The South African Economy Macroeconomic prospects for the medium term

What are the macroeconomic prospects for South Africa until the new millennium? Two methods of macroeconomic modelling, associated with the World Bank and IMF, are used here to generate three scenarios, based on moderately optimistic projections. The methodology used can be applied to other developi...

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Hlavní autori:	Brixen, Peter, Tarp, Finn
Médium:	E-kniha Kniha
Jazyk:	English
Vydavateľské údaje:	Oxford Routledge 1996 Taylor and Francis Taylor & Francis
Vydanie:	1
Edícia:	Routledge Studies in Development Economics
Predmet:	1991 base Base Run Business DCG Development Economics Development economics and emerging economies Econometric models Economic conditions Economic forecasting Economic forecasting > South Africa > Econometric models Economic forecasts Economic policy Economics Economics, Finance, Business and Management financial Financial Programming Framework FP Model FRAM framework Gdp Elasticity Gdp Growth Gdp Growth Rate Gdp Increase international IRF Macroeconomics minimum Net Foreign Debt Nominal GDP Nonfiction Pe Rc Pessimistic Scenario programming Real Exchange Rate Elasticity Real Gdp Real Government Consumption reserves revised RMSM run Sectoral Gdp South Africa South Africa > Economic conditions > 1991- > Econometric models South Africa > Economic policy > Econometric models TRO standard financial Sectoral Gdp run Net Foreign Debt Real Gdp GAMS Programes TRO Real Exchange Rate Elasticity Pessimistic Scenario Gdp Growth Nominal GDP Gdp Elasticity Foreign Currency Units FRAM Base Run international Gdp Increase programming FP Model Financial Programming Framework DCG Pe Rc reserves National Accounting Identities Endogenous Exchange Rate framework RMSM Optimistic Scenario Real Government Consumption revised IRF minimum base Gdp Growth Rate
ISBN:	0415142601, 9780415142601, 9780203982051, 1134765428, 113476541X, 9781134765423, 9781134765379, 0203982053, 9781134765416, 1134765371
ISSN:	1359-7884
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Cover -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Table of Contents -- List of Figures -- List of Table and Boxes -- Preface -- Acknowledgements -- Abbreviations -- 1. INTRODUCTION -- 2. GENERAL COUNTRY BACKGROUND -- Macroeconomic features and trend -- Socio-economic characteristics -- Legacies of apartheid in perspective -- Policy frameworks -- 3. ACCOUNTING FRAMEWORK AND BASE YEAR DATA -- Prices and exchange rates -- Material balance -- Balance of payments -- Money market -- Government accounts -- Other variables -- Disaggregated GDP and export data -- Conclusion -- 4. MODELLING FRAMEWORKS -- The financial programming approach of the IMF -- The Revised Minimum Standard Model of the World Bank -- Discussion -- 5. MODEL EXPERIMENTS -- Experiment 1: Exchange rate depreciation -- Experiment 2: Government external borrowing -- Experiment 3: Foreign reserves -- Experiment 4: Domestic inflation -- Experiment 5: GDP growth -- Experiment 6: Export quantity versus export price -- Conclusion -- 6. BASE RUN -- Background -- Demand and supply -- Prices and exchange rates -- Balance of payments -- Government accounts -- Asset stocks -- Conclusion -- 7. ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS -- Introduction -- Alternative assumptions -- Results -- Summing-up -- 8. CONCLUSION -- APPENDIX A: Modelling frameworks in GAMS -- A.1 Introduction -- A.2 Financial Programming Framework -- A.3 The Revised Minimum Standard Model -- APPENDIX Β: BASE RUN -- APPENDIX C: OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO -- APPENDIX D: PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO -- Bibliography -- Index