Climate warming increases extreme daily wildfire growth risk in California
California has experienced enhanced extreme wildfire behaviour in recent years 1 – 3 , leading to substantial loss of life and property 4 , 5 . Some portion of the change in wildfire behaviour is attributable to anthropogenic climate warming, but formally quantifying this contribution is difficult b...
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| Vydané v: | Nature (London) Ročník 621; číslo 7980; s. 760 - 766 |
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| Hlavní autori: | , , , , , , , |
| Médium: | Journal Article |
| Jazyk: | English |
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London
Nature Publishing Group UK
28.09.2023
Nature Publishing Group |
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| ISSN: | 0028-0836, 1476-4687, 1476-4687 |
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| Abstract | California has experienced enhanced extreme wildfire behaviour in recent years
1
–
3
, leading to substantial loss of life and property
4
,
5
. Some portion of the change in wildfire behaviour is attributable to anthropogenic climate warming, but formally quantifying this contribution is difficult because of numerous confounding factors
6
,
7
and because wildfires are below the grid scale of global climate models. Here we use machine learning to quantify empirical relationships between temperature (as well as the influence of temperature on aridity) and the risk of extreme daily wildfire growth (>10,000 acres) in California and find that the influence of temperature on the risk is primarily mediated through its influence on fuel moisture. We use the uncovered relationships to estimate the changes in extreme daily wildfire growth risk under anthropogenic warming by subjecting historical fires from 2003 to 2020 to differing background climatological temperatures and aridity conditions. We find that the influence of anthropogenic warming on the risk of extreme daily wildfire growth varies appreciably on a fire-by-fire and day-by-day basis, depending on whether or not climate warming pushes conditions over certain thresholds of aridity, such as 1.5 kPa of vapour-pressure deficit and 10% dead fuel moisture. So far, anthropogenic warming has enhanced the aggregate expected frequency of extreme daily wildfire growth by 25% (5–95 range of 14–36%), on average, relative to preindustrial conditions. But for some fires, there was approximately no change, and for other fires, the enhancement has been as much as 461%. When historical fires are subjected to a range of projected end-of-century conditions, the aggregate expected frequency of extreme daily wildfire growth events increases by 59% (5–95 range of 47–71%) under a low SSP1–2.6 emissions scenario compared with an increase of 172% (5–95 range of 156–188%) under a very high SSP5–8.5 emissions scenario, relative to preindustrial conditions.
Quantification of climate warming in California using machine learning shows increased daily wildfire growth risk by 25%, with an expected increase of 59% and 172% in 2100, for low- and very-high-emissions scenarios, respectively. |
|---|---|
| AbstractList | California has experienced enhanced extreme wildfire behaviour in recent years
1
–
3
, leading to substantial loss of life and property
4
,
5
. Some portion of the change in wildfire behaviour is attributable to anthropogenic climate warming, but formally quantifying this contribution is difficult because of numerous confounding factors
6
,
7
and because wildfires are below the grid scale of global climate models. Here we use machine learning to quantify empirical relationships between temperature (as well as the influence of temperature on aridity) and the risk of extreme daily wildfire growth (>10,000 acres) in California and find that the influence of temperature on the risk is primarily mediated through its influence on fuel moisture. We use the uncovered relationships to estimate the changes in extreme daily wildfire growth risk under anthropogenic warming by subjecting historical fires from 2003 to 2020 to differing background climatological temperatures and aridity conditions. We find that the influence of anthropogenic warming on the risk of extreme daily wildfire growth varies appreciably on a fire-by-fire and day-by-day basis, depending on whether or not climate warming pushes conditions over certain thresholds of aridity, such as 1.5 kPa of vapour-pressure deficit and 10% dead fuel moisture. So far, anthropogenic warming has enhanced the aggregate expected frequency of extreme daily wildfire growth by 25% (5–95 range of 14–36%), on average, relative to preindustrial conditions. But for some fires, there was approximately no change, and for other fires, the enhancement has been as much as 461%. When historical fires are subjected to a range of projected end-of-century conditions, the aggregate expected frequency of extreme daily wildfire growth events increases by 59% (5–95 range of 47–71%) under a low SSP1–2.6 emissions scenario compared with an increase of 172% (5–95 range of 156–188%) under a very high SSP5–8.5 emissions scenario, relative to preindustrial conditions.
