Revisiting Antarctic ice loss due to marine ice-cliff instability

Predictions for sea-level rise this century due to melt from Antarctica range from zero to more than one metre. The highest predictions are driven by the controversial marine ice-cliff instability (MICI) hypothesis, which assumes that coastal ice cliffs can rapidly collapse after ice shelves disinte...

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Veröffentlicht in:	Nature (London) Jg. 566; H. 7742; S. 58 - 64
Hauptverfasser:	Edwards, Tamsin L., Brandon, Mark A., Durand, Gael, Edwards, Neil R., Golledge, Nicholas R., Holden, Philip B., Nias, Isabel J., Payne, Antony J., Ritz, Catherine, Wernecke, Andreas
Format:	Journal Article
Sprache:	Englisch
Veröffentlicht:	London Nature Publishing Group UK 01.02.2019 Nature Publishing Group
Schlagworte:	704/106/125 704/106/694/1108 704/106/694/2786 Antarctic ice Causes of Cliffs Climate change Collapse Environmental aspects Environmental Sciences Forecasts and trends Geophysical research Global Changes Global warming Greenhouse effect Greenhouse gases Humanities and Social Sciences Hypotheses Ice Ice sheets Ice shelves Instability Interglacial periods Land ice Mathematical models multidisciplinary Ocean temperature Pliocene Science Science (multidisciplinary) Sea level Sea level changes Sea level rise Sea level variations Sheet modelling Stability Star & galaxy formation Surface-ice melting Antarctica
ISSN:	0028-0836, 1476-4687, 1476-4687
Online-Zugang:	Volltext
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Abstract	Predictions for sea-level rise this century due to melt from Antarctica range from zero to more than one metre. The highest predictions are driven by the controversial marine ice-cliff instability (MICI) hypothesis, which assumes that coastal ice cliffs can rapidly collapse after ice shelves disintegrate, as a result of surface and sub-shelf melting caused by global warming. But MICI has not been observed in the modern era and it remains unclear whether it is required to reproduce sea-level variations in the geological past. Here we quantify ice-sheet modelling uncertainties for the original MICI study and show that the probability distributions are skewed towards lower values (under very high greenhouse gas concentrations, the most likely value is 45 centimetres). However, MICI is not required to reproduce sea-level changes due to Antarctic ice loss in the mid-Pliocene epoch, the last interglacial period or 1992–2017; without it we find that the projections agree with previous studies (all 95th percentiles are less than 43 centimetres). We conclude that previous interpretations of these MICI projections over-estimate sea-level rise this century; because the MICI hypothesis is not well constrained, confidence in projections with MICI would require a greater range of observationally constrained models of ice-shelf vulnerability and ice-cliff collapse. By better quantifying uncertainties for marine ice-cliff instability, future Antarctic ice loss is predicted to be much lower than previously estimated.
AbstractList	Predictions for sea-level rise this century due to melt from Antarctica range from zero to more than one metre. The highest predictions are driven by the controversial marine ice-cliff instability (MICI) hypothesis, which assumes that coastal ice cliffs can rapidly collapse after ice shelves disintegrate, as a result of surface and sub-shelf melting caused by global warming. But MICI has not been observed in the modern era and it remains unclear whether it is required to reproduce sea-level variations in the geological past. Here we quantify ice-sheet modelling uncertainties for the original MICI study and show that the probability distributions are skewed towards lower values (under very high greenhouse gas concentrations, the most likely value is 45 centimetres). However, MICI is not required to reproduce sea-level changes due to Antarctic ice loss in the mid-Pliocene epoch, the last interglacial period or 1992–2017; without it we find that the projections agree with previous studies (all 95th percentiles are less than 43 centimetres). We conclude that previous interpretations of these MICI projections over-estimate sea-level rise this century; because the MICI hypothesis is not well constrained, confidence in projections with MICI would require a greater range of observationally constrained models of ice-shelf vulnerability and ice-cliff collapse. By better quantifying uncertainties for marine ice-cliff instability, future Antarctic ice loss is predicted to be much lower than previously estimated. Predictions for sea-level rise this century due to melt from Antarctica range from zero to more than one metre. The highest predictions are driven by the controversial marine ice-cliff instability (MICI) hypothesis, which assumes that coastal ice cliffs can rapidly collapse after ice shelves disintegrate, as a result of surface and sub-shelf melting caused by global warming. But MICI has not been observed in the modern era and it remains unclear whether it is required to reproduce sea-level variations