Secular cycles
Many historical processes exhibit recurrent patterns of change. Century-long periods of population expansion come before long periods of stagnation and decline; the dynamics of prices mirror population oscillations; and states go through strong expansionist phases followed by periods of state failur...
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| Médium: | E-kniha Kniha |
| Jazyk: | English |
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Princeton, N.J
Princeton University Press
2009
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| Vydanie: | 1 |
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| ISBN: | 9780691136967, 0691136963, 1400830680, 9781400830688 |
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| Abstract | Many historical processes exhibit recurrent patterns of change. Century-long periods of population expansion come before long periods of stagnation and decline; the dynamics of prices mirror population oscillations; and states go through strong expansionist phases followed by periods of state failure, endemic sociopolitical instability, and territorial loss. Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov explore the dynamics and causal connections between such demographic, economic, and political variables in agrarian societies and offer detailed explanations for these long-term oscillations--what the authors call secular cycles. |
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| AbstractList | No detailed description available for "Secular Cycles". Many historical processes exhibit recurrent patterns of change. Century-long periods of population expansion come before long periods of stagnation and decline; the dynamics of prices mirror population oscillations; and states go through strong expansionist phases followed by periods of state failure, endemic sociopolitical instability, and territorial loss. Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov explore the dynamics and causal connections between such demographic, economic, and political variables in agrarian societies and offer detailed explanations for these long-term oscillations--what the authors call secular cycles. Secular Cycleselaborates and expands upon the demographic-structural theory first advanced by Jack Goldstone, which provides an explanation of long-term oscillations. This book tests that theory's specific and quantitative predictions by tracing the dynamics of population numbers, prices and real wages, elite numbers and incomes, state finances, and sociopolitical instability. Turchin and Nefedov study societies in England, France, and Russia during the medieval and early modern periods, and look back at the Roman Republic and Empire. Incorporating theoretical and quantitative history, the authors examine a specific model of historical change and, more generally, investigate the utility of the dynamical systems approach in historical applications. An indispensable and groundbreaking resource for a wide variety of social scientists,Secular Cycleswill interest practitioners of economic history, historical sociology, complexity studies, and demography. Many historical processes exhibit recurrent patterns of change. Century-long periods of population expansion come before long periods of stagnation and decline; the dynamics of prices mirror population oscillations; and states go through strong expansionist phases followed by periods of state failure, endemic sociopolitical instability, and territorial loss. Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov explore the dynamics and causal connections between such demographic, economic, and political variables in agrarian societies and offer detailed explanations for these long-term oscillations--what the authors call secular cycles. Secular Cycles elaborates and expands upon the demographic-structural theory first advanced by Jack Goldstone, which provides an explanation of long-term oscillations. This book tests that theory's specific and quantitative predictions by tracing the dynamics of population numbers, prices and real wages, elite numbers and incomes, state finances, and sociopolitical instability. Turchin and Nefedov study societies in England, France, and Russia during the medieval and early modern periods, and look back at the Roman Republic and Empire. Incorporating theoretical and quantitative history, the authors examine a specific model of historical change and, more generally, investigate the utility of the dynamical systems approach in historical applications. An indispensable and groundbreaking resource for a wide variety of social scientists, Secular Cycles will interest practitioners of economic history, historical sociology, complexity studies, and demography. <![CDATA[ Many historical processes exhibit recurrent patterns of change. Century-long periods of population expansion come before long periods of stagnation and decline; the dynamics of prices mirror population oscillations; and states go through strong expansionist phases followed by periods of state failure, endemic sociopolitical instability, and territorial loss. Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov explore the dynamics and causal connections between such demographic, economic, and political variables in agrarian societies and offer detailed explanations for these long-term oscillations--what the authors call secular cycles. Secular Cycles elaborates and expands upon the demographic-structural theory first advanced by Jack Goldstone, which provides an explanation of long-term oscillations. This book tests that theory's specific and quantitative predictions by tracing the dynamics of population numbers, prices and real wages, elite numbers and incomes, state finances, and sociopolitical instability. Turchin and Nefedov study societies in England, France, and Russia during the medieval and early modern periods, and look back at the Roman Republic and Empire. Incorporating theoretical and quantitative history, the authors examine a specific model of historical change and, more generally, investigate the utility of the dynamical systems approach in historical applications. An indispensable and groundbreaking resource for a wide variety of social scientists, Secular Cycles will interest practitioners of economic history, historical sociology, complexity studies, and demography. ]]> Many historical processes exhibit recurrent patterns of change. Century-long periods of population expansion come before long periods of stagnation and decline; the dynamics of prices mirror population oscillations; and states go through strong expansionist phases followed by periods of state failure, endemic sociopolitical instability, and territorial loss. Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov explore the dynamics and causal connections between such demographic, economic, and political variables in agrarian societies and offer detailed explanations for these long-term oscillations--what the authors call secular cycles. Many historical processes exhibit recurrent patterns of change. Century-long periods of population expansion come before long periods of stagnation and decline; the dynamics of prices mirror population oscillations; and states go through strong expansionist phases followed by periods of state failure, endemic sociopolitical instability, and territorial loss. Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov explore the dynamics and causal connections between such demographic, economic, and political variables in agrarian societies and offer detailed explanations for these long-term oscillations--what the authors call secular cycles. Secular Cycles elaborates and expands upon the demographic-structural theory first advanced by Jack Goldstone, which provides an explanation of long-term oscillations. This book tests that theory's specific and quantitative predictions by tracing the dynamics of population numbers, prices and real wages, elite numbers and incomes, state finances, and sociopolitical instability. Turchin and Nefedov study societies in England, France, and Russia during the medieval and early modern periods, and look back at the Roman Republic and Empire. Incorporating theoretical and quantitative history, the authors examine a specific model of historical change and, more generally, investigate the utility of the dynamical systems approach in historical applications. Summary reprinted by permission of Princeton University Press |
| Author | Turchin, Peter Nefedov, Sergey A |
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| Discipline | Economics Anthropology Social Sciences (General) Political Science Agriculture |
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| Keywords | Competition Livonian War Income Acknowledgment (creative arts and sciences) Scarcity Tax Military service Elite Marxism Nobility Commoner Financial crisis Debt Cambridge University Press Elite overproduction Calculation Stagflation Economics Standard of living Population growth Jack Goldstone Social structure Household Prediction Serfdom Failed state Roman Republic Supply (economics) Social mobility Case study Age of Revolution Magnate J. (newspaper) Central Russia Urbanization Demography Plebs Capita Laborer Birth rate War Warfare Denarius Crown land Famine Inflation Shortage Mortality rate Employment Sulla Serfdom in Russia Peasant Agriculture Agrarian society Carrying capacity Overpopulation Population decline Conspicuous consumption Subsistence crisis Aristocracy Agricultural productivity Year Economic inequality The Other Hand Population dynamics Colonization Population density Landlord Price revolution Wealth |
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| Notes | Includes bibliographical references (p. [317]-339) and index SourceType-Books-1 ObjectType-Book-1 content type line 7 |
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| Snippet | Many historical processes exhibit recurrent patterns of change. Century-long periods of population expansion come before long periods of stagnation and... <![CDATA[ Many historical processes exhibit recurrent patterns of change. Century-long periods of population expansion come before long periods of stagnation... No detailed description available for "Secular Cycles". |
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| SubjectTerms | Acknowledgment (creative arts and sciences) Age of Revolution Agrarian society Agricultural productivity Agriculture Aristocracy Birth rate BUSINESS & ECONOMICS BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Economic History Business cycles Business cycles -- Mathematical models Calculation Cambridge University Press Capita Carrying capacity Case study Central Russia Colonization Commoner Competition Conspicuous consumption Crown land Cycles Cyclical analysis Debt Demography Demography -- Mathematical models Denarius Economic development Economic development -- Mathematical models Economic History Economic inequality Economics Elite Elite overproduction Employment Failed state Famine Financial crisis Historical analysis Household Income Inflation J. (newspaper) Jack Goldstone Laborer Landlord Livonian War Long-term analysis Magnate Marxism Mathematical models Military service Mortality rate Nobility Overpopulation Peasant Plebs Political Science POLITICAL SCIENCE / General Population Population -- Mathematical models Population decline Population density Population dynamics Population growth Population Studies Prediction Price revolution Roman Republic Scarcity Serfdom Serfdom in Russia Shortage Social history Social mobility SOCIAL SCIENCE SOCIAL SCIENCE / Demography SOCIAL SCIENCE / Sociology / General Social structure Sociology Stagflation Standard of living Subsistence crisis Sulla Supply (economics) Tax The Other Hand Urbanization War Warfare Wealth Year |
