The psychology of intelligence analysis: drivers of prediction accuracy in world politics

This article extends psychological methods and concepts into a domain that is as profoundly consequential as it is poorly understood: intelligence analysis. We report findings from a geopolitical forecasting tournament that assessed the accuracy of more than 150,000 forecasts of 743 participants on...

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Bibliographische Detailangaben

Veröffentlicht in:	Journal of experimental psychology. Applied Jg. 21; H. 1; S. 1
Hauptverfasser:	Mellers, Barbara, Stone, Eric, Atanasov, Pavel, Rohrbaugh, Nick, Metz, S Emlen, Ungar, Lyle, Bishop, Michael M, Horowitz, Michael, Merkle, Ed, Tetlock, Philip
Format:	Journal Article
Sprache:	Englisch
Veröffentlicht:	United States 01.03.2015
Schlagworte:	Adult Female Forecasting Humans Intelligence Judgment Male Models, Statistical Politics Probability Psychological Techniques
ISSN:	1939-2192, 1939-2192
Online-Zugang:	Weitere Angaben
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