in the geological past. Here we quantify ice-sheet modelling uncertainties for the original MICI study and show that the probability distributions are skewed towards lower values (under very high greenhouse gas concentrations, the most likely value is 45 centimetres). However, MICI is not required to reproduce sea-level changes due to Antarctic ice loss in the mid-Pliocene epoch, the last interglacial period or 1992-2017; without it we find that the projections agree with previous studies (all 95th percentiles are less than 43 centimetres). We conclude that previous interpretations of these MICI projections over-estimate sea-level rise this century; because the MICI hypothesis is not well constrained, confidence in projections with MICI would require a greater range of observationally constrained models of ice-shelf vulnerability and ice-cliff collapse. Predictions for sea-level rise this century due to melt from Antarctica range from zero to more than one metre. The highest predictions are driven by the controversial marine ice-cliff instability (MICI) hypothesis, which assumes that coastal ice cliffs can rapidly collapse after ice shelves disintegrate, as a result of surface and sub-shelf melting caused by global warming. But MICI has not been observed in the modern era and it remains unclear whether it is required to reproduce sea-level variations in the geological past. Here we quantify ice-sheet modelling uncertainties for the original MICI study and show that the probability distributions are skewed towards lower values (under very high greenhouse gas concentrations, the most likely value is 45 centimetres). However, MICI is not required to reproduce sea-level changes due to Antarctic ice loss in the mid-Pliocene epoch, the last interglacial period or 1992-2017; without it we find that the projections agree with previous studies (all 95th percentiles are less than 43 centimetres). We conclude that previous interpretations of these MICI projections over-estimate sea-level rise this century; because the MICI hypothesis is not well constrained, confidence in projections with MICI would require a greater range of observationally constrained models of ice-shelf vulnerability and ice-cliff collapse.Predictions for sea-level rise this century due to melt from Antarctica range from zero to more than one metre. The highest predictions are driven by the controversial marine ice-cliff instability (MICI) hypothesis, which assumes that coastal ice cliffs can rapidly collapse after ice shelves disintegrate, as a result of surface and sub-shelf melting caused by global warming. But MICI has not been observed in the modern era and it remains unclear whether it is required to reproduce sea-level variations in the geological past. Here we quantify ice-sheet modelling uncertainties for the original MICI study and show that the probability distributions are skewed towards lower values (under very high greenhouse gas concentrations, the most likely value is 45 centimetres). However, MICI is not required to reproduce sea-level changes due to Antarctic ice loss in the mid-Pliocene epoch, the last interglacial period or 1992-2017; without it we find that the projections agree with previous studies (all 95th percentiles are less than 43 centimetres). We conclude that previous interpretations of these MICI projections over-estimate sea-level rise this century; because the MICI hypothesis is not well constrained, confidence in projections with MICI would require a greater range of observationally constrained models of ice-shelf vulnerability and ice-cliff collapse. Predictions for sea-level rise this century due to melt from Antarctica range from zero to more than one metre. The highest predictions are driven by the controversial marine ice-cliff instability (MICI) hypothesis, which assumes that coastal ice cliffs can rapidly collapse after ice shelves disintegrate, as a result of surface and sub-shelf melting caused by global warming. But MICI has not been observed in the modern era and it remains unclear whether it is required to reproduce sea-level variations in the geological past. Here we quantify ice-sheet modelling uncertainties for the original MICI study and show that the probability distributions are skewed towards lower values (under very high greenhouse gas concentrations, the most likely value is 45 centimetres). However, MICI is not required to reproduce sea-level changes due to Antarctic ice loss in the mid-Pliocene epoch, the last interglacial period or 1992-2017; without it we find that the projections agree with previous studies (all 95th percentiles are less than 43 centimetres). We conclude that previous interpretations of these MICI projections over-estimate sea-level rise this century; because the MICI hypothesis is not well constrained, confidence in projections with MICI would require a greater range of observationally constrained models of ice-shelf vulnerability and ice-cliff collapse.By better quantifying uncertainties for marine ice-cliff instability, future Antarctic ice loss is predicted to be much lower than previously estimated.