| SubjectTermsDisplay | Population |
| TableOfContents | Secular cycles -- Contents -- Units and Currencies -- Chapter 1: Introduction: The Theoretical Background -- Chapter 2: Medieval England: The Plantagenet Cycle (1150–1485) -- Chapter 3: Early Modern England: The Tudor-Stuart Cycle (1485–1730) -- Chapter 4: Medieval France: The Capetian Cycle (1150–1450) -- Chapter 5: Early Modern France: The Valois Cycle (1450–1660) -- Chapter 6: Rome: The Republican Cycle (350–30 BCE) -- Chapter 7: Rome: The Principate Cycle (30 BCE–285 CE) -- Chapter 8: Russia: The Muscovy Cycle (1460–1620) -- Chapter 9: Russia: The Romanov Cycle (1620–1922) -- Chapter 10: General Conclusions -- Acknowledgments -- References Cited -- Index Front Matter Table of Contents Table of Units and Currencies Chapter 1: Introduction: Chapter 2: Medieval England: Chapter 3: Early Modern England: Chapter 4: Medieval France: Chapter 5: Early Modern France: Chapter 6: Rome: Chapter 7: Rome: Chapter 8: Russia: Chapter 9: Russia: Chapter 10: General Conclusions Acknowledgments References Cited Index Cover Title Page, Copyright Contents Table of Units and Currencies Chapter 1 Introduction: The Theoretical Background Chapter 2 Medieval England: The Plantagenet Cycle (1150–1485) Chapter 3 Early Modern England: The Tudor-Stuart Cycle (1485–1730) Chapter 4 Medieval France: The Capetian Cycle (1150–1450) Chapter 5 Early Modern France: The Valois Cycle (1450–1660) Chapter 6 Rome: The Republican Cycle (350–30 BCE) Chapter 7 Rome: The Principate Cycle (30 BCE–285 CE) Chapter 8 Russia: The Muscovy Cycle (1460–1620) Chapter 9 Russia: The Romanov Cycle (1620–1922) Chapter 10 General Conclusions Acknowledgments References Cited Index 8.2 Expansion (1460-1530) -- 8.3 Stagflation (1530-65) -- 8.4 Crisis (1565-1615) -- 8.5 Conclusion -- Chapter 9 Russia: The Romanov Cycle (1620-1922) -- 9.1 Expansion (1620-1800) -- 9.2 Stagflation (1800-1905) -- 9.3 Crisis (1905-22) -- 9.4 Conclusion -- Chapter 10 General Conclusions -- 10.1 Population Numbers -- 10.2 Elite Dynamics -- 10.3 The State -- 10.4 Sociopolitical Instability -- 10.5 Are There General Laws of Historical Dynamics? -- Acknowledgments -- References Cited -- Index -- A -- B -- C -- D -- E -- F -- G -- H -- I -- J -- K -- L -- M -- N -- O -- P -- R -- S -- T -- U -- V -- W -- Y -- Z Cover -- Title -- Copyright -- Contents -- Table of Units and Currencies -- Chapter 1 Introduction: The Theoretical Background -- 1.1 Development of Ideas about Demographic Cycles -- 1.2 A Synthetic Theory of Secular Cycles -- 1.3 Variations and Extensions -- 1.4 Empirical Approaches -- Chapter 2 Medieval England: The Plantagenet Cycle (1150-1485) -- 2.1 Overview of the Cycle -- 2.2 The Expansion Phase (1150-1260) -- 2.3 Stagflation (1260-1315) -- 2.4 Crisis (1315-1400) -- 2.5 Depression (1400-1485) -- 2.6 Conclusion -- Chapter 3 Early Modern England: The Tudor-Stuart Cycle (1485-1730) -- 3.1 Overview of the Cycle -- 3.2 Expansion (1485-1580) -- 3.3 Stagflation (1580-1640) -- 3.4 Crisis (1640-60) -- 3.5 Depression (1660-1730) -- 3.6 Conclusion -- Appendix to Chapter 3 -- Chapter 4 Medieval France: The Capetian Cycle (1150-1450) -- 4.1 Overview of the Cycle -- 4.2 Expansion (1150-1250) -- 4.3 Stagflation (1250-1315) -- 4.4 Crisis (1315-65) -- 4.5 Depression (1365-1450) -- 4.6 Conclusion: "A Near Perfect Multi-secular Cycle -- Chpater 5 Early Modern France: The Valois Cycle (1450-1660) -- 5.1 Overview -- 5.2 Expansion (1450-1520) -- 5.3 Stagflation (1520-70) -- 5.4 Crisis (1570-1600) -- 5.5 A Case Study: The Norman Nobility -- 5.6 Depression (1600-1660) -- 5.7 Conclusion -- Chapter 6 Rome: The Republican Cycle (350-30 BCE) -- 6.1 Overview of the Cycle -- 6.2 An Unusually Long Expansion (350-180 BCE) -- 6.3 Stagflation (180-130 BCE) -- 6.4 The Late Republican Crisis (130-30 BCE) -- 6.5 The End of the Disintegrative Trend -- 6.6 Conclusion -- Chapter 7 Rome: The Principate Cycle (30 BCE-285 CE) -- 7.1 Overview of the Cycle -- 7.2 Expansion (27 BCE-96 CE) -- 7.3 Stagflation (96-165 CE) -- 7.4 Crisis (165-97 CE) -- 7.5 Depression (197-285 CE) -- 7.6 Conclusion -- Chapter 8 Russia: The Muscovy Cycle (1460-1620) -- 8.1 The Fifteenth-Century Crisis Chapter 2. Medieval England: The Plantagenet Cycle (1150–1485) References Cited Chapter 8. Russia: The Muscovy Cycle (1460–1620) Chapter 4. Medieval France: The Capetian Cycle (1150–1450) Chapter 10. General Conclusions Chapter 5. Early Modern France: The Valois Cycle (1450–1660) Index - Units and Currencies / Chapter 6. Rome: The Republican Cycle (350–30 BCE) Contents Acknowledgments Frontmatter -- Chapter 3. Early Modern England: The Tudor-Stuart Cycle (1485–1730) Chapter 7. Rome: The Principate Cycle (30 BCE–285 CE) Chapter 1. Introduction: The Theoretical Background Chapter 9. Russia: The Romanov Cycle (1620–1922) |
| Title | Secular cycles |
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