This time is different eight centuries of financial folly.
Throughout history, rich and poor countries alike have been lending, borrowing, crashing--and recovering--their way through an extraordinary range of financial crises. Each time, the experts have chimed, "this time is different"--claiming that the old rules of valuation no longer apply and...
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| Hlavní autoři: | , |
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| Médium: | E-kniha |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
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Princeton
Princeton University Press
2009
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| Vydání: | 1 |
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| ISBN: | 9780691142166, 0691152640, 9780691152646, 0691142165 |
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- This time is different: eight centuries of financial folly -- CONTENTS -- TABLES -- FIGURES -- BOXES -- PREFACE -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- PREAMBLE: SOME INITIAL INTUITIONS ON FINANCIAL FRAGILITY AND THE FICKLE NATURE OF CONFIDENCE -- PART I: FINANCIAL CRISES: AN OPERATIONAL PRIMER -- 1. VARIETIES OF CRISES AND THEIR DATES -- 2. DEBT INTOLERANCE: THE GENESIS OF SERIAL DEFAULT -- 3. A GLOBAL DATABASE ON FINANCIAL CRISES WITH A LONG-TERM VIEW -- PART II: SOVEREIGN EXTERNAL DEBT CRISES -- 4. A DIGRESSION ON THE THEORETICAL UNDERPINNINGS OF DEBT CRISES -- 5. CYCLES OF SOVEREIGN DEFAULT ON EXTERNAL DEBT -- 6. EXTERNAL DEFAULT THROUGH HISTORY -- PART III: THE FORGOTTEN HISTORY OF DOMESTIC DEBT AND DEFAULT -- 7. THE STYLIZED FACTS OF DOMESTIC DEBT AND DEFAULT -- 8. DOMESTIC DEBT: THE MISSING LINK EXPLAINING EXTERNAL DEFAULT AND HIGH INFLATION -- 9. DOMESTIC AND EXTERNAL DEFAULT: WHICH IS WORSE? WHO IS SENIOR? -- PART IV: BANKING CRISES, INFLATION, AND CURRENCY CRASHES -- 10. BANKING CRISES -- 11. DEFAULT THROUGH DEBASEMENT: AN -- 12. INFLATION AND MODERN CURRENCY CRASHES -- PART V: THE U.S. SUBPRIME MELTDOWN AND THE SECOND GREAT CONTRACTION -- 13. THE U.S. SUBPRIME CRISIS: AN INTERNATIONAL AND HISTORICAL COMPARISON -- 14. THE AFTERMATH OF FINANCIAL CRISES -- 15. THE INTERNATIONAL DIMENSIONS OF THE SUBPRIME CRISIS: THE RESULTS OF CONTAGION OR COMMON FUNDAMENTALS? -- 16. COMPOSITE MEASURES OF FINANCIAL TURMOIL -- PART VI: WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED? -- 17. REFLECTIONS ON EARLY WARNINGS, GRADUATION ,POLICY RESPONSES, AND THE FOIBLES OF HUMAN NATURE -- DATA APPENDIXES -- APPENDIX A.1: MACROECONOMIC TIME SERIES -- APPENDIX A.2: PUBLIC DEBT -- APPENDIX A.3: DATES OF BANKING CRISES -- APPENDIX A.4: HISTORICAL SUMMARIES OF BANKING CRISES -- NOTES -- REFERENCES -- NAME INDEX
- Cover Title Page, Copyright, Dedication Contents Tables Figures Boxes Preface Acknowledgments Preamble: Some Initial Intuitions on Financial Fragility and the Fickle Nature of Confidence PART I: Financial Crises: An Operational Primer 1: Varieties of Crises and Their Dates 2: Debt Intolerance: The Genesis of Serial Default 3: A Global Database on Financial Crises with a Long-Term View PART II: Sovereign External Debt Crises 4: A Digression on the Theoretical Underpinnings of Debt Crises 5: Cycles of Sovereign Default on External Debt 6: External Default Through History PART III: The Forgotten History of Domestic Debt and Default 7: The Stylized Facts of Domestic Debt and Default 8: Domestic Debt: The Missing Link Explaining External Default and High Inflation 9: Domestic and External Default: Which Is Worse? Who Is Senior? PART IV: Banking Crises, Inflation, and Currency Crashes 10: Banking Crises 11: Default Through Debasement: An “Old World” Favorite 12: Inflation and Modern Currency Crashes PART V: The U.S. Subprime Meltdown and the Second Great Contraction 13: The U.S. Subprime Crisis: An International and Historical Comparison 14: The Aftermath of Financial Crises 15: The International Dimensions of the Subprime Crisis: The Results of Contagion or Common Fundamentals? 16: Composite Measures of Financial Turmoil PART VI: What Have We Learned? 17: Reflections on Early Warnings, Graduation, Policy Responses, and The Foibles of Human Nature Data Appendixes Notes References Name Index Subject Index