Quantification of climate warming in California using machine learning shows increased daily wildfire growth risk by 25%, with an expected increase of 59% and 172% in 2100, for low- and very-high-emissions scenarios, respectively. California has experienced enhanced extreme wildfire behaviour in recent years13, leading to substantial loss of life and property45. Some portion ofthe change in wildfire behaviour is attributable to anthropogenic climate warming, but formally quantifying this contribution is difficult because of numerous confounding factors· · 6 7 and because wildfires are below the grid scale of global climate models. Here we use machine learningto quantify empirical relationships between temperature (as well as the influence oftemperature on aridity) and the risk of extreme daily wildfire growth (>10,000 acres) in California and find thatthe influence oftemperature on the riskis primarily mediated through its influence on fuel moisture. We use the uncovered relationships to estimate the changes in extreme daily wildfire growth risk under anthropogenic warming by subjecting historical fires from 2003 to 2020 to differing background climatological temperatures and aridity conditions. We find that the influence of anthropogenic warming on the risk of extreme daily wildfire growth varies appreciably on a fire-by-fire and day-by-day basis, depending on whether or not climate warming pushes conditions over certain thresholds of aridity, such as 1.5 kPa ofvapour-pressure deficit and 10% dead fuel moisture. So far, anthropogenic warming has enhanced the aggregate expected frequency of extreme daily wildfire growth by 25% (5-95 range of 14-36%), on average, relative to preindustrial conditions. But for some fires, there was approximately no change, and for other fires, the enhancement has been as much as 461%. When historical fires are subjected to a range of projected end-of-century conditions, the aggregate expected frequency of extreme daily wildfire growth events increases by 59% (5-95 range of 47-71%) under a low SSP1-2.6 emissions scenario compared with an increase of 172% (5-95 range of156-188%) under a very high SSP5-8.5 emissions scenario, relative to preindustrial conditions. California has experienced enhanced extreme wildfire behaviour in recent years1-3, leading to substantial loss of life and property4,5. Some portion of the change in wildfire behaviour is attributable to anthropogenic climate warming, but formally quantifying this contribution is difficult because of numerous confounding factors6,7 and because wildfires are below the grid scale of global climate models. Here we use machine learning to quantify empirical relationships between temperature (as well as the influence of temperature on aridity) and the risk of extreme daily wildfire growth (>10,000 acres) in California and find that the influence of temperature on the risk is primarily mediated through its influence on fuel moisture. We use the uncovered relationships to estimate the changes in extreme daily wildfire growth risk under anthropogenic warming by subjecting historical fires from 2003 to 2020 to differing background climatological temperatures and aridity conditions. We find that the influence of anthropogenic warming on the risk of extreme daily wildfire growth varies appreciably on a fire-by-fire and day-by-day basis, depending on whether or not climate warming pushes conditions over certain thresholds of aridity, such as 1.5 kPa of vapour-pressure deficit and 10% dead fuel moisture. So far, anthropogenic warming has enhanced the aggregate expected frequency of extreme daily wildfire growth by 25% (5-95 range of 14-36%), on average, relative to preindustrial conditions. But for some fires, there was approximately no change, and for other fires, the enhancement has been as much as 461%. When historical fires are subjected to a range of projected end-of-century conditions, the aggregate expected frequency of extreme daily wildfire growth events increases by 59% (5-95 range of 47-71%) under a low SSP1-2.6 emissions scenario compared with an increase of 172% (5-95 range of 156-188%) under a very high SSP5-8.5 emissions scenario, relative to preindustrial conditions.California has experienced enhanced extreme wildfire behaviour in recent years1-3, leading to substantial loss of life and property4,5. Some portion of the change in wildfire behaviour is attributable to anthropogenic climate warming, but formally quantifying this contribution is difficult because of numerous confounding factors6,7 and because wildfires are below the grid scale of global climate models. Here we use machine learning to quantify empirical relationships between temperature (as well as the influence of temperature on aridity) and the risk of extreme daily wildfire growth (>10,000 acres) in California and find that the influence of temperature on the risk is primarily mediated through its influence on fuel moisture. We use the uncovered relationships to estimate the changes in extreme daily wildfire growth risk under anthropogenic warming by subjecting historical fires from 2003 to 2020 to differing background climatological temperatures and aridity conditions. We find that the influence of anthropogenic warming on the risk of extreme daily wildfire growth varies appreciably on a fire-by-fire and day-by-day basis, depending on whether or not climate warming pushes conditions over certain thresholds of aridity, such as 1.5 kPa of vapour-pressure deficit and 10% dead fuel moisture. So far, anthropogenic warming has enhanced the aggregate expected frequency of extreme daily wildfire growth by 25% (5-95 range of 14-36%), on average, relative to preindustrial conditions. But for some fires, there was approximately no change, and for other fires, the enhancement has been as much as 461%. When historical fires are subjected to a range of projected end-of-century conditions, the aggregate expected frequency of extreme daily wildfire growth events increases by 59% (5-95 range of 47-71%) under a low SSP1-2.6 emissions scenario compared with an increase of 172% (5-95 range of 156-188%) under a very high SSP5-8.5 emissions scenario, relative to preindustrial conditions. California has experienced enhanced extreme wildfire behaviour in recent years , leading to substantial loss of life and property . Some portion of the change in wildfire behaviour is attributable to anthropogenic climate warming, but formally quantifying this contribution is difficult because of numerous confounding factors and because wildfires are below the grid scale of global climate models. Here we use machine learning to quantify empirical relationships between temperature (as well as the influence of temperature on aridity) and the risk of extreme daily wildfire growth (>10,000 acres) in California and find that the influence of temperature on the risk is primarily mediated through its influence on fuel moisture. We use the uncovered relationships to estimate the changes in extreme daily wildfire growth risk under anthropogenic warming by subjecting historical fires from 2003 to 2020 to differing background climatological temperatures and aridity conditions. We find that the influence of anthropogenic warming on the risk of extreme daily wildfire growth varies appreciably on a fire-by-fire and day-by-day basis, depending on whether or not climate warming pushes conditions over certain thresholds of aridity, such as 1.5 kPa of vapour-pressure deficit and 10% dead fuel moisture. So far, anthropogenic warming has enhanced the aggregate expected frequency of extreme daily wildfire growth by 25% (5-95 range of 14-36%), on average, relative to preindustrial conditions. But for some fires, there was approximately no change, and for other fires, the enhancement has been as much as 461%. When historical fires are subjected to a range of projected end-of-century conditions, the aggregate expected frequency of extreme daily wildfire growth events increases by 59% (5-95 range of 47-71%) under a low SSP1-2.6 emissions scenario compared with an increase of 172% (5-95 range of 156-188%) under a very high SSP5-8.5 emissions scenario, relative to preindustrial conditions. |
| Author | Hanley, Holt Kochanski, Adam K. Clements, Craig B. Davis, Steven J. Mahesh, Ankur Brown, Patrick T. Reed, Colorado Strenfel, Scott J. |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Patrick T. orcidid: 0000-0002-5058-1718 surname: Brown fullname: Brown, Patrick T. email: Patrick@thebreakthrough.org organization: Climate and Energy Team, The Breakthrough Institute, Wildfire Interdisciplinary Research Center (WIRC), San José State University, Energy Policy and Climate Program, Johns Hopkins University – sequence: 2 givenname: Holt surname: Hanley fullname: Hanley, Holt organization: Wildfire Interdisciplinary Research Center (WIRC), San José State University, Department of Meteorology and Climate Science, San José State University, KSBW News – sequence: 3 givenname: Ankur surname: Mahesh fullname: Mahesh, Ankur organization: Climate and Ecosystems Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Earth and Planetary Science, University of California, Berkeley – sequence: 4 givenname: Colorado surname: Reed fullname: Reed, Colorado organization: Electrical Engineering and Computer Sciences, University of California, Berkeley – sequence: 5 givenname: Scott J. surname: Strenfel fullname: Strenfel, Scott J. organization: Pacific Gas and Electric Company – sequence: 6 givenname: Steven J. orcidid: 0000-0002-9338-0844 surname: Davis fullname: Davis, Steven J. organization: Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine – sequence: 7 givenname: Adam K. surname: Kochanski fullname: Kochanski, Adam K. organization: Wildfire Interdisciplinary Research Center (WIRC), San José State University, Department of Meteorology and Climate Science, San José State University – sequence: 8 givenname: Craig B. surname: Clements fullname: Clements, Craig B. organization: Wildfire Interdisciplinary Research Center (WIRC), San José State University, Department of Meteorology and Climate Science, San José State University |
| BackLink | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37648863$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed |
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| Copyright_xml | – notice: The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited 2023. Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law. – notice: 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited. – notice: Copyright Nature Publishing Group Sep 28, 2023 |
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| DOI | 10.1038/s41586-023-06444-3 |
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| Snippet | California has experienced enhanced extreme wildfire behaviour in recent years
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–
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, leading to substantial loss of life and property
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,
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. Some portion of... California has experienced enhanced extreme wildfire behaviour in recent years , leading to substantial loss of life and property . Some portion of the change... California has experienced enhanced extreme wildfire behaviour in recent years13, leading to substantial loss of life and property45. Some portion ofthe change... California has experienced enhanced extreme wildfire behaviour in recent years1-3, leading to substantial loss of life and property4,5. Some portion of the... |
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| SubjectTerms | 704/106/694/2786 704/106/694/674 Anthropogenic factors Aridity California Climate change Climate Models Climatic extremes Droughts - statistics & numerical data Emissions Forest & brush fires Fuels Global climate Global climate models Global warming Global Warming - statistics & numerical data Greenhouse gases Human Activities Human influences Humanities and Social Sciences Humans Humidity Machine Learning Moisture multidisciplinary Physics Risk Risk Assessment Science Science (multidisciplinary) Temperature Variables Wildfires Wildfires - statistics & numerical data |
| Title | Climate warming increases extreme daily wildfire growth risk in California |
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