatter -- Preface And Note To Readers -- 6. Arthur Bailey -- 7. From Tool To Theology -- Part I. Enlightenment And The Anti-Bayesian Reaction -- |
| Title | The Theory That Would Not Die |
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