- 14. The Aftermath of Financial Crises -- Historical Episodes Revisited -- The Downturn after a Crisis: Depth and Duration -- The Fiscal Legacy of Crises -- Sovereign Risk -- Comparisons with Experiences from the First Great Contraction in the 1930s -- Concluding Remarks -- 15. The International Dimensions of the Subprime Crisis: The Results of Contagion or Common Fundamentals? -- Concepts of Contagion -- Selected Earlier Episodes -- Common Fundamentals and the Second Great Contraction -- Are More Spillovers Under Way? -- 16. Composite Measures of Financial Turmoil -- Developing a Composite Index of Crises: The BCDI Index -- Defining a Global Financial Crisis -- The Sequencing of Crises: A Prototype -- Summary -- Part VI. What Have We Learned? -- 17. Reflections on Early Warnings, Graduation, Policy Responses, and The Foibles of Human Nature -- On Early Warnings of Crises -- The Role of International Institutions -- Graduation -- Some Observations on Policy Responses -- The Latest Version of the This-Time-Is-Different Syndrome -- Data Appendixes -- A.1. Macroeconomic Time Series -- A.2. Public Debt -- A.3. Dates of Banking Crises -- A.4. Historical Summaries of Banking Crises -- Notes -- References -- Name Index -- Subject Index
- Cover -- Contents -- List of Tables -- List of Figures -- List of Boxes -- Preface -- Acknowledgments -- Preamble: Some Initial Intuitions on Financial Fragility and the Fickle Nature of Confidence -- Part I. Financial Crises: An Operational Primer -- 1. Varieties of Crises and Their Dates -- Crises Defined by Quantitative Thresholds: Inflation, Currency Crashes, and Debasement -- Crises Defined by Events: Banking Crises and External and Domestic Default -- Other Key Concepts -- 2. Debt Intolerance: The Genesis of Serial Default -- Debt Thresholds -- Measuring Vulnerability -- Clubs and Regions -- Reflections on Debt Intolerance -- 3. A Global Database on Financial Crises with a Long-Term View -- Prices, Exchange Rates, Currency Debasement, and Real GDP -- Government Finances and National Accounts -- Public Debt and Its Composition -- Global Variables -- Country Coverage -- Part II. Sovereign External Debt Crises -- 4. A Digression on the Theoretical Underpinnings of Debt Crises -- Sovereign Lending -- Illiquidity versus Insolvency -- Partial Default and Rescheduling -- Odious Debt -- Domestic Public Debt -- Conclusions -- 5. Cycles of Sovereign Default on External Debt -- Recurring Patterns -- Default and Banking Crises -- Default and Inflation -- 6. External Default through History -- The Early History of Serial Default: Emerging Europe, 1300-1799 -- Capital Inflows and Default: An "Old World" Story -- External Sovereign Default after 1800: A Global Picture -- Part III. The Forgotten History of Domestic Debt and Default -- 7. The Stylized Facts of Domestic Debt and Default -- Domestic and External Debt -- Maturity, Rates of Return, and Currency Composition -- Episodes of Domestic Default -- Some Caveats Regarding Domestic Debt -- 8. Domestic Debt: The Missing Link Explaining External Default and High Inflation
- Understanding the Debt Intolerance Puzzle -- Domestic Debt on the Eve and in the Aftermath of External Default -- The Literature on Inflation and the "Inflation Tax" -- Defining the Tax Base: Domestic Debt or the Monetary Base? -- The "Temptation to Inflate" Revisited -- 9. Domestic and External Default: Which Is Worse? Who Is Senior? -- Real GDP in the Run-up to and the Aftermath of Debt Defaults -- Inflation in the Run-up to and the Aftermath of Debt Defaults -- The Incidence of Default on Debts Owed to External and Domestic Creditors -- Summary and Discussion of Selected Issues -- Part IV. Banking Crises, Inflation, and Currency Crashes -- 10. Banking Crises -- A Preamble on the Theory of Banking Crises -- Banking Crises: An Equal-Opportunity Menace -- Banking Crises, Capital Mobility, and Financial Liberalization -- Capital Flow Bonanzas, Credit Cycles, and Asset Prices -- Overcapacity Bubbles in the Financial Industry? -- The Fiscal Legacy of Financial Crises Revisited -- Living with the Wreckage: Some Observations -- 11. Default through Debasement: An "Old World Favorite" -- 12. Inflation and Modern Currency Crashes -- An Early History of Inflation Crises -- Modern Inflation Crises: Regional Comparisons -- Currency Crashes -- The Aftermath of High Inflation and Currency Collapses -- Undoing Domestic Dollarization -- Part V. The U.S. Subprime Meltdown and the Second Great Contraction -- 13. The U.S. Subprime Crisis: An International and Historical Comparison -- A Global Historical View of the Subprime Crisis and Its Aftermath -- The This-Time-Is-Different Syndrome and the Run-up to the Subprime Crisis -- Risks Posed by Sustained U.S. Borrowing from the Rest of the World: The Debate before the Crisis -- The Episodes of Postwar Bank-Centered Financial Crisis -- A Comparison of the Subprime Crisis with Past Crises in Advanced Economies -- Summary