The psychology of intelligence analysis: drivers of prediction accuracy in world politics

This article extends psychological methods and concepts into a domain that is as profoundly consequential as it is poorly understood: intelligence analysis. We report findings from a geopolitical forecasting tournament that assessed the accuracy of more than 150,000 forecasts of 743 participants on...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of experimental psychology. Applied Vol. 21; no. 1; p. 1
Main Authors: Mellers, Barbara, Stone, Eric, Atanasov, Pavel, Rohrbaugh, Nick, Metz, S Emlen, Ungar, Lyle, Bishop, Michael M, Horowitz, Michael, Merkle, Ed, Tetlock, Philip
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: United States 01.03.2015
Subjects:
Adult
Female
Forecasting
Humans
Intelligence
Judgment
Male
Models, Statistical
Politics
Probability
Psychological Techniques
ISSN:1939-2192, 1939-2192
Online Access:Get more information
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Summary:This article extends psychological methods and concepts into a domain that is as profoundly consequential as it is poorly understood: intelligence analysis. We report findings from a geopolitical forecasting tournament that assessed the accuracy of more than 150,000 forecasts of 743 participants on 199 events occurring over 2 years. Participants were above average in intelligence and political knowledge relative to the general population. Individual differences in performance emerged, and forecasting skills were surprisingly consistent over time. Key predictors were (a) dispositional variables of cognitive ability, political knowledge, and open-mindedness; (b) situational variables of training in probabilistic reasoning and participation in collaborative teams that shared information and discussed rationales (Mellers, Ungar, et al., 2014); and (c) behavioral variables of deliberation time and frequency of belief updating. We developed a profile of the best forecasters; they were better at inductive reasoning, pattern detection, cognitive flexibility, and open-mindedness. They had greater understanding of geopolitics, training in probabilistic reasoning, and opportunities to succeed in cognitively enriched team environments. Last but not least, they viewed forecasting as a skill that required deliberate practice, sustained effort, and constant monitoring of current affairs.
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ISSN:1939-2192
1939-2192
DOI:10.1037/xap0000040