Resilience-based performance metrics for water resources management under uncertainty

•New metrics for assessing resilience of long-term water supply/demand balance under uncertainty are proposed addressing different aspects of water deficits including duration, magnitude, frequency and volume of these events.•Metrics are tested, validated and demonstrated on a real Bristol Water sup...

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Veröffentlicht in:Advances in water resources Jg. 116; S. 18 - 28
Hauptverfasser: Roach, Tom, Kapelan, Zoran, Ledbetter, Ralph
Format: Journal Article
Sprache:Englisch
Veröffentlicht: Oxford Elsevier Ltd 01.06.2018
Elsevier Science Ltd
Schlagworte:
Case studies
Climate change
Climate change adaptation
Duration
Performance measurement
Performance metrics
Population growth
Reliability
Resilience
Sensitivity analysis
uncertainty
United Kingdom
Water conveyance
Water deficit
water management
Water resources
Water resources management
Water supply
United Kingdom
Performance metrics
Water resources management
Reliability
Climate change adaptation
Water supply
Resilience
ISSN:0309-1708, 1872-9657
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Zusammenfassung:•New metrics for assessing resilience of long-term water supply/demand balance under uncertainty are proposed addressing different aspects of water deficits including duration, magnitude, frequency and volume of these events.•Metrics are tested, validated and demonstrated on a real Bristol Water supply system.•The key finding is that, unlike in current practice so far, multiple metrics covering different aspects of resilience should be used simultaneously for water resources management under uncertainty. This paper aims to develop new, resilience type metrics for long-term water resources management under uncertain climate change and population growth. Resilience is defined here as the ability of a water resources management system to ‘bounce back’, i.e. absorb and then recover from a water deficit event, restoring the normal system operation. Ten alternative metrics are proposed and analysed addressing a range of different resilience aspects including duration, magnitude, frequency and volume of related water deficit events. The metrics were analysed on a real-world case study of the Bristol Water supply system in the UK and compared with current practice. The analyses included an examination of metrics’ sensitivity and correlation, as well as a detailed examination into the behaviour of metrics during water deficit periods. The results obtained suggest that multiple metrics which cover different aspects of resilience should be used simultaneously when assessing the resilience of a water resources management system, leading to a more complete understanding of resilience compared with current practice approaches. It was also observed that calculating the total duration of a water deficit period provided a clearer and more consistent indication of system performance compared to splitting the deficit periods into the time to reach and time to recover from the worst deficit events.
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ISSN:0309-1708
1872-9657
DOI:10.1016/j.advwatres.2018.03.016