Audience	Academic
Author	Holden, Philip B. Edwards, Tamsin L. Wernecke, Andreas Edwards, Neil R. Nias, Isabel J. Durand, Gael Golledge, Nicholas R. Payne, Antony J. Ritz, Catherine Brandon, Mark A.
Author_xml	– sequence: 1 givenname: Tamsin L. surname: Edwards fullname: Edwards, Tamsin L. email: tamsin.edwards@kcl.ac.uk organization: Department of Geography, King’s College London – sequence: 2 givenname: Mark A. surname: Brandon fullname: Brandon, Mark A. organization: School of Environment, Earth and Ecosystem Sciences, Faculty of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics, Open University – sequence: 3 givenname: Gael surname: Durand fullname: Durand, Gael organization: Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, IGE – sequence: 4 givenname: Neil R. surname: Edwards fullname: Edwards, Neil R. organization: School of Environment, Earth and Ecosystem Sciences, Faculty of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics, Open University – sequence: 5 givenname: Nicholas R. surname: Golledge fullname: Golledge, Nicholas R. organization: Antarctic Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington, GNS Science, Avalon – sequence: 6 givenname: Philip B. surname: Holden fullname: Holden, Philip B. organization: School of Environment, Earth and Ecosystem Sciences, Faculty of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics, Open University – sequence: 7 givenname: Isabel J. surname: Nias fullname: Nias, Isabel J. organization: Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center – sequence: 8 givenname: Antony J. surname: Payne fullname: Payne, Antony J. organization: Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol – sequence: 9 givenname: Catherine surname: Ritz fullname: Ritz, Catherine organization: Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, IGE – sequence: 10 givenname: Andreas surname: Wernecke fullname: Wernecke, Andreas organization: School of Environment, Earth and Ecosystem Sciences, Faculty of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics, Open University
BackLink	https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30728522$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed https://hal.science/hal-02374873$$DView record in HAL
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ContentType	Journal Article
Copyright	The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited 2019 COPYRIGHT 2019 Nature Publishing Group Copyright Nature Publishing Group Feb 7, 2019 Attribution
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DOI	10.1038/s41586-019-0901-4
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References_xml	– reference: O’HaganABayesian analysis of computer code outputs: a tutorialReliab. Eng. Syst. Saf2006911290130010.1016/j.ress.2005.11.025 – reference: SweeneyJSalter-TownshendMEdwardsTBuckCEParnellACStatistical challenges in estimating past climate changes. Wiley InterdiscipRev. Comput. Stat.201810e1437 – reference: GladstoneRMCalibrated prediction of Pine Island Glacier retreat during the 21st and 22nd centuries with a coupled flowline modelEarth Planet. Sci. Lett.2012333–3341911992012E&PSL.333..191G10.1016/j.epsl.2012.04.022 – reference: PollardDDeContoRMAlleyRBPotential Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat driven by hydrofracturing and ice cliff failureEarth Planet. Sci. Lett.20154121121212015E&PSL.412..112P1:CAS:528:DC%2BC2MXkvVGq10.1016/j.epsl.2014.12.035 – reference: NiasICornfordSLPayneAJContrasting model sensitivity of the Amundsen Sea embayment ice streamsJ. 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Snippet	Predictions for sea-level rise this century due to melt from Antarctica range from zero to more than one metre. The highest predictions are driven by the...
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SubjectTerms	704/106/125 704/106/694/1108 704/106/694/2786 Antarctic ice Causes of Cliffs Climate change Collapse Environmental aspects Environmental Sciences Forecasts and trends Geophysical research Global Changes Global warming Greenhouse effect Greenhouse gases Humanities and Social Sciences Hypotheses Ice Ice sheets Ice shelves Instability Interglacial periods Land ice Mathematical models multidisciplinary Ocean temperature Pliocene Science Science (multidisciplinary) Sea level Sea level changes Sea level rise Sea level variations Sheet modelling Stability Star & galaxy formation Surface-ice melting
Title	Revisiting Antarctic ice loss due to marine ice-cliff instability
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