Resilience-based performance metrics for water resources management under uncertainty

•New metrics for assessing resilience of long-term water supply/demand balance under uncertainty are proposed addressing different aspects of water deficits including duration, magnitude, frequency and volume of these events.•Metrics are tested, validated and demonstrated on a real Bristol Water sup...

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Published in:	Advances in water resources Vol. 116; pp. 18 - 28
Main Authors:	Roach, Tom, Kapelan, Zoran, Ledbetter, Ralph
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	Oxford Elsevier Ltd 01.06.2018 Elsevier Science Ltd
Subjects:	Case studies Climate change Climate change adaptation Duration Performance measurement Performance metrics Population growth Reliability Resilience Sensitivity analysis uncertainty United Kingdom Water conveyance Water deficit water management Water resources Water resources management Water supply United Kingdom Performance metrics Water resources management Reliability Climate change adaptation Water supply Resilience
ISSN:	0309-1708, 1872-9657
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Abstract	•New metrics for assessing resilience of long-term water supply/demand balance under uncertainty are proposed addressing different aspects of water deficits including duration, magnitude, frequency and volume of these events.•Metrics are tested, validated and demonstrated on a real Bristol Water supply system.•The key finding is that, unlike in current practice so far, multiple metrics covering different aspects of resilience should be used simultaneously for water resources management under uncertainty. This paper aims to develop new, resilience type metrics for long-term water resources management under uncertain climate change and population growth. Resilience is defined here as the ability of a water resources management system to ‘bounce back’, i.e. absorb and then recover from a water deficit event, restoring the normal system operation. Ten alternative metrics are proposed and analysed addressing a range of different resilience aspects including duration, magnitude, frequency and volume of related water deficit events. The metrics were analysed on a real-world case study of the Bristol Water supply system in the UK and compared with current practice. The analyses included an examination of metrics’ sensitivity and correlation, as well as a detailed examination into the behaviour of metrics during water deficit periods. The results obtained suggest that multiple metrics which cover different aspects of resilience should be used simultaneously when assessing the resilience of a water resources management system, leading to a more complete understanding of resilience compared with current practice approaches. It was also observed that calculating the total duration of a water deficit period provided a clearer and more consistent indication of system performance compared to splitting the deficit periods into the time to reach and time to recover from the worst deficit events.
AbstractList	This paper aims to develop new, resilience type metrics for long-term water resources management under uncertain climate change and population growth. Resilience is defined here as the ability of a water resources management system to ‘bounce back’, i.e. absorb and then recover from a water deficit event, restoring the normal system operation. Ten alternative metrics are proposed and analysed addressing a range of different resilience aspects including duration, magnitude, frequency and volume of related water deficit events. The metrics were analysed on a real-world case study of the Bristol Water supply system in the UK and compared with current practice. The analyses included an examination of metrics’ sensitivity and correlation, as well as a detailed examination into the behaviour of metrics during water deficit periods. The results obtained suggest that multiple metrics which cover different aspects of resilience should be used simultaneously when assessing the resilience of a water resources management system, leading to a more complete understanding of resilience compared with current practice approaches. It was also observed that calculating the total duration of a water deficit period provided a clearer and more consistent indication of system performance compared to splitting the deficit periods into the time to reach and time to recover from the worst deficit events. •New metrics for assessing resilience of long-term water supply/demand balance under uncertainty are proposed addressing different aspects of water deficits including duration, magnitude, frequency and volume of these events.•Metrics are tested, validated and demonstrated on a real Bristol Water supply system.•The key finding is that, unlike in current practice so far, multiple metrics covering different aspects of resilience should be used simultaneously for water resources management under uncertainty. This paper aims to develop new, resilience type metrics for long-term water resources management under uncertain climate change and population growth. Resilience is defined here as the ability of a water resources management system to ‘bounce back’, i.e. absorb and then recover from a water deficit event, restoring the normal system operation. Ten alternative metrics are proposed and analysed addressing a range of different resilience aspects including duration, magnitude, frequency and volume of related water deficit events. The metrics were analysed on a real-world case study of the Bristol Water supply system in the UK and compared with current practice. The analyses included an examination of metrics’ sensitivity and correlation, as well as a detailed examination into the behaviour of metrics during water deficit periods. The results obtained suggest that multiple metrics which cover different aspects of resilience should be used simultaneously when assessing the resilience of a water resources management system, leading to a more complete understanding of resilience compared with current practice approaches. It was also observed that calculating the total duration of a water deficit period provided a clearer and more consistent indication of system performance compared to splitting the deficit periods into the time to reach and time to recover from the worst deficit events.
Author	Roach, Tom Ledbetter, Ralph Kapelan, Zoran
Author_xml	– sequence: 1 givenname: Tom orcidid: 0000-0001-6333-5244 surname: Roach fullname: Roach, Tom email: tom.roach@atkinsglobal.com organization: University of Exeter, College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, Harrison Building, North Park Road, Exeter EX4 4QF, UK – sequence: 2 givenname: Zoran orcidid: 0000-0002-0934-4470 surname: Kapelan fullname: Kapelan, Zoran organization: University of Exeter, College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, Harrison Building, North Park Road, Exeter EX4 4QF, UK – sequence: 3 givenname: Ralph surname: Ledbetter fullname: Ledbetter, Ralph organization: HR Wallingford, Howbery Business Park, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxfordshire OX10 8BA, UK
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Snippet	•New metrics for assessing resilience of long-term water supply/demand balance under uncertainty are proposed addressing different aspects of water deficits... This paper aims to develop new, resilience type metrics for long-term water resources management under uncertain climate change and population growth....
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SubjectTerms	Case studies Climate change Climate change adaptation Duration Performance measurement Performance metrics Population growth Reliability Resilience Sensitivity analysis uncertainty United Kingdom Water conveyance Water deficit water management Water resources Water resources management Water supply
Title	Resilience-based performance metrics for water resources management under uncertainty
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