Establishment of a deformation forecasting model for a step-like landslide based on decision tree C5.0 and two-step cluster algorithms: a case study in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, China

This study presents a hybrid approach based on two-step cluster and decision tree C5.0 algorithms to establish a deformation forecasting model for a step-like landslide. The Zhujiadian landslide, a typical step-like landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, was selected as a case study. Approxim...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Landslides Vol. 14; no. 3; pp. 1275 - 1281
Main Authors: Ma, Junwei, Tang, Huiming, Liu, Xiao, Hu, Xinli, Sun, Miaojun, Song, Youjian
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: Berlin/Heidelberg Springer Berlin Heidelberg 01.06.2017
Springer Nature B.V
Subjects:
Agriculture
Algorithms
Area
Canyons
Case studies
Civil Engineering
Clusters
Decision making
Decision trees
Deformation
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Forecasting
Forecasting techniques
Geography
Hydrologic models
Hydrology
Landslide effects
Landslides
Natural Hazards
Precipitation
Rain
Rainfall
Reservoirs
Technical Note
Water level fluctuations
Water levels
Three Gorges Dam
China
Two-step cluster
Three Gorges Reservoir area
Deformation forecasting
Decision tree C5.0
Step-like landslide
ISSN:1612-510X, 1612-5118
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:This study presents a hybrid approach based on two-step cluster and decision tree C5.0 algorithms to establish a deformation forecasting model for a step-like landslide. The Zhujiadian landslide, a typical step-like landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, was selected as a case study. Approximately , 6  years of historical records of landslide displacement, precipitation , and reservoir level were used to build the forecasting model. The forecasting model consisted of seven comprehensive rules governing hydrologic parameters and their magnitudes and was developed to predict landslide deformation. This model was applied to rapidly forecast the likelihood of step-like landslide deformation resulting from rainfall and water level fluctuations in the Three Gorges Reservoir area. Given the satisfactory accuracy of the trained model, the presented approach can be used to establish forecasting models for step-like landslides and to facilitate rapid decision making.
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ISSN:1612-510X
1612-5118
DOI:10.1007/s10346-017-0